New Stock Trades & Portfolio Updates: Utilities Stability By: Christopher Mistal | March 12, 2026 | Email | Print

In an effort to expand and provide additional insights into how the S&P 500 has performed during past war, geopolitical and energy crises, we have updated the crises table to include the current Iran war and a comparison to all time periods’ performance since 1930. As the market nears the 2-week point since the war began, S&P 500 is down 3% as of today’s close as it battles the surge in crude oil price. This is roughly in line with average performance for all crises in the table.

 

 

In this next chart we have plotted S&P 500 average performance before and after the start of all the crises included in the above table. Each month in the chart uses 21 trading days as this is the average number of trading days in a month. The gray dashed line represents the average of all rolling 7-month periods beginning in 1930 and serves as the baseline.

 

 

When presented in this manner, the S&P 500 generally hit its low around 13 to 15 trading days after the crisis began. If the current crisis follows a similar path, the market’s low could occur sometime next week. By the + 1 Month point in the chart, the most encouraging outcome would be for S&P 500 to be back above its pre-crisis close, its February 27 close at 6878.88.

 

 

Per last month’s update, all remaining Free Lunch stocks were closed out of the portfolio using their respective average prices on Friday February 13. That mid-February exit has proved rather timely as just one of the seven remaining positions is higher now, EOG Resources (EOG) and three have fallen below their respective prices from December 20. Overall, this Free Lunch basket was disappointing and produced just a 0.4% gain excluding any dividends or trading costs. However, compared to NASDAQ’s 3.3% loss over the same period (December 19, 2025, through February 13, 2026), the basket’s result did yield some outperformance.

 

 

Last week in the ETF Trades email Issue, strength in the Utilities sector historically beginning in March and lasting until around the beginning of October was presented. Expanding upon this historical seasonal strength we selected seven new stock trade ideas from the Utility sector for the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio. The seven new stocks are highlighted in gray in the portfolio table below along with their respective buy limits and stop losses.

 

Utilities have generally been considered defensive and have a track record of performing during periods of market uncertainty and during the “Worst Months.” Utility stocks typically have respectable dividends, and yield was considered during the selection and screening process. Ownership, operation, and/or a connection to nuclear energy were also desired but not required to be selected. The names selected are likely familiar and that was another trait given consideration.

 

All seven of the new Utility sector stocks shaded in gray can be considered at or near current prices up to their respective buy limits. For tracking purposes, they will be added to the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio using their average daily price on March 13 and will allocate a hypothetical $3000 from the cash position in the stock portfolio to each position.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on March 11, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 1.4% lower, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, compared to a 2.4% decline by S&P 500 and a 4.7% loss by Russell 2000 over the same time. Across the portfolio, small-, mid-, and large-cap positions all declined on average while the cash portion of the portfolio expanded. As a reminder, we are not targeting a cash allocation percentage and the current balance is just the result of closing out Free Lunch positions, stop losses being triggered, and profit taking.  

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) remains on Hold. It has been a painful endeavor holding HWAIF but there may finally be some light at the end of the long, dark tunnel now that they have signed a multi-million-dollar software contract. Details are still limited but it does appear as though HWAIF has expanded it footprint in the U.S. We welcome the news and look forward to hearing additional details while awaiting their next earnings release on March 19.

 

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) was stopped out on March 5 when it closed below its stop loss. Shares had been performing well until earnings were released on February 26. Revenues and earnings were up but below consensus estimates. And despite affirming guidance for 2026 COLL still sold off.

 

ICICI Bank ADR (IBN) was stopped out on March 11. Shares had been weak even before the Iran war began but the resultant surge in oil price has weighed heavily on Asian countries due to their higher reliance on energy imports.

 

Per last month’s Stock Portfolio update, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and CBRE Group (CBRE) have been closed out of the portfolio. JLL and CBRE both closed below their respective stop losses on February 12 as fears of an AI industry disruption spilled over into real estate-related stocks. Since then, shares of JLL and CBRE have been mixed. JLL has rebounded modestly while CBRE has declined further. 

 

StoneX Group (SNEX) did close below its stop today, but we are not going to close the position. SNEX is on Hold. The selloff from the start of March appears overdone. Tokenized assets and digital asset lending are likely here to stay.

 

All positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent gains.