May 2019 Trading & Investment Strategy By: | April 25, 2019 | Email | Print

As of the today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicators (at bottom of following charts) applied to DJIA and S&P 500 remain positive by the slimmest of margins. DJIA needs to advance 0.45% on Friday or S&P 500 needs to climb 0.24% on Friday to stave off our Seasonal MACD Sell signal. 

 

Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a sell signal.

 

 

4/25/2019: Dow 26,462.08 | S&P 2,926.17 | NASDAQ 8,118.68 | Russell 2K 1,575.61 | NYSE 12,912.96 | Value Line Arith 6,321.44

 

Psychological: Skeptical. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey bulls are at 53.4%. Correction advisors are at 28.2% and Bearish advisors are 18.4%. Bullish advisors have exceeded 50% for ten weeks straight now. However, there has been an increase in the number of advisors expecting a correction. This suggests there is just enough caution in place for the market to slowly make its way higher. Whether or not major indexes can make and hold new highs is the key point in the bull/bear debate now.

 

Fundamental: Reasonably firm. Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is trending higher and currently stands at 2.7% with a new update due on April 29. Even though the current reading is down 0.1%, it is still a significant improvement over the 1.5% that was forecast about a month ago. Unemployment is still 3.8% after the economy added 196,000 jobs in March. Initial weekly jobless claims did spike higher than expected but may have been influenced by Good Friday and Easter. Earnings have been mixed. Mega-cap technology remains strong while industrials appear stuck in the mud. The overall outlook is still positive with modest growth, low inflation and relatively low interest rates.

 

Technical: Breaking Out? S&P 500 and NASDAQ have logged new all-time highs. DJIA was within 172 points. Russell 2000 is lagging badly. Only time will time if this was just a double top or the beginning of the next leg of a rally. As long as the outlook for the second half of 2019 and beyond continues to improve, then a period of consolidation is likely followed by further gains into yearend and possibly beyond. 

 

Monetary: 2.25-2.50%. Partial yield curve inversion and cooling growth estimates have put the Fed on hold. Rates are not likely to move until economic data justifies it. Higher rates are a possibility, just not that high of a probability with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently forecasting a 61.7% chance of a rate cut at the January 2020 Fed meeting. The Fed’s next meeting at the end of April is likely to be another quiet one.

 

Seasonal: Neutral. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” But NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June. In pre-election years, May can be challenging ranking #10 for DJIA and S&P 500 with fractional average gains. NASDAQ has been stronger, ranking #7 with an average advance of 1.9%.

 

After a rough start to the “Best Six Months” with the market falling precipitously in November-December the recovery rally has put DJIA up 5.6%, S&P 500 up 8.1% and NASDAQ up 11.3% for the Best Six Months November-April from the October 31, 2018 close to the April 24, 2019 close. This is precisely why we hold our Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Portfolio positions without stops – so we avoid getting whipsawed. If our overall analysis were to become dire we would act accordingly, but that is highly unlikely. 

 

We maintained our resolve, recognized the selling had capitulated, did not panic at the December 24 low and road the recovery rally. The history of the Best Six/Worst Six Months is undeniable and it still works, though there have been off periods throughout its history. But now as the Best Six Months comes to a close at the end of April next week and the dreaded “Sell in May and go away” mantra will be chanted on The Street, we are on the cusp of our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 (NASDAQ’s Best 8 Months runs through June).

 

When we do get our MACD Sell Signal you, our faithful subscribers and lifetime members, will be the first to know. And as you well know we will not recklessly “sell in May and go away.” We will sell our Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF positions in SDPR DJIA (DIA) and SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and in turn take positions in bond ETFs. In fact, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index ETF (BND) has already traded below our buy limit on several occasions since we presented it in our Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF Portfolio. We will tighten stop losses and limit adding new long exposure to positions from sectors that have a demonstrated record of outperforming during the period. We may also take some profits, trim or outright sell underperforming stock and ETF positions. 

