NASDAQ MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: Midyear Rally Resumes By: Christopher Mistal | July 09, 2026 | Email | Print

NASDAQ’s annual “Christmas in July” Midyear Rally, defined as the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July, is nearing its conclusion, and 2026 has largely followed the script. After a powerful advance into late June, the rally did pause as traders locked in gains, digested fresh economic data and reacted to the latest headlines. As of today’s close, July 9, NASDAQ has advanced 3.35% with three trading days to go.

 

 

 

While the final outcome remains to be seen, the recent consolidation is not unusual and fits the historical tendency for the rally to experience brief interruptions before a final push. Since 1985, this 12-trading-day seasonal window has produced an average gain of 2.5% and finished higher in roughly four out of every five years, making it one of NASDAQ's most consistent seasonal patterns. Whether the rally can finish with another burst higher or begins to fade into the typical second-half summer lull will likely set the tone for the balance of July.

 

 

NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator entered June in negative territory and remained there until today. As of today’s close, it is positive. Currently NASDAQ would need to decline at least 342.20 points (–1.31%) in a single day to turn its MACD (12-26-9) negative. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal criteria are satisfied, we will send an email to all members. As a reminder, we use daily closing prices to calculate MACD. Any intraday signal does not apply. At that time, we will finish repositioning the Portfolios for the “Worst Months” and anticipate adding to some or possibly all of the existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

Over the past five weeks, through the close on July 8, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio crept 0.1% higher, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, compared to a 0.9% decline by S&P 500 and a 2.2% increase by Russell 2000 over the same time. Small-cap positions were the biggest drag on the portfolio, down 7.1% as HealWell AI (HWAIF) slipped back below $0.60 per share. Large caps were best, advancing 4.8%, boosted by broad, modest gains from its numerous defensive-sector holdings.

 

HWAIF is still on Hold. Aside from its annual meeting, which was primarily administrative, the other recent news of note was the announcement that it completed a pilot of its DARWEN-powered SMART Summary and SMART Search AI tools with positive results and an indirect SpaceX stake that was estimated to be valued at around CAD$25 million. A stronger balance sheet and progress with its AI tools are encouraging steps in the right direction but more is still needed.

 

StoneX Group (SNEX) will complete a three-for-two split after the market’s close on July 17, 2026, and is expected to begin trading split-adjusted when the market opens on July 20. Each shareholder will receive one share for every two that they held on July 7 with fractional shares being paid in cash. After the split, SNEX stop loss should be adjusted by dividing it by 1.5. Its stop loss of $98.64 now, it will be $65.76 on July 20. SNEX is on Hold. 

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) was hit hard in June. Shares had rallied to over $50 early in the month but quickly reversed after SMCI sold $7 billion in equity and export-control issues surfaced. Quarterly earnings have been strong, but investor confidence is not given the company’s spotty history. The position in the portfolio is all that remains after taking profits twice, once when it first doubled and then a second time when it was trading over $90 per share. SMCI is on Hold.

 

The utility sector stocks that were presented on March 12, 2026, have improved since last update. All seven were up on average 1.3% as of July 8 excluding any dividends and trading costs. Dominion Energy (D) is the top performer, up 11.7% followed by Entergy (ETR) with an 8.8% gain.

 

These large-cap utility trades were presented for two main reasons; the sector has a track record of performing during the “Worst Months” and because of rising energy demand from data centers. Both of these reasons remain valid. AEP, D, and ETR can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. DUK, EXC, NEE, and SO can be considered at current levels up to their respective buy limits.

 

All positions from the June 11, 2026, Dividend Stock Basket appear in the Stock Portfolio below. Eight of the ten positions did trade below their buy limits. Energizer Holdings (ENR) and Newell Brands (NWL) have not yet traded below their buy limits.

 

The dividend basket has gotten off to a relatively solid start with six of eight positive as of July 8 and an average gain of 2.2% across all eight positions held. PepsiCo (PEP) did have a tough day today, down over 3%, after reporting quarterly earnings. Today’s retreat on what looks like a 1 cent miss on earnings is likely overdone given the 6.4% increase in net revenue. PEP can be considered at current levels.

 

ENR, PRGO, NWL, CPB, SJM, MKC, HRL, KHC, KVUE and MO can all be considered at current levels or on dips below their respective buy limits.

 

All other positions not previously mentioned in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent moves.