ETF Trades & Updates: Utilities & Tech By: Christopher Mistal | March 05, 2026 | Email | Print

For those who were unable to attend the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). The webinar kicked off with an in-depth review of how the market has responded to past war, geopolitical and energy crises. Since 1979, the market has generally proven resilient as long as the crisis did not spill over into the broader U.S. economy. Impacts of war and past energy crises also tended to be limited when the U.S. was on reasonably firm economic footing from the onset, which recent data has generally been supportive of.

 

Jeff also noted that war has, sadly, been common in past midterm election years (page 28 STA 2026). War has been a factor and has contributed to the “Weak Spot” of the 4-year presidential election cycle. However, that weakness has also set up the market for the “Sweet Spot” (page 46 STA 2026). This is why we are still sticking with our 2026 Annual Forecast Base Case Scenario for full-year market gains in the 8-12% range. Key levels to watch are December’s closing lows for DJIA and S&P 500 at 47289 and 6721 respectively. NASDAQ’s level to watch is it’s November closing low at 22078.

 

 

There are two sectors that begin their seasonally favorable periods in March: High-Tech and Utilities. As we detail in the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2026, on page 94 “Sector Seasonality”, we typically present the trade setups in advance of when the seasonality begins. This year we are going to focus on the Utilities sector as it has held up well during recent weakness and it also appears to be benefiting from AI data center demand. Utilities are generally considered a defensive sector and are often a respectable performer during the “Worst Months,” May through October.

 

In the following weekly bar chart of the Utility Sector Index (UTY), seasonal strength (lower pane, shaded in yellow) typically begins following an early or mid-March bottom and usually lasts through early October although the majority of the move can be completed by sometime in late May or early June. Recent volatile trading has impacted the seasonal pattern in the lower pane of the chart. Typically, the pattern is less choppy as the sector does not usually experience major price swings in a year. Looking at the upper pane, last year’s nearly textbook move resulted in UTY hitting its annual high in late October. Last year’s low was in early April as Liberation Day tariffs sparked a brisk sell-off. This year, UTY appears to have gotten off to an early start with a healthy move higher in February. 

 

 

With nearly $25 billion in assets and ample average daily trading volume, SPDR Utilities (XLU) is our top choice once again to consider holding during Utilities’ seasonally favorable period. It has a gross expense ratio of just 0.08% and a relatively attractive yield around 2.5%. Top five holdings include: NextEra Energy, Southern Co, Duke Energy, Constellation Energy, and American Electric Power.

 

XLU could be considered with a buy limit of $47.10. This price is slightly above today’s close (March 5) as it appears XLU is currently consolidating its February gains. Based upon its 25-year average return of 9.32% (excluding dividends and trading fees) during its favorable period mid-March to the beginning of October, set an auto-sell price at $61.79. If purchased an initial stop loss of $41.57 is suggested.

 

 

Our favorite ETF to trade Infotech’s seasonal strength from mid-March through the beginning of July is iShares DJ US Tech (IYW). Our existing position was still down 3.6% as of the close on March 4 but posted a gain today. With NASDAQ’s Best Months lasting through June, and tech shares showing improvement today, IYW can be considered near current levels up to a buy limit of $190.10. SPDR Technology (XLK) can also be considered at or near current levels up to a buy limit of $140.00.

 

 

Two sector seasonalities are scheduled to end during March. The first is a Computer Tech short trade. We passed on this trade setup earlier this year and do not have a corresponding position. The second sector is Biotech. Sell iShares Biotech (IBB) and SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI). As of the close on March 4, IBB and XBI were up an average of 18.7%. This is comfortably above the 11.2% average for the Biotech sector over the past 25 years. For tracking purposes, IBB and XBI will be closed out of the portfolio using their respective average prices on Friday March 6.

 

Of the two new trade ideas targeting Natural Gas presented last month, United States Natural Gas (UNG) was added to the portfolio on February 9 using its average price when it gapped below its buy limit of $13.20. UNG can still be considered at current levels. Thus far, natural gas price has not responded to potential supply disruptions due to war with Iran, but that could change quickly especially as the conflict persists and reserves are consumed.

 

First Trust Natural Gas (FCG), the other new trade from last month, has not been added to the portfolio yet. FCG does have exposure to crude oil and crude’s price was climbing in February as the U.S. was building up military assets in advance of war. With actual conflict commencing, crude has only surged higher. FCG can be considered at current levels up to a new buy limit of $29.00.

 

While on the subject of crude oil, the auto-sell price for SPDR Energy (XLE) has been increased to $63.67. For XLE we want to use the auto-sell price as a level to watch and potentially act at or nearby. If the auto-sell price is reached, consider taking profits on the position and/or implementing a tight trailing stop loss.

 

Per last month’s update, iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was closed out of the portfolio on February 6 at $339.50 for an 18.5% gain. SOXX did trade higher, later in February, but as of today’s close it is back below the portfolio’s exit price.

 

All other positions not previously mentioned are on Hold. Please note, some stop losses have been updated to align with current prices.

 

 

 

Thus far the market has proven resilient. S&P 500 is still in one of its narrowest three-month trading ranges in years despite AI spending and disruption fears, growing private credit concerns, and war with Iran. S&P 500’s February 5, closing low is still holding and technology displayed some signs of life today with IYW and XLK posting modest gains.

 

As a reminder, positions in the Tactical Switching Strategy portfolio are intended to be held until we issue corresponding Seasonal MACD Sell Signals on or after April 1 for DJIA and S&P 500 and on or after June 1 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000. With DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months” possibly ending in a month, DIA and SPY are on Hold. However, with two additional months for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, QQQ and IWM can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits.