Seasonal MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: Midterm Crossroad By: Christopher Mistal | April 09, 2026 | Email | Print

In the April 2026 Outlook Issue and its associated member’s webinar we observed the market was at a seasonal crossroads. April is the final month of the Best Six Months for DJIA and S&P 500 and it is also the beginning of the Weak Spot of the 4-Year Cycle during midterm year Q2-Q3, but late-March to early April has also been where the seasonal low during Trump-presidency years has typically formed.

 

The announcement of a two-week cease fire between the U.S. and Iran earlier this week and the resulting surge higher by the market has potentially put in an early spring market low. Whether or not the S&P 500’s March 30 close at 6343.72 is the final low of the year remains to be seen, but in the near-term the path of least resistance for the market does appear to be higher.

 

 

While geopolitical risks and energy markets remain key variables, the market appears to be absorbing these shocks more efficiently than many expected. If that continues—and especially if uncertainty continues to ease even modestly—the backdrop appears to be in place for the market to continue to push higher in the weeks ahead. Economic growth is still holding up, the labor market still appears to be on reasonably solid footing and although the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts is shifting, the Fed is still effectively neutral with monetary policy.

 

How high in the near-term? Depending on news headlines (and earnings results), S&P 500 could find its way back to around its old all-time closing highs reached in mid-February, which would be around 2-3% higher than its current level. Ride the rally and we will wait until the Seasonal MACD Sell signal to consider taking additional portfolio actions.

 

 

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive. DJIA would need to drop 5544.66 points (–11.51%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while S&P 500 would need to decline 733.05 points (–10.74%) to turn its MACD indicator negative. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue the Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

As a reminder to long-term and a refresher for new members, the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA, and S&P 500 is a new sell signal on or after the first trading day of April and both DJIA and S&P 500 have to agree. The confirmation by both DJIA and S&P 500 is part of the criteria. For example, if DJIA’s Seasonal MACD indicator turns negative on a given day on or after April 1, but S&P 500’s does not, then there is no signal on that day. Both must be negative. 

 

Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12, a long ema of 26 and a 9-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

 

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on April 8, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio advanced 0.7%, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, versus a 0.1% increase by S&P 500 and Russell 2000 over the same time. Based upon average percent, Small-caps performed the best, up 8.9%. Large-caps were second best, climbing 2.2% while Mid-caps retreated 1.0%. 

 

In accordance with last month’s Stock Portfolio email Issue, all seven stocks from the Utilities sector were added to the portfolio on March 13. As of the close on April 8, the seven new Utility stocks were up an average of 1.9%. Four are higher and three are modestly lower. Entergy (ETR) was the best performing position of the seven, up 9.0%. Exelon (EXC) was the weakest, down 1.7%. All seven utility stocks (shaded in gray in the table below) can still be considered at current levels or on dips.

 

Three positions were stopped out of the portfolio during March when the market was in retreat, Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT), Rambus (RMBS), and Amphenol (APH). BOOT is still trading below the price it was stopped out at while RMBS and APH have already rebounded back above their respective stop loss prices. We suspect there will be more market volatility later this midterm election year so we will move on from these three stocks. Getting whipsawed out of positions happens, but it is still disappointing.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) remains on Hold. Despite reasonably good earnings being announced back in March, there was little improvement in share price. Management reported revenue was up and adjusted EBITDA was positive. These are signs that management is potentially steering the company in the right direction, although slowly. 

 

On March 23, StoneX Group (SNEX) completed a 3-for-2 stock split for the purpose of making its shares “more accessible to employees and investors” (additional shares now available at a lower price). As a result of the split, SNEX’s Presented Price and stop loss have been adjusted. SNEX is on Hold. 

 

All other positions in the portfolio are on Hold.