Considering the events that transpired over the weekend in the Mideast and the ongoing conflict with Iran we want to reach out and offer some perspective. Firstly, we send our sympathies to the families of the American servicepeople lost in battle and those injured as well as to the innocent bystanders in Iran, Israel and elsewhere harmed in this conflict. With that we want to be sure that we all take a measured approach to the markets in response to the conflict in Iran.
Last night as we were discussing the situation and evaluating the market reaction we noted around dinnertime in New York the DJIA futures were down about 500 points and West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) was about $72 per barrel. At this writing (about 12:30pm EST) WTI is about $70.50 per barrel and DJIA is down about 50 points. S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are all green. The VIX CBOE Volatility Index sits at 21 up 5.7% from Friday after hitting an intraday high today just over 25.
It is still extremely early on in this conflict, and we have no idea how this will play out or end up, but if the situation was dire the stock market would be down dramatically and oil would be at least $10-$20 higher. That is not to say there is no disruption. There are reports that European gas prices are up 50% after Qatar shut the world's largest LNG (liquid natural gas) export plant. Meanwhile, natural gas futures here in The States are up less than 3%.
It is rather remarkable that so much has been thrown at this market: Venezuela, SCOTUS tariff decision, AI disruption to software and banks and the S&P 500 is flat on the year and up fractionally now, today. This speaks volumes to a resilient economy and healthy sector rotation in a continuing bull market. The broad participation is illustrated by the improved market breadth readings we have been highlighting recently.
History of Conflict & Market Reaction
The Iran conflict has driven intense media attention over the past 48 hours. While the geopolitical backdrop is serious and rapidly developing, market behavior remains more measured than headlines suggest. Below is our data-driven view of what is happening — and what history tells us to expect. Nothing in the price action suggests a systemic crisis. If the Strait of Hormuz were fully blocked and markets anticipated a prolonged disruption, oil would likely be $90–100, or more, not $70–80.
In the accompanying table we compiled the relevant historical geopolitical events that had an impact on energy prices and/or sovereign boundaries. As you can see, the more drawn-out crises were accompanied by weaker markets.
Arguably back in 2014 Putin stopped in Crimea due to plunging oil prices hurting his coffers. While the 2022 Russia incursion into Ukraine lasted throughout 2022 and arguably had some adverse effect on market prices, the economic backdrop was much weaker in 2022. The U.S. had just posted a negative Q1 GDP print. The economy was coming off the “punch-bowl high” of massive COVID stimulus — and that liquidity had started drying up. You could see the writing on the wall that inflation was about to surge.
In other words, the macro foundation was fragile even before Russia invaded Ukraine. So, the market was already vulnerable when the geopolitical shock hit. 2022 was a structurally weak, inflation-heavy, liquidity-tightening environment — so the Ukraine invasion hit an already fragile market. In 2026, the economic base is stronger, energy markets are more resilient, and the shock hasn’t broken anything fundamental.
We have also added the Gaza War that began on October 7 to the table. This was arguably the start of the chain of events leading to today’s situation. It marked the beginning of the broader Middle East conflict over the past two and a half years. The Gaza War set off a chain reaction that ultimately led into the broader regional instability we are now seeing with Iran. On October 7, 2023, the S&P was already declining from its August 1 peak. S&P bottomed out three weeks later on October 27, 2023, at 4117.37, suffering a 10% correction. S&P was 32% higher 12 months later.
Both Ukraine and Gaza are still ongoing, but their initial impacts to global equity and energy markets have waned.
Remain Calm, Stick to the Data
This is a serious geopolitical moment, and we continue to hope for safety for civilians and service members across the region. But from an investment standpoint, today’s moves fit squarely within the historical norms of geopolitical shocks and energy crises.
Bottom line: This is not a time to panic. Volatility was expected — and has been contained. So far, nothing in the market suggests this is the beginning of a major bear market or a replay of past energy crises. We continue to advise ignoring the noise. Stay disciplined and data-driven. Remain patient — history overwhelmingly shows markets recover quickly from these events unless they expand dramatically. We will update you again as clarity improves.
Monthly Member Webinar Reminder & Invite
If you have not already done so, please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, March 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, at 4:00 PM EST here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for March 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. They will also share assessments of the Iran conflict, economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
If you have previously registered, please kindly disregard this reminder.