Seasonal MACD Update & ETF Trades: Still Positive & Eye on the Best By: Christopher Mistal | April 30, 2026 | Email | Print

If you were unable to attend this Wednesday’s member’s only webinar, May 2026 Outlook & Update, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). Jeff kicked off the presentation with a quick overview of the upcoming 60th anniversary edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac for 2027 and the opportunity to lock in a lifetime membership. There are some spots still available or if you’re on the fence there are also 10-year memberships remaining.

 

From there Jeff jumped back into the major trends, patterns, and indicators we have been tracking and updating since the start of the Iran war. As we had anticipated, the market quickly rebounding to new all-time highs, and has effectively negated any comparison between 2026 and 2022 or 1966. In 2022 and in 1966, war was in the headlines, but the market just continued to trend lower. The Trump presidency cycle, although limited in the number of years, is proving to be on the mark this year with the market tracing out a late March low followed by a strong rebound. This has likely pulled some typical midterm year seasonal weakness forward.

 

Inflation metrics have accelerated with the rise in energy costs, confirmed earlier today by the jump in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE (personal consumption and expenditures index) to 3.5% year-over-year while Q1 U.S. GDP was softer than estimated at 2.0%, but still an improvement over the prior quarter. The labor market also appears to be holding up well with seasonally adjusted weekly initial jobless claims falling to the lowest level in decades. 

 

We suspect that as long as crude oil remains essentially range bound and a path to a resolution and/or end to the Iran war appears possible, the market is likely to continue to march higher. We cannot rule out the possibility of some additional volatility and chop during the remainder of Q2 and in Q3 this year, but the market appears to be on track with our Base Case Forecast of 8-12% gains for the full year.

 

 

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 remain positive. DJIA would need to drop 979.07 points (–1.97%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while S&P 500 would need to decline 212.95 points (–2.95%) to turn its MACD indicator negative. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue the Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

 

 

In the following table, the performance of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 during the “Worst Six Months” May to October is compared to fourteen select sector indices or sub-indices, gold, Bitcoin, and the 30-year Treasury bond. Nine of the fourteen indices chosen are S&P Sector indices. Gold and 30-year bond are continuously-linked, non-adjusted front-month futures contracts. Except for two indices (Natural Gas & Biotech) and Bitcoin, 1990-2025, a full 36 years of data was selected. This selection represents a reasonably balanced number of bull and bear years for each and a long enough timeframe to be statistically significant while still representing current trends. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, dividends are not included in this study.

 

 

Using the S&P 500 as the baseline by which all others were compared, five indices and Bitcoin outperformed during the “Worst Six Months” while eleven others, gold and the 30-year Treasury bond underperformed based upon “AVG %” return. Bitcoin’s 50.5% average return during the May-October period is an eye-popping figure but it is based upon just 15 years of data, and its price was under $5 in May 2011 compared to over $75,000 today. If we start with data in 2018, the first full year after Bitcoin futures began trading, its average May to October gain is 13.4% with six positive periods and two negatives. Interestingly, three out of four negative periods were also midterm election years (2014, 2018 & 2022).

 

Next on the list are Biotech and Information Technology with average gains of 7.53% and 6.63% during the “Worst Months.” Before jumping into Biotech positions, consider that only 31 years of data was available and, in those years, Biotech was up just 58.1% of the time from May through October. Some years, like 2014, gains were massive while in down years losses were frequently nearly as large.

 

In third place, Information Technology with 36 years of data and a 72.2% success rate is possibly a less risky choice than Biotech. Its 6.63% average performance comes by way of three fewer losses in five additional years of data. However, five of the ten losses were double digit. The worst loss was 30.88% in 2008. Other double-digit losses were in 1990 and 2000-2002. After declining in 2012, Information Technology has been positive in 12 of the last 13 “Worst Six Months” periods and was up nearly 46% last year. Holding existing tech-related positions with a trailing stop loss is an option to consider.

