Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, July 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday July 1, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for July 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share assessments of the Iran war, economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events, gold, copper, energy, and relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
6/25/2026: Dow 51920.62 | S&P 7357.49 | NASDAQ 25358.60 | Russell 2K 3007.86 | NYSE 23610.72 | Value Line Arith 13710.39
Seasonal: Bullish. July is the first month of the new quarter and second half of the year. Over the last 21 years, July is the #1 S&P 500 and NASDAQ month with average gains of 2.5% and 3.1% respectively and DJIA’s second best month. NASDAQ’s Midyear rally, or Christmas in July, begins on June 26 and runs until July 14. But, in midterm years since 1950, July’s performance has been mixed. In midterm years, DJIA and S&P 500 have performed reasonably well while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have struggled.
Fundamental: Foggy. Just released Q1 GDP was revised higher to 2.1%, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has Q2 growth at just 2.5%, down from its estimate of over 4% in mid-May. Corporate earnings growth forecasts remain robust for 2026 but are currently estimated to slow in 2027. Inflation metrics have jumped higher, putting Fed rate hikes back in play but with crude oil prices in retreat, inflation could begin easing anytime. The labor market still appears to be on solid footing despite the rising number of tech-sector, AI-related, layoffs.
Technical: Divergent. After closing at new all-time highs in early June, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have gone in different directions. DJIA is positive in June and near all-time highs while S&P 500 and NASDAQ are struggling and, in the red. DJIA is sitting comfortably above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. S&P 500 is currently trading within a few points of its 50-day moving average while NASDAQ has slipped below its. Should tech continue to struggle, DJIA could be hard pressed to enjoy a sustained rally.
Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. New Fed chairman Warsh wasted little time implementing change at the Fed. Following the Fed’s June meeting it was made immediately clear that Fed “speak” would be curtailed with a substantially shortened FOMC statement. That statement was crystal clear that inflation is still above target and that the “new” Fed will deliver price stability. Warsh did maintain some continuity at the Fed by holding a post-meeting press conference and releasing quarterly projections although he did decline to include his own. It will be interesting to see if this new direction actually results in improved outcomes.
Sentiment: Bullish. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 55.8%. Correction advisors are at 26.9% and Bearish advisors were 17.3% as of their June 24 release. Bullish advisors have reached their highest level since late February and are now at a level where some additional caution is warranted. This does not mean abandoning stocks completely, it means consider limiting new long positions to your best ideas and strongest setups while holding existing positions with a close eye on stop losses.