August Almanac & Vital Stats: No Reprieve in Midterm Years By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | July 16, 2026 | Email | Print

[Editor’s note: You are receiving the August Almanac email Issue early in order to move the August Outlook Issue to next Thursday and then have the members’ only webinar on Wednesday, July 29. A registration link for the webinar will be included in next week’s issue, after the market’s close on July 23.]

 

Please join Jeff at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas at Caesars Palace from July 19-22, 2026, as he kicks off the 60th Anniversary Edition tour for the 2027 Stock Trader’s Almanac. The Las Vegas Symposium will be four days of keynotes, workshops, live trading, and MoneyMasters Courses — all digging into transformative technologies, hard assets, income strategies, and alternatives. Not surface-level stuff. Real ideas, specific names, and up-to-date thinking on where the opportunity is in the second half of 2026 and beyond.

 

Plus, you’ll have a blast in Las Vegas doing it – with MoneyShow’s signature social and networking events waiting at every turn! If you want to be in the room when the conversation (and fun!) happens, I hope to see you there.

 

Please register here or copy and paste this link into a browser window:

(https://lasvegasmms.moneyshow.com/?scode=067466)

 

More information and Jeff’s UPDATED schedule can be found at the bottom of this email.

 

 

Even after today’s decline, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD remains positive. NASDAQ needs to advance 57.49 points (+0.22%) tomorrow, Friday, July 17, to keep its MACD (12-26-9) positive. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal criteria are met, we will send an email to all members. At that time, we will finish repositioning the Portfolios for the “Worst Months” and anticipate adding to some or possibly all of the existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio. As a reminder, we use daily closing prices to calculate MACD. Any intraday signal does not apply.

 

The Iran/Hormuz conflict has evolved from a market shock into an active geopolitical risk backdrop. Renewed hostilities have lifted oil prices, stoked inflation concerns, and pressured stocks. The market appears increasingly desensitized to and willing to at least partially discount these flare-ups. 

 

Energy remains the wild card, as any disruption that sends crude sharply higher could amplify the historically weak August-September period and the Midterm Year Q3 Weak Spot (page 46 STA 2026). But absent a significant energy-driven inflation shock, the current strategic stalemate supports our expectation for a typical late-summer pullback/correction that could set the stage for the Best Six Months and the favorable Sweet Spot of the four-year cycle that has historically begun in October.

 

 

Agriculture and farming made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best DJIA month from 1901 to 1951. (See page 42 of the 2026 Almanac comparing the seasonal patterns of DJIA before and after 1950.) Now it is the second worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 38 years, 1988-2025 with average performance ranging from +0.1% by NASDAQ to a –0.7% loss by DJIA. In 2022, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 all declined over 4% in August and in 2023 they declined 1.8% or more. 

 

Contributing to this poor performance since 1988 was the second shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998, with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Additional recent DJIA August losses in excess of 4% were in 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2015.

 

 

In midterm years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve ever so slightly: #10 DJIA and NASDAQ (since 1974), #9 S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (since 1982), and #8 Russell 1000 (since 1982). Average losses range from –0.2% for Russell 1000 to –1.4% by NASDAQ and Russell 2000. All five indexes have winning track records, more gains than losses, but losses have frequently been substantially larger than gains. DJIA and NASDAQ suffered double-digit losses in 1974, 1990 and 1998. Midterm Augusts have tended to either post a modest gain or be brutally lower.

 

Historically, the first eight or nine trading days of the month have exhibited weakness while mid- and late month have been somewhat better. In midterm years, August has tended to open weaker with losses accumulating until around the ninth trading day before reversing and surging until shortly after mid-month. At which point, a bounce of varying magnitude and duration occurred before the major indexes slipped again to sink through the end of the month.

 

 

On Monday of monthly options expiration NASDAQ has been up 26 of the last 33 years with ten days up more than 1%. Monthly expiration Friday has improved recently, up 15 of the last 23 years and up 7 of the last 8. In monthly expiration week, DJIA is down 21 times in 36 years since 1990, with some sizable losses; –2.6% in 1990, –2.3% in 1992, –4.2% in 1997, –4.0% in 2011, –2.2% in 2013, –5.8% in 2015, and –2.2% in 2023. The week after expiration has been stronger, DJIA up 22 of the last 35.

 

 

 

 

Let's be honest — the last few years were almost too easy if you were holding the right AI and Big Tech names. But that trade has gotten a lot more complicated.

 

We're hearing more questions about the AI boom – and we’re seeing real rotation now. Money is starting to move out of last year's darlings and into places that felt “boring” 18 months ago — industrials, energy, value, income. The major indices are still near all-time highs, and Wall Street's long-term outlook for stocks hasn't fallen apart. But what's working underneath the surface looks very different now. 

 

On top of that, the Fed may not be done being restrictive, inflation hasn't gone away quietly, and geopolitical flare-ups keep popping up – putting oil, commodities, and real assets squarely into any market conversation. 

 

Bottom line: This is a market where active allocation and real risk management actually matter again. That's a big part of why Jeff is looking forward to speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas, scheduled for July 19–22 at Caesars Palace.

 

Please register here or copy and paste this link into a browser window:

(https://lasvegasmms.moneyshow.com/?scode=067466)

 

 

Sunday, July 19, 2026, at 2:30 pm - 2:55 pm PDT (Pre-Show Keynote)

 

 

Monday, July 20, 2026, at 4:55 pm - 5:40 pm PDT (Workshop)

 

Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 9:25 am - 9:55 am PDT (Keynote Panel)

 

Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 3:45 pm – 4:30 pm PDT (Workshop)

 

Meet Jeff in Las Vegas and join the 2027 Stock Trader’s Almanac 60th Anniversary Edition tour kickoff.