Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, August 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday July 29, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for August 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share assessments of the Iran war, economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events, gold, copper, energy, and relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
7/23/2026: Dow 51711.65 | S&P 7408.30 | NASDAQ 25137.69 | Russell 2K 2940.16 | NYSE 23874.27 | Value Line Arith 13771.17
Seasonal: Bearish. August is the second worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 38 years, 1988-2025 with average performance ranging from +0.1% by NASDAQ to a –0.7% loss by DJIA. In historically challenging midterm years, August’s average performance is even worse with losses ranging from –1.4% by NASDAQ and Russell 2000 to –0.2% by Russell 1000. In 2022, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 declined 4% or more.
Fundamental: Mixed. Latest inflation metrics, CPI and PPI, were better than anticipated with inflation cooling, but tensions are flaring again in the Middle East, and crude oil is rising once again threatening to reignite inflation. Economic growth also appears to be cooling despite massive AI spending. As of its July 17 update, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has Q2 growth at just 1.7%, a significant reduction from past estimates that were above 3%. Corporate earnings remain robust, but big AI spending is transferring earnings from one group of stocks to another. On the surface, the labor market appears to be holding up well with unemployment at 4.2% but the number of people not in the labor force has topped 105 million.
Technical: Rolling over? DJIA had ignored tech weakness and logged new all-time highs in June and early July but has pulled back since closing above 53,000 on July 6. After today’s decline, DJIA no longer has a sizeable cushion to its 50-day moving average and S&P 500 has fallen below its 50-day moving average. NASDAQ has the weakest chart, having fallen below its 50-day moving average and remaining below since July 16. Levels to watch are DJIA around 51,400, S&P 500 near 7,250 and NASDAQ 24,250
Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. Next week on July 28 & 29, Fed chairman Warsh will preside over his second FOMC meeting. As of 4:45 pm EDT on July 23, the
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is showing the odds favor no change in interest rates at this meeting and we are inclined to agree. CPI and PPI did retreat when energy prices fell throughout May and June. But with crude oil prices surging again, market-based interest rates could force the Fed to act.
Sentiment: Nervous. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 51.8%. Correction advisors are at 31.5% and Bearish advisors were 16.7% as of their July 22 release. Market headwinds are building, seasonal factors are weakening, and investors are on edge. Advisor sentiment confirms the concern with an increasing number of advisors anticipating a correction. However, the number of bearish advisors remains subdued which suggests that any market pullback or retreat is not likely to turn into a full-blown bear market.