 

Our overall outlook for the year remains bullish as it has been since our Annual Forecast in December that was followed by a bullish January Indicator Trifecta. The historical strength of Pre-Election Years, which has been self-evident thus far this year, is supported by resilient economic and corporate readings, a dovish Fed clearly done with raising interest rates for the time being and a White House that is supportive of Wall Street. But, as you can see in the chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns below, the Dow (black dotted line) and S&P (green dotted line) are already quite close to historical average gains for the Pre-Election year and NASDAQ is way ahead of the pace up more than 20% for 2019 to date. 

 

Ostensibly, the S&P and NASDAQ are on the brink of clearing the last levels of resistance. But the Dow is struggling and Russell 2000 is well off the pace. S&P and NASDAQ made new all-time highs this week but are straining to hold those levels and there is chatter in technical analysis circles about a bearish double top forming on the S&P and NASDAQ. Also evident in the chart here is the weakness often experienced in the latter part of May. So while we remain bullish on the year, we do expect the market to be weaker during the mid-May soft patch and backing and filing during the Worst 4 Months July-October.

 

 

 

Following the three-day holiday for Good Friday, Passover and Easter, DJIA came within 172 points of its all-time closing high on Tuesday April 23 (1). S&P 500 and NASDAQ did close at new all-time highs on that date. Based upon the S&P 500, the current bull market is officially in its eleventh year. New all-time highs by DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ would strengthen the bullish argument, but further gains could be limited as the Russell 2000 small-cap index continues to struggle.

 

DJIA’s recent surge to nearly new highs produced enough momentum to stave off our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for a few more days, but only by the smallest of margins that is barely visible in the chart (2). DJIA’s faster moving MACD indicator was also positive as of the close on April 24, again by only the slimmest of margins.

 

 

DJIA (3) and S&P 500 (4) have advanced thirteen times over the past seventeen weeks. NASDAQ (5) has been even stronger, up fifteen of the last seventeen. Except for the last week in March, losses during down weeks have been relatively mild. This would seem to suggest selling interest remains subdued and unable to undo the current trend.

 

Market breadth measured by NYSE Weekly Advancers and NYSE Weekly Decliners (6) remained in line with the market throughout the first half of April with Advancers outnumbering Decliners in advancing weeks and vice a versa. However, that was not the situation last week as DJIA and NASDAQ climbed higher while S&P 500 slipped modestly lower and Weekly Decliners outnumbered Weekly Advancers. This could be an early sign of trouble somewhere just over the horizon. Generally when participation wanes a market top is possible soon.

 

Weekly New Highs had been slowly expanding from low double digits back in December to just over 350 in early March, but that trend reversed during the last two weeks (7). This alone would not be so worrisome, but when accompanied by a rising number of new 52-week lows, this would appear to suggest that momentum is possible fading out as fewer and fewer stocks are participating in this rally.

 

Based upon historical market data interest rates are still low (8). Relatively low rates that are reasonably stable should support markets. Yes, the yield curve is flattish and some inversion is present on the short duration end, but because rates appear to have found some stability banks, small and large, will find a way to keep making money.

 

 

As of the today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator (at bottom of following charts) applied to S&P 500 has turned negative. (blue arrow points out shrinking difference between the two lines). However, DJIA’s MACD “Sell” indicator is still positive. Because DJIA’s indicator remains positive, the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell Alert has not been satisfied. Currently, a single-day DJIA decline in excess of 1.08% would be needed to turn DJIA’s MACD indicator negative. A single day gain of 0.50% or more by S&P 500 would turn S&P 500’s MACD indicator positive.

 

Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

 

Earnings season is underway and will kick into high gear next week. The bar for Q1 earnings has been set quite low which could provide the catalyst for stocks to challenge old all-time highs this month. A surge higher by DJIA and S&P 500 would likely delay our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal even further. And should earnings disappoint, our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal could lock in existing gains and avoid any market retreat.

 

 

May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. 

