June Almanac & Vital Stats: Worst Month in Midterm Years By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | May 14, 2026 | Email | Print

 

As of today’s close, S&P 500’s MACD indicator is positive while DJIA’s MACD indicator is not. In order for the Seasonal MACD Sell signal to trigger, both S&P 500 and DJIA MACD indicators must agree and be negative. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue the Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 have both crossed over and issue a sell signal. 

 

Based upon today’s closing prices, S&P 500 would need to decline 179.62 points (–2.39%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while DJIA would need to be up less than 31.53 points (+0.06%) tomorrow for its MACD indicator to stay negative. 

 

You can track MACD using your preferred charting platform. Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12, a long ema of 26 and a 9-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

 

 

 

Over the last 55 years June has favored NASDAQ ranking sixth best with a 1.1% average gain, up 32 of 55 years (since 1971). This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. However, June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.1%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but with a 0.2% average gain. Small caps have tended to fare better in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.9% in the month since 1979, advancing 63.8% of the time. During the bear market in 2022, Russell 1000 and 2000 suffered their worst June losses ever, dropping 8.5% and 8.4% respectively. S&P 500 and NASDAQ also declined by over 8% that year.

 

Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA has recorded a modest average loss in the month. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have been essentially flat, averaging +0.2% each. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared better, logging average gains of 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. 

 

Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market has tended to drift sideways and lower near or into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. From there the market has rallied to create a mid-month bump that generally has quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a modest month-end rally led by technology and small caps. 

 

In midterm years since 1950, June ranks no better than eleventh. June is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 month in midterm years. Average losses range from 1.8% by Russell 1000 to 2.1% from S&P 500 and Russell 2000. All five indexes have declined more times than they have risen in midterm year Junes.

 

 

The second Triple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Triple-Witching Week, DJIA has been down 15 of the last 29 years but has improved recently with gains in 6 of the last 8. Triple-Witching Friday (or the last trading day of the week) has been the opposite of Monday, DJIA has been up 19 of the last 36 years, but down 8 of the last 11. Full-week performance is choppy, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 29 of the last 36 years with an average weekly decline of 0.7% since 1990. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 had fared better during the week after, but that trend appears to be fading.

 

June’s first trading day is the DJIA’s second best day of the month, up 29 of the last 38 years while June’s second trading day has been the best, up 25 times in the last 38 years. Gains are sparse throughout the remainder of the month until the last three days when NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks begin to exhibit strength. The last day of the second quarter was a bit of a paradox as the Dow was down 17 of 24 from 1991 through 2014 while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 had nearly the opposite record. Since 2015, all indexes have had a bullish bias on the last trading day while DJIA and S&P 500 have been up 9 of the last 11.