ETF Portfolios & NASDAQ MACD Update: Rotating in May By: Christopher Mistal | May 28, 2026 | Email | Print

Please join Jeff at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas at Caesars Palace from July 19-22, 2026, as he kicks off the 60th Anniversary Edition tour for the 2027 Stock Trader’s Almanac. The Las Vegas Symposium will be four days of keynotes, workshops, live trading, and MoneyMasters Courses — all digging into transformative technologies, hard assets, income strategies, and alternatives. Not surface-level stuff. Real ideas, specific names, and up-to-date thinking on where the opportunity is in the second half of 2026 and beyond.

 

Please register here or copy and paste this link into a browser window:

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More information and Jeff’s schedule can be found at the bottom of this email.

 

 

As of today’s close, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is negative. It turned negative on May 18. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. If NASDAQ’s MACD indicator is still negative when the market closes on May 29, it will need to turn positive again in June before it can trigger a sell signal. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning the Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to some or possibly all of the existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

The market’s rally off the late-March lows has been impressive. S&P 500 has been up 8 weeks in a row and is currently on track for a ninth straight weekly gain. Since 1930, S&P 500 has been up 8 weeks or more in a row, just 24 times. Of the previous 23 streaks, 56.5% (13 of 23) of them lasted to 9 or more. The average gain after 8 straight weeks, excluding the current streak, was a solid 10.19%. The current streak is well above average at 17.34% as of May 22, 2026, close.

 

 

Looking at S&P 500 performance after previous 8-week winning streaks, its performance was somewhat mixed 1- and 2-Weeks later with average performance of +0.11% and –0.13% respectively. This is not surprising as ten of the weekly winning streaks did not last past 8 weeks and only four streaks lasted longer than 9 weeks straight. However, by 4-Weeks later performance begun improving and continued to improve at the 3- and 6-Months later periods.

 

Rather bullishly, the only double-digit loss to appear in the entire table was back in 1957 when S&P 500 was down –13.76% 6-Months after as the U.S. economy slipped into a recession in August 1957 that lasted through April 1958. Also notable is this year is just the third midterm year to appear in the table. In 1958, S&P 500 finished the year up +38.1% and in 1998 it was up +26.7%. Due to the Iran War, high energy prices, and stubborn inflation, a more likely outcome for midterm year 2026 is still our base case scenario of 8-12% full-year gains for S&P 500 with some typical midterm year volatility during the “Worst Months.”

 

 

There are two new Sector Seasonalities that begin in June, a bearish period for natural gas stocks that is based upon the NYSE ARCA Natural Gas index (XNG) and a similarly bearish seasonality in oil stocks based upon NYSE ARCA Oil index (XOI). We are going to pass on both trade setups. Natural gas prices have been kept in check by domestic inventories that are within the 5-year average for this time of the year. While natural gas prices could drift lower, the risk of a spike higher during hurricane season due to supply disruptions outweighs any potential reward of a short position. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical instability makes shorting energy broadly unattractive.

 

 

Three bullish and one bearish Sector Seasonalities come to an end in June. Starting at the top of the table on the bottom of page 94 in the 2026 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the bullish trade based upon XNG comes first. Our correlating ETF positions, presented on February 5, First Trust Natural Gas (FCG), and United States Natural Gas (UNG) are on Hold. UNG and FCG have been disappointing, but both did gain today (UNG up over 6%). Rather than exiting at a loss, a tight 2% trailing stop loss, beginning with today’s closing prices (May 28) is suggested for UNG and FCG. Should they manage to build on today’s momentum, the trailing stop could provide an even better exit price.

 

The next seasonality to end is a bearish period for gold and silver stocks based upon the Gold and Silver index (XAU). There is no corresponding position in the portfolio as the Iran war and persistent inflation make shorting gold challenging.

 

Lastly, bullish seasonalities associated with Consumer Discretionary and Staples come to an end in June. The position in SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was stopped out in March. SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) can be considered on dips below $83.00. XLP has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 during the “Worst Months,” May through October.

 

Positions in other sectors that have historically performed well during the “Worst Months,” XLU, XLV, IBB and XBI can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits.

 

iShares US Technology (IYW) has ran away and its associated trade is cancelled.

 

In accordance with the Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA on S&P 500, iShares DJ Transports (IYT) was closed out of the portfolio on May 19 using its average price that day. Excluding dividends and any trading fees, IYT gained 9.7%.

 

SPDR Energy (XLE) has been updated to reflect its closing below its stop loss of $55.55 on April 17. Although not the desired outcome, XLE was still closed out for a solid 26.1% gain excluding any dividends or fees. If still holding XLE, a trailing stop loss is suggested as oil’s favorable season is winding down.

 

 

 

SPDR DJIA (DIA) and SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) have been closed out of the portfolio using their respective average prices from May 19 for an average gain of 7.8% excluding dividends or fees. Both have moved modestly higher and are providing ample opportunity to sell into strength.

 

Continue to Hold QQQ and IWM. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal has NOT triggered and cannot trigger until June 1 this year.

 

Defensive positions in bond ETFs, TLT, AGG, BND, SHV and SGOV, are essentially flat with fractional gains. TLT, AGG and BND are on Hold. The performance of TLT, AGG and BND will likely depend greatly upon the Fed and the trajectory of inflation — both remain quite unclear at this time. Our preferred bond ETFs are SHV and SGOV as both exhibit relatively stable pricing and have yields around 3.5%. We will consider adding to existing SHV and SGOV positions when NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal triggers, but they can be considered on dips up to their respective buy limits.

 

 

 

 

 

Let's be honest — the last few years were almost too easy if you were holding the right AI and Big Tech names. But that trade has gotten a lot more complicated.

 

We're hearing more questions about the AI boom – and we’re seeing real rotation now. Money is starting to move out of last year's darlings and into places that felt “boring” 18 months ago — industrials, energy, value, income. The major indices are still near all-time highs, and Wall Street's long-term outlook for stocks hasn't fallen apart. But what's working underneath the surface looks very different now. 

 

On top of that, the Fed may not be done being restrictive, inflation hasn't gone away quietly, and geopolitical flare-ups keep popping up – putting oil, commodities, and real assets squarely into any market conversation. 

 

Bottom line: This is a market where active allocation and real risk management actually matter again. That's a big part of why Jeff is looking forward to speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas, scheduled for July 19–22 at Caesars Palace.

 

Please register here or copy and paste this link into a browser window:

(https://lasvegasmms.moneyshow.com/?scode=067466)

 

 

Sunday, July 19, 2026, at 1:55 pm - 2:20 pm PDT (Pre-Show Presentation)

 

Sunday, July 19, 2026, at 2:45 pm - 3:30 pm PDT (Pre-Show Panel)

 

Monday, July 20, 2026, at 4:40 pm - 5:25 pm PDT (Workshop)

 

Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 9:40 am - 10:10 am PDT (Keynote Panel)

 

Meet Jeff in Las Vegas and join the 2027 Stock Trader’s Almanac 60th Anniversary Edition tour kickoff.