July Almanac & Vital Stats: Best Month of Q3 Mixed in Midterm Years By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | June 18, 2026 | Email | Print

 

As of today’s close, (June 18), NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator is still negative. It has been negative since May 18. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. Because NASDAQ’s MACD indicator was negative at the start of June, it still needs to turn positive first. It would take a single-day advance of 735.99 NASDAQ points (+2.78%) to turn MACD positive. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD registers a new negative crossover we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to existing bond ETF and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

Tech’s influence in the market continues to grow and the market’s focus in early summer often shifts to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-trading-day run has been up 32 of the past 41 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. Look for this rally to begin around June 26 and run until about July 14.

 

 

After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last sixteen years, up fourteen times with two losses. After struggling during the bear market in 2022, NASDAQ resoundingly snapped back the last three years recording gains of + 4.1% in 2023, +3.8% in 2024, and 3.3% in 2025 during its 12-day midyear rally.

 

 

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter, however historically tepid August and September tend to make the comparison easy. “Hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% combined with strong performances in 2013, 2018, and 2022, have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 have been up 11 straight Julys (2015-2025). NASDAQ declined 0.8% in July 2024, ending its streak of July gains at nine in a row. Russell 2000 has been up nine times in the same period (down in 2015 and 2021). Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 76, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2026).

 

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat second half. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a bearish bias over the last 21 years. In midterm years since 1950, July has been weaker with NASDAQ and Russell 2000 finishing the month with average losses of –0.8% and –2.5% respectively.

 

 

Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 85.7% of the time with an average advance of +0.44%. S&P 500 has advanced 90.5% of the time (average gain +0.48%). NASDAQ has been similarly bullish advancing 85.7% of the time (+0.54% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength, which supports the case for declaring the first trading day of July the most consistently bullish day of the year over the past 21 years.

 

Trading on the day before and after the Independence Day holiday is often lackluster. Volume tends to decline on either side of the holiday as vacations begin early and/or finish late. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have recorded net losses on the day after (page 80, STA 2026).

 

 

Midterm-year July rankings are something of a mixed bag, ranking #3 for DJIA and S&P 500, averaging gains of +1.6% and +1.3% respectively (since 1950); while NASDAQ slips to #7 (since 1974). For Russell 2000 (since 1982) July has been its worst month in midterm years. NASDAQ has only advanced in five of the last thirteen midterm Julys. Russell 2000 has advanced four times in its last eleven.