Seasonal MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: Big Aprils Lift Year By: Christopher Mistal | May 07, 2026 | Email | Print

Even though it has been a week since S&P 500 finished April with an impressive 10.42%, there is still an ongoing discussion about the abrupt reversal and what to expect in the near term. Take the gains and “sell in May” or will this strength continue? First let’s put some context around this year’s April S&P 500 gain. It was the fourth best April for S&P 500 since 1930. The closest comparable April in recent years was in 2020 when S&P 500 jumped 12.7%. Prior to that, the last time S&P 500 climbed double digits in April was way back in 1938 (+14.1%). The best April ever…+42.2% in 1933.

 

For our research today, a “big” April is defined as a gain of at least three times April’s average (mean) monthly performance since 1950. This works out to be a 4.67% gain when April 2026 is included. Since 1950, there have been 15 other years when S&P 500 gained 4.67% or more. When compared to the other 61 years, big April gains were broadly bullish for May, the remainder of the year, and the full year with average performance essentially double “All Other Years.” Performance in May saw the biggest improvement jumping to a 2.12% gain following Big Aprils versus a –0.07% decline in “All Other Years.” Frequency of gains (% Higher) also improved across the board.

 

There was also a modest improvement in the Max Drawdown that occurred during May to December. Following Big Aprils, the subsequent drawdown tended to begin around the same time but ended earlier and resulted in lower Median drawdown. The worst years that had Big Aprils were 2001 (2nd year of tech bubble and 9/11) and 2008 (financial crisis). In both of those years the bulk of the damage was during the “Worst Six Months.” 

 

 

For those of us that enjoy a quick graphic, we have plotted the 15 Big April years in the following S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern chart. We have included the 6th Year of Presidency, Trump Presidency Years, and 2026 as of today’s close for comparison. All three patterns end the year at approximately the same level, around 12-15%, pushing the upper range of our Base case 2026 forecast. Along the way, we still cannot rule out the possibility of some volatility due to the Iran conflict, high crude oil price, tepid seasonal factors, and midterm elections. 

 

 

 

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive. S&P 500 would need to decline 173.01 points (–2.36%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while DJIA needs to gain at least 54.13 points (+0.11%) tomorrow for its MACD indicator to remain positive. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue the Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

We have been reminding everyone that a key criterion to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500 is that both their MACD indicators must agree. Earlier this week was an example of DJIA’s MACD indicator briefly turning negative, but S&P 500 MACD remained positive. As a result, there was no signal issued on Tuesday, May 5. Both MACD indicators must be negative when the market closes.

 

You can track MACD using your preferred charting platform. Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12, a long ema of 26 and a 9-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

 

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on May 6, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio advanced 2.1%, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, versus an 8.6% increase by S&P 500 and a 13.4% jump by Russell 2000 over the same time. Based upon average percent, Small-caps performed the best, up 20.7%. Mid-caps were second best, climbing 5.1% while Large-caps added 1.7%. 

 

Small-cap positions were lifted by respectable gains from HealWell AI (HWAIF) and Ezcorp (EZPW). HWAIF climbed over 16% while EZPW advanced nearly 20%. HWAIF reported quarterly results today and will be hosting an earnings call Friday morning. Results are on track, but the majority of the growth in revenue is still coming from its Orion Health acquisition. We would like to hear more about the company’s AI division and any new contracts that may be in their pipeline. HWAIF is on Hold.

 

EZPW also reported earnings this week on May 6. The early response to the overwhelmingly positive announcement pushed shares of EZPW over $37, but broad small-cap weakness and likely some profit taking quickly reversed the early positive momentum. Shares ultimately finished the day modestly lower. EZPW is on Hold.

 

Phibro Animal Health (PAHC) was crushed today, down over 26%, and closed below its stop loss. Earnings were not bad and management actually raised guidance modestly. Regulatory concerns in their Brazilian market were apparently a key catalyst for the sell off. Rather than risk the remaining gain on the position, we will close it out on Friday, May 8, using its average price. Sell PAHC.

 

OSI Systems (OSIS) has been closed out of the portfolio after being stopped out on May 5. Earnings failed to impress despite modestly exceeding consensus estimates. Digging deeper into their results revealed soft growth from their largest division, Security and somewhat missed results from other segments. Since OSIS had previously doubled and we had sold half the original position then, the overall gain on OSIS was 80.8%.

 

After jumping to nearly $220 in February, Ensign Group (ENSG) has been trending lower. Today it closed below its stop loss. Sell ENSG. For tracking purposes it will be closed out of the portfolio using its average price on Friday, May 8.

 

All seven utility stocks (shaded in gray in the table below) can still be considered at current levels or on dips. Performance has been mixed thus far as higher 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond yields appear to be putting pressure on the broader sector. Should crude oil’s price begin to trend lower, inflation expectations, and Treasury bond yields are likely to follow, easing the rate issue. Energy demand is likely to remain firm as AI data center build-out continues. 

 

All positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent gains.