ETF Portfolios & Seasonal MACD Updates: Some Stops Triggered & Holding for Bounce By: Christopher Mistal | April 02, 2026 | Email | Print

If you were unable to attend this Wednesday’s member’s only webinar, April 2026 Outlook & Update, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar Jeff provided an update to the Iran war within the context of past geopolitical and oil shocks, reviewed the history of midterm-year conflicts (page 28 of STA 2026), discussed how this year’s Iran war is not analogous to 1966 Vietnam war escalation or Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, covered the Trump presidency seasonal cycle (including its early April low) and recapped the implications of DJIA closing below its December closing low in March.

 

There were also updates for select commodities and bitcoin seasonalities with a focus on the likely formation of a double top in gold and a potentially similar topping pattern in crude oil. In conclusion, the Base Case 2026 Forecast for 8-12% full-year gains remains in play. The Iran war may have pulled typical Q2/Q3 midterm year weakness forward to a degree while the lingering effects of higher crude oil prices could still lead to some typical midterm-year market volatility during the next two quarters, but the market is still likely to finish out the year on a positive note.

 

Risks to the Base Case outlook are numerous, but the market’s resilience suggests that once some resolution to the Iran war becomes clear, the path of least resistance is most likely higher. Economic growth is still holding up, the labor market appears to be on reasonably solid footing and although the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts has changed, the Fed is still effectively neutral with monetary policy.

 

 

As a reminder the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500 is a new sell signal after the first trading day of April and both DJIA and S&P 500 have to agree. The confirmation by both DJIA and S&P 500 is part of the criteria. For example, if DJIA’s Seasonal MACD indicator turns negative, but S&P 500’s does not, then there is no signal on that day. Both must be negative. Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12, a long ema of 26 and a 9-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

 

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive. DJIA would need to drop over 2088 points (–4.49%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while S&P 500 would need to decline over 159 points (–2.42%) to turn its MACD indicator negative. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

 

 

The Iran war, Strait of Hormuz, surging crude oil and slipping stock market were the dominate themes in headlines throughout March. As a result, multiple positions in the Sector Rotation ETF portfolio were stopped out in March. EZU, XLP, XLV, XLI, XLB, CPER, and COPX were all closed out with gains. IYW, XLY, XLF, XLK, and VNQ however were closed out with losses. The weakest positions were technology, consumer discretionary, and financial related. Many of these positions did rebound modestly this week but with no clear end to the Iran war in sight they struggled to maintain that positive momentum today.

 

Per last month’s update, positions in biotech, IBB and XBI were closed out on March 5, using their respective average prices on that day. The average gain for IBB and XBI was a respectable 17.2% excluding any dividends and fees.

 

SPDR Energy (XLE) is the best performing position in the portfolio, up 33.9% as of the close on April 1. On March 30, XLE came within $0.21 of its auto sell price but has since pulled back even as crude oil has moved higher. XLE’s pullback could be due to some profit taking or it could be an early indication that traders and investors think crude oil’s surge higher is nearing its end. Regardless of the precise reason, XLE’s stop loss has been increased to $55.55 and it is on Hold.

 

February’s new trade ideas targeting natural gas, FCG and UNG, have produced mixed results. FCG was added to the portfolio on March 5, and due to it also having exposure to crude oil, was up 5.8%. UNG, however, is down 7.2% as ample domestic supply and limited export capacity have contained its price. It will likely take an early spring cold snap or heat wave (that triggers an increase in electrical demand from air conditioning) to boost its price in the near-term. Longer-term, the current disruptions to international supplies of LNG could spur investment and renewed interest in export of natural gas. FCG and UNG can be considered below their respective buy limits.

 

Last month’s trade idea, SPDR Utilities (XLU) was added to the portfolio on March 5 and is currently fractionally lower. XLU can still be considered at current levels up to its buy limit. 

 

All other positions in the portfolio not previously mentioned are currently on Hold.

 

 

 

As of yesterday’s close, the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio had an average loss of 1.1% excluding dividends and fees. iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is the sole position still in the green, up 1.7%. SPDR DJIA (DIA) was down 0.2% while SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) were down 2.3% and 3.6% respectively. 

 

Prior to the start of the Iran war and its resulting surge in crude oil price as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz essentially came to a halt, positions had been on track for approximately average “Best Months” gains. Despite the nearly doubling of crude oil’s price, the prospects of relatively brief interruption to energy supplies appear to be keeping the market’s retreat from accelerating. Should shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz resume soon, the odds of a relief rally, that push the Best Months positions back into the green, would improve. However, the Weak Spot of the 4-year cycle, Q2 through Q3 of this year still looms. Beyond the usual midterm year politics, the market could be challenged by the lingering aftermath of higher energy prices and other supply chain disruptions that have resulted from the Iran war.

 

In preparation for the upcoming “Worst Months,” five bond ETFs appear in the table below. AGG and BND are multi-duration bond ETFs and generally exhibit less price volatility than TLT. Short-duration Treasury bond ETFs, SHV and SGOV offer relatively stable prices with respectable yields around 3.5%. With money market funds and CD’s also yielding up to around 3%, cash is another reasonable option to consider for the upcoming “Worst months.” When the Seasonal MACD Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggers we will look to move into some combination of these bond ETFs and cash.

 

As a reminder, positions in the Tactical Switching Strategy portfolio are intended to be held until we issue corresponding Seasonal MACD Sell Signals after April 1 for DJIA and S&P 500 and after June 1 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000. For this reason, there are no stop losses associated with these positions. If you are trading the Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle strategy outlined on page 64 of the 2026 Almanac, midterm-year signals should be heeded as well.