NASDAQ MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: Resilient Market Stretched By: Christopher Mistal | June 04, 2026 | Email | Print

If you were unable to attend this Tuesday’s member’s only webinar, June 2026 Outlook & Update, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). Jeff kicked off the session with an open invite to join him in Las Vegas at MoneyShow’s Master Symposium on July 19-22 where he will be kicking off the 60th Anniversary Tour and a reminder that there are still some lifetime memberships and 10-year spots remaining. If you are interested and/or would like some additional information, give us a call or send us an email.

 

Jeff then quickly pivoted back to provide updates on many of the seasonal patterns and trends we have been tracking, and remain in play, this year. Despite the surge in energy prices and a corresponding reacceleration of inflation, the market has proven resilient and has climbed to well above average performance with S&P 500 up over 10% already in 2026. With S&P 500 already in the middle of our Base-Case scenario full-year gains of 8-12%, Jeff explained that inflation is the primary reason holding back a shift to the Best-Case scenario with full-year, 2026 gains possibly exceeding 20%.

 

As long as the Iran War drags on and crude oil price remains elevated, inflation pressure is likely to continue to build. This will in turn pressure the Fed to become less accommodative with monetary policy and potentially even reverse course and begin raising interest rates again. A tightening of monetary policy could trigger a market pullback, not to mention the additional pressure of ongoing geopolitical and midterm election uncertainty.

 

The Iran War likely did pull typical midterm year seasonal weakness forward this year, but with conflict still ongoing and oil still well above pre-war prices, the possibility of additional market volatility and weakness sometime during the remainder of Q2 and/or Q3 this year cannot be ruled out completely. Any such pullback ahead of or around midterm elections would likely be an excellent setup to the Sweet Spot of the four-year cycle, Q4 of this year through Q2 of 2027.

 

 

NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator entered June in negative territory. It remains negative as of today’s close. Because our sell signal requires a new negative crossover (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June, the indicator must first turn positive before it can trigger. Currently NASDAQ would need to gain at least 1087.19 points (4.05%) in a single day to turn its MACD positive. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal criteria are satisfied, we will send an email to all members. At that time, we will finish repositioning the Portfolios for the “Worst Months” and anticipate adding to some or possibly all of the existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on June 3, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 1.2% lower, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, versus a 2.6% increase by S&P 500 and a 0.2% increase by Russell 2000 over the same time. Small-cap positions were the biggest drag, down 12.7% as HealWell AI (HWAIF) retreated and Phibro Animal Health (PAHC) was crushed and closed below its stop loss. Per last update, PAHC was closed out of the portfolio using its average price on May 8 for a modest 6.4% gain. As disappointing as it was getting stopped at $40.97, PAHC continued to plunge until it was under $30 and has only just begun to show signs of stabilizing this week.

 

HWAIF has continued to plod along. There has been some modest improvement since February, but it has yet to be recognized by the AI or healthcare crowds. Continue to Hold.

 

After briefly trading above $34.90 on May 7, EZCORP (EZPW) provided a second opportunity to take profits on May 11 when it traded above its “double” price again. Per standard trading guidelines, half the original position in EZPW was sold on May 11. EZPW has since modestly pulled back and is on Hold. 

 

Ensign Group (ENSG) was closed out of the portfolio on May 8 using its average price that day after it closed below its stop loss price of $175.89 on the prior day. ENSG did bounce back briefly around mid-May, but that proved short-lived as ENSG closed below $165 today. Despite comments to the contrary, regulatory and reimbursement concerns appear to still be pressuring ENSG.

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) appears to have broken out of its multi-month slumber briefly trading above $50 per share earlier this week. SMCI is on Hold. Were it not for its relatively recent history of regulatory issues, it would be easier to take a more bullish view as SMCI has beat earnings estimates for two straight quarters now and relative to many other AI-related stocks its valuation seems quite reasonable even after more than doubling since its March lows. 

 

All seven utility stocks (shaded in gray in the table below) can still be considered at current levels or on dips. Accelerating inflation and a corresponding increase in 10- and 30-year Treasury bond yields are still a drag on overall performance. In the near-term, utility stocks are likely to trade with above sector average volatility, primarily driven by crude oil’s price volatility. However, we would not be surprised to see the current administration make a significant push to lower energy prices and interest rates as the midterm elections quickly approach.

 

Longer-term, AI-fueled energy demand is likely to continue to grow. The merger of NextEra Energy (NEE) and Dominion Energy (D) announced on May 18 appears to be driven by that demand. This merger is currently expected to be completed in 12 to 18 months. D shareholders will receive 0.8138 shares of NEE for each share held at the close of the transaction. Once completed the newly formed company will be the world’s largest regulated electric utility. This merger could be just the beginning of consolidation in the sector. 

 

All other positions not previously mentioned in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent gains.