 

Other “Worst Six” top performers consisted mostly of the usual suspects when defensive sectors are considered. Healthcare and Consumer Staples have bested the S&P 500. Not surprisingly NASDAQ has also performed well, advancing 75.0% of the time with an average gain of 5.82%. NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months include May and June, so it does have an advantage. Although not the best sector by AVG %, Consumer Staples advancing 75.0% of the time is the closest thing to a sure bet for a gain during the “Worst Months.” However, should interest rates rise, Consumer Staples is susceptible to declines. Utilities also merit attention with a 75.0% win rate, matching NASDAQ and Consumer Staples.

 

At the other end of the performance spectrum, we have the sectors to consider shorting or to avoid altogether. The S&P 500 Materials sector was the worst over the past 36 years, shedding an average 1.55% during the “Worst Six.” PHLX Gold/Silver was fourth worst by average percent. However, based solely upon the percentage of time up, the stocks only, PHLX Gold/Silver index is the most consistent loser of the “Worst Six Months” advancing just 41.7% of the time. Aside from solid gains in 2012, 2019, 2020, 2024, and 2025, PHLX Gold/Silver has declined in nine of the last thirteen “Worst Six Months.” NYSE ARCA Natural Gas is the only other sector to record a loss, off 0.43%.

 

Also interesting to note is every sector, gold, 30-year bonds, and Bitcoin are all positive in May, on average. It’s not until June that things have begun to unravel for many sectors of the market and the market itself. July tends to see a broad bounce, but it has been short-lived as August and September tend to be downright ugly on average. It is this window of poor performance that has usually given October a lift in the past 36 years. Only Biotech, 30-year bonds and gold (futures and gold & silver stocks) manage to post gains in both August and September.

 

Based upon “% Up,” Consumer Staples and Utilities are the top sectors of the “Worst Six Months” while Gold/Silver mining stocks are the worst. Historically speaking, May looks like a great time to consider rebalancing a portfolio as you will likely be closing out long positions into strength. Short trade ideas are also worth considering given June’s nearly across-the-board poor performance.

 

 

Based upon a combination of average percentage gained and frequency of gains during the “Worst Six Months,” we are going to look to add SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP), SPDR Healthcare (XLV), iShares US Technology (IYW), iShares Biotechnology (IBB) and SPDR Biotechnology (XBI) to the Sector Rotation EFT portfolio on dips below their respective buy limits. SPDR Utilities (XLU) is an existing position and can still be considered on dips.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Traders and investors with a lower risk threshold, may find XLP and XLV more suitable for “Worst Months” defense as these sectors have historically been considered defensive with lower price volatility. Their dividends are also an additional bonus worth consideration. IYW is likely to track NASDAQ and its “Best Eight Months” that run through June. IBB and XBI have been rather resilient this year when compared to other sectors.

 

 

With the exception of today’s new trade ideas and SPDR Utilities (XLU), all other positions in the Sector Rotation Portfolio are on Hold.

 

SPDR Energy (XLE) is in the top performing position, up 34.0% as of its close on April 29. XLE nearly reached its auto-sell price in late-March when Iran war anxiety peaked. After an initial round of profit taking, XLE is on the rise again. Crude oil price has lingered around $100 per barrel, and the summer driving season is quickly approaching. Historically this combination has been bullish for XLE.

 

United States Natural Gas (UNG) continues to disappoint. The U.S. has more than ample domestic supply available and inventories remain plentiful. UNG did rebound nearly 4.5% today after testing its early January lows. In the near-term, UNG is likely to continue to bounce around until cooling season demand (electrical generation) could give it a boost. Longer-term, the Iran war may finally spur investment in expanding export capacity. 

 

 

 

As of yesterday’s close, the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio had an average gain of 7.7% excluding dividends and fees. iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) the top performing position, up 10.9%. SPDR DJIA (DIA) was up 4.8% while SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) were up 6.2% and 9.1% respectively. All are on Hold. 

 

When the Seasonal MACD Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggers we will consider moving into some combination of bond ETFs and cash.