 

In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up ten times in the past twenty years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by eleven sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and four losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Since 1950, pre-election-year Mays rank poorly, #10 DJIA and S&P 500, #7 NASDAQ, #6 Russell 1000 and #5 Russell 2000.

 

 

Based upon the S&P 500, Monday before May option expiration is much stronger than expiration day itself albeit weaker for small caps. Big caps have registered only seven losses in the last thirty-one years on Monday. Expiration day is a loser nearly across the board; Russell 2000 posts a marginal average gain. The full week had a bullish bias that is fading in recent years. The week after options expiration week now favors tech and small caps. DJIA has fallen in eleven of the last twenty weeks after.

 

On Friday before Mother’s Day the DJIA has gained ground sixteen of the last twenty-four years and on the Monday after (the first day of options expiration this year), the blue-chip average has also risen in sixteen of those years.

 

The first two days of May trade higher frequently and the S&P 500 has been up 21 of the last 29 first trading days. A bout of weakness often appears on the third, fourth and around the fifteenth trading day for large cap stocks. Generally, the first half of the month is better than the second half.

 

 

Seasonal MACD Update

 

As of the today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicators (at bottom of following charts) applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive but trending lower (blue arrow points out shrinking difference between the two lines). Currently, DJIA needs to gain a little more than 0.3% to avoid turning its MACD indicator negative. S&P 500 would need to decline nearly 0.5% to turn its MACD indicator negative. In addition to struggling with resistance just below old all-time highs, DJIA and S&P 500 appear to be constrained by projected monthly resistance (red dashed line in upper panes of both charts) over the past several trading sessions. 

 

Economic data remains somewhat mixed with pockets of strength in some areas, such as the labor market, and weakness in others. Most notably slowing growth. Q1 earnings reports are likely to be the next catalyst that could move markets. Expectations are low, perhaps too low. However, what is likely to be of even greater importance will be guidance issued along with Q1 earnings reports. If companies signal that Q1 was just a soft patch, then the market is likely to respond favorably and continue its assault on old all-time highs. If guidance and earnings both disappoint then the opposite is more likely.

 

 

Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

 

The long bond tends to bottom sometime during Q2, typically around the time the stock market reaches its highs, and then enjoys a solid run of strength into Q3 and beyond in some years. Note seasonal strength shaded in yellow in chart below.  Bonds are also a relatively safe place to park capital during the “Worst Six Months” of the year, May through October.

 

 

When investors and/or traders feel threatened with a potential decline in the stock market, they often allocate more money into bonds. This is often referred to as the “flight to safety” trade. Investors and traders will also allocate more money to bonds when they believe the yield is more attractive than other shorter-term investment options. 

 

By going long, the September 30-year Treasury bond on or about April 25, and exiting the position on or about August 20, we discovered in the last 41 years a respectable 70.7% success rate. This trade has a history of 29 wins with 12 losses; the largest win was $20,250 in 2011, and the largest loss was $17,031 in 2013. The trade’s track record over the last 30 years (shaded in grey in table below) is even better with 23 gains and a success rate of 76.7%. Even last year when the market was rising, and the Fed was tightening, the 30-year bond enjoyed a modest rally.

 

Now that the Fed has signaled it is holding off on rate hikes (and is most likely done with the current tightening cycle) this trade could perform better than historical averages. Two key reason why are; first the Fed did not officially announce they are done raising rates which suggest there could still be traders and investors looking for even higher rates (and correspondingly lower prices). Should the Fed make it official there could still be additional demand that jumps into the market. The second reason for more gains is the fact that our 30-year bond yield remains rather attractive to foreign buyers. Our 30-year Treasury bond yielding just under 3.0% does compare quite favorable to Germany’s 0.63% or Japan’s 0.51%. Growth and inflation expectations also remain subdued which could make a nearly 3% yield all that more appealing.

 

 

Stock traders may consider the exchange-traded fund, iShares 20+ Year Bond (TLT), as a replacement for the futures contract. TLT has a little more than $10.6 billion in assets, typically trades more than 7 million shares per day and has a reasonably deep and liquid options chain available. TLT’s expense ratio of just 0.15% is very reasonable and its most recent distribution yield was respectable at 2.64%. 

