Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, May 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday April 29, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for May 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share assessments of the Iran war, economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events, gold, copper, energy, and relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
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Market at a Glance
4/23/2026: Dow 49310.32 | S&P 7108.40 | NASDAQ 24438.50 | Russell 2K 2775.10 | NYSE 22952.74 | Value Line Arith 13120.69
Seasonal: Neutral. May is the first month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500, but NASDAQ’s “Best Eight” lasts until June. In midterm years, May has been tepid with only Russell 1000 eking out a 0.1% increase. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have all declined on average in past midterm year Mays. Instead of “Selling in May,” this year, a wait and see approach may be warranted as the Iran war appears to have pulled typical midterm year Q2-Q3 weakness into Q1.
Fundamental: Hazy. Despite tentative ceasefires, the Iran war is still ongoing. Economic data has softened and Q1 GDP is estimated at just 1.2% by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model as of April 21. Surging energy prices have pushed headline CPI to 3.3%, although there is still a possibility that energy prices can cool nearly as quickly as they rose. Thus far, the labor market has held up. Weekly initial jobless claims ticked slightly higher but remain at just 214,000 and the unemployment rate did decline to 4.3%. Q1 corporate earnings have held up. The concern remains the longer energy prices remain elevated, the more damage they are likely to cause.
Technical: Break out consolidation. From their respective late-March closing lows, DJIA is up +9.2%, S&P 500 +12.1%, NASDAQ +17.5%, and Russell 2000 +11.2% as of today’s close. S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have all closed at new all-time highs, DJIA has not. All four have reclaimed their respective 50- and 200-day moving averages. As a result of recent gains, technical indicators are at or near overbought levels. Some consolidation is likely as long as headlines allow. Levels to watch for the breakout to hold are S&P 500 around 7000, NASDAQ 23950, and Russell 2000 near 2700. For DJIA, staying above its 50-day moving average, currently near 47,900.
Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. Fed interest rate policy appears be on hold as headline inflation remains stubbornly above target and possibly reaccelerating due to higher energy prices. The big question that remains is whether or not Kevin Warsh will be confirmed by the Senate to take over the top spot at the Fed when Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026. If confirmed, it appears unlikely there will be any major changes at the Fed however, we would welcome less “Fed speak” and forecasting.
Sentiment: Improving. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 48.1%. Correction advisors are at 30.8% and Bearish advisors were 21.1% as of their April 22 release. Bullish advisors have rebounded from just 33.30% in early April. Correction and Bearish advisors have seen a corresponding decrease. With the market hitting new all-time highs earlier this week, further gains in bullish sentiment are likely. As long as the increase does not reach extremes (Bullish advisors around 60%), overall sentiment appears supportive of further market gains.