Iran War Update — Watching Key Support Levels By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | March 19, 2026 | Email | Print

Three weeks in and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran and its proxies have continued targeting vessels, U.S. military bases, Gulf energy infrastructure, northern Israel and U.S. positions in Iraq. The U.S. and Israel continue to conduct sustained large-scale airstrikes across Iran and Lebanon. 

 

That said, the worst of the oil price panic may be over. While WTI crude at ~$97 today is about 45% higher than the ~$67 it was before the war, price appears to have settled down into a range of $90-100 since the March 8 intraday spike to near $120. The panic spike has stalled. Oil has been grinding sideways rather than exploding higher, and futures margin requirements have been raised significantly, likely forcing out some of the most purely speculative money. That action in crude suggests the worst-case scenario is no longer viewed as the most likely. And even oil at $110 (or higher) for a short time is not likely to collapse the world economy overnight.

 

 

Since the December Low Indicator (DLI) triggered on March 12, the indexes have continued lower as we cautioned last week. Remember as we highlight on page 36 of the 2026 STA and in the February Outlook, when the market closed below its December Closing Low in the first quarter of the year, it dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for DJIA.

 

Now that DJIA is below this important DLI level of support around 47,250 it is testing the 45,000–46,000 zone that represents the confluence of the December 2024 and January 2025 highs, and the October–November 2025 support lows. If the market fails to hold these levels the next major support level would be near 42,000, which lines up with the December 2024-January 2025 lows. On the five-year chart, this area also aligns with the trendline running up from the bottom of 2022. DJIA 42,000 would be a 16.3% correction from the all-time closing high of 50,188.14 on February 10, 2026

 

 

 

S&P 500 is also now testing support near the October-November 2025 lows around 6500. Below that is 6200 around the end-of-July/first day-of August four-day correction and the bottom of the early July 2025 consolidation. Below that is the 6000 area near the June 2025 gap higher. S&P 500 at 6000 is a 14% correction from its January 27, 2026 high of 6978.60. NASDAQ support near its November closing low around 22,000 is currently being tested today. Support at the December 2024 lows and February 2025 highs around 20,200 looms below there. NASDAQ 20,200 would be a 15.7% correction from its all-time high of 23,958.47 on October 29, 2025.

 

 

 

If the market has not completed this pullback/correction and the conflict shows no signs of cooling by end of April, the seasonal headwinds of the midterm Q2–Q3 weak spot could compound the technical risk and those lower support levels — 6,200 on the S&P 500 and 42,000 on the DJIA — come into play. Watch 45,000 DJIA and 6,500 S&P 500 as the nearest lines in the sand, and when the VIX pushes above 30–35 and Investors Intelligence Bearish % overtakes Bullish %, that's historically the setup for a turn — we’re not there yet, so remain cautious.

 

 

 

Jeff will be speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Hollywood, Florida, April 9–11, and we’d love for you to join him. The event runs at the Diplomat Beach Resort right on the ocean — so if you’re looking for a reason to get down to the beach for spring break and talk markets, this is it.

 

Over three days you’ll hear from dozens of top financial analysts and portfolio managers covering the biggest investing and trading opportunities in 2026. There are also six MoneyMasters Courses on options, crypto, and more, plus evening networking events. It’s a serious conference in a great setting.

 

Here’s what Jeff will be presenting:

 

 

The old “Sell in May” rule is real — but it’s not the whole story, especially in a midterm year. Jeff’s talk will walk through what history actually shows about how markets behave when control of Congress is up for grabs, and why the second and third quarters of midterm years have historically been the weakest stretch of the entire 4-Year Presidential Cycle. The incumbent party’s policies come under fire, uncertainty rises, and money tends to sit on the sidelines.

 

But here’s the flip side: that weakness sets up one of the most reliable buying opportunities in market history — the midterm “sweet spot” that has produced some of the strongest 12-month returns on record. Jeff will show you exactly when to get defensive, when to get back in, and which sector ETFs and individual stocks he is watching as the best seasonal setups heading into late 2026 and beyond. Jeff will also go through his Best Six Months switching strategy in detail.

 

 

Jeff is also joining a panel with some sharp colleagues to make the case for the parts of the market that aren’t getting the headlines right now. They will look at small caps, beaten-down sectors like real estate and consumer staples, and stocks that have been left behind while everyone piled into Big Tech. There are real opportunities in these overlooked corners, and they will be specific about where they are looking for 2026–2027.

 

Full event details and registration are at the link below. Use Jeff’s speaker code 066768 when you sign up.

 

Hope to see you on the beach in April.