April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1, the first trading day of the month. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 6, 2025, through the close on March 18, 2026, DJIA was off 1.0% and S&P 500 was down 1.7%. Performance this year has been hampered by AI-related jitters, private credit risk, geopolitical concerns, war with Iran, and surging energy. Although there is limited time remaining, DJIA and S&P 500 could still bounce back in the green before their “Best Months” end.
![[Seasonal April Market Chart]](/UploadedImage/AIN_0426_20260319_April_2026_Seasonal_chart.jpg)
As you can see in the accompanying chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and midterm-election years since 1950, the month has been nearly perfect over the last 21 years with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In midterm-election years, the market has generally been strong until around mid-April but noticeably weaker in the second half. This is when the “Weak Spot” (page 46 STA 2026) of the 4-year presidential election cycle has historically begun.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market declining 4.9% that year, 5.0% in 2024, and 3.2% in 2025. Despite declining in three of the last four years, April is still the second-best month for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950) and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
The first trading day of April and the second quarter has enjoyed notable strength over the past 31 years, advancing 22 times with an average gain of 0.25% in all 31 years for S&P 500. However, six of the nine declines have occurred in the last thirteen years. The largest decline was in 2020 when S&P 500 declined 4.4% (114.09 points). Other declines were in 2001, 2002 and 2005. DJIA’s record on April’s first trading day is nearly as strong with 21 advances in 31 years. NASDAQ’s recent performance is slightly weaker than DJIA and S&P 500, but the day is still bullish for technology stocks in general with more advances than declines during the same period. April’s second trading day has also been notably strong over the past 21 years.
The last trading day of April has exhibited a bearish bias over the last 21 years. DJIA has declined 15 times with an average loss of 0.35% in all years. S&P 500 has declined 14 times, average loss of 0.46%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been just as weak (based upon frequency of declines) as DJIA on the last trading day, but their respective average losses are 0.72% and 0.93%.
The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.
Typical midterm-election year’s woes have tempered April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s and S&P 500’s seventh best month in midterm-election years, up 12 of the last 19. Russell 2000 ranks highest at fifth best in midterm-year Aprils. Sizable losses exceeding 4% on DJIA and S&P 500 occurred in 1962, 1970, 2002, and 2022. The longer the war with Iran persists, the higher the odds that April 2026 could also succumb to mid-term year weakness.
![[Midterm Year April Performance Table]](/UploadedImage/AIN_0426_20260319_April_2026_Midterm_mini_table.jpg)
Monthly options expiration week frequently impacts the market positively in April and DJIA has the best track record since 1990, with an average gain of 1.05% for the week with just nine declines in 36 years. However, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 have all declined in the last four years during the week of April’s monthly option expiration. The first trading day of expiration week and monthly expiration day have been mixed, but generally bullish with positive average gains being the majority. The week after has a softer long-term record but also still exhibits modest levels of bullishness.
Good Friday (as well as Passover and Easter) lands in April this year. Historically the longer-term track record of Good Friday (page 80 of STA 2026) is bullish with notable average gains by DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 on the trading day before. NASDAQ has advanced 21 of the last 25 days before Good Friday. Monday, the day after Easter, has had exactly the opposite record since 1980 and is in the running for the worst day after any holiday. Since 2004 the day after has improved modestly with S&P 500 up 13 of the last 22 but with an average loss of 0.04%.