 

 

Stochastic, MACD and relative strength indicators applied to TLT are tepid and heading lower as its price has slipped from recent highs and into a narrow range over the last several trading sessions. TLT would be attractive on dips below $123.55. Consider adding a half position in TLT now. If TLT trades below this buy limit, before we issue our MACD Seasonal Sell Alert, a half position in TLT will be added to the Almanac Investor Tactical Seasonal Switching ETF Portfolio. Alternatively, TLT trade execution could be postponed until when we issue our MACD Seasonal Sell Signal Alert for DJIA and S&P 500.

 

Few believed us back in May 2010 with the DJIA at 10,000 when we forecasted a 500+% market rise that would put DJIA at 38,820 by the year 2025. Now it looks like we may have been too cautious as DJIA is well above our initial projections as you can see in our updated 15-Year Projection graph below. No one foresaw or anticipated the Fed’s unprecedented quantitative easing program and 8-9 years of near-zero interest rate policy or the 2017 tax cut; and the impact of the two.

 

(For details on the history of this forecast you can check out the last update from March 2018 and the original write-up from our old newsletter archive on pages 10-12 of our June 2010 newsletter as well as pages 40 and 42 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018.)

 

This pattern as illustrated in the updated “500+% Moves Follow Inflation” chart below shows how the market failed to make any sustained advance while the world was embroiled in a significant conflagration. Once the war ended, inflation caused by government spending kicked in and the stock market made 500+% moves between all of the major wars the U.S. has been involved in. All three previous secular bear markets associated with the three major wars of the 20th Century were also affected by crises that required a great deal of non-war-related spending.

 

 

With DJIA up above 26,000 at this writing we could see 38,820 before 2025 or even a year or so later. In any event the Super Boom we forecasted is underway and it may be about to get a big delayed boost from the tech boom we have experienced over the past 20-30 years. In our original and continuing work on the Super Boom we have opined that the final part of the Super Boom equation that fuels the economic boom is what we dubbed “culturally-enabling, paradigm-shifting technology.” 

 

On page 42 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 we detailed a host of potential technologies that could fit the bill. This page is topped with the prescient and salient quote from Yale Hirsch, our founder and the man who discovered this Super Boom pattern and phenomenon back in 1976:

 

“Another factor contributing to productivity is technology, particularly the rapid introduction of new microcomputers based on single-chip circuits.… The results over the next decade will be a second industrial revolution.” — Yale Hirsch (Creator of Stock Trader's Almanac, Smart Money Newsletter 9/22/1976, b. 1923)

 

Two weeks ago the venerable columnist and policy analyst James Pethokoukis put out a first-rate column in his continuing analysis of the imminent “innovation boom” entitled, “The best thing that could happen to the American economy just happened.” In this article Mr. Pethokoukis notes that:

 

“Economists have been waiting and wondering when all the tech advances of the past decade — smartphones, AI, big data, drones — would start showing up in the productivity stats…. economists wondered the same thing about the computer revolution of the 1970s and 1980s — right before the 1990s tech boom…. It took more than a half century for steam power to overtake water as the largest power source in Great Britain. It also took about as long for even half of U.S. factories to become electrified after the introduction of the alternating-current electric motor.” Clearly it takes quite a bit of time for businesses to incorporate and take advantage of new technology and reap the productivity benefits. It appears to us that the world is now on the threshold of this innovation boom.

 

Once again we are revising our 15-Year Projection chart. This was first drawn in 2011 when our book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (Wiley) hit the stores. The projection was based upon, drawn from, years of historical patterns and data. In the years to follow numerous unprecedented events occurred, the Fed held its key lending rate in a range of 0 to 0.25% for an incredible seven years, under took multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and essentially pledged unwavering support for the market. Many other nations and central banks around the world were taking similar or even more aggressive steps to support their own economies and markets. Negative interest rates and negative yields on 10-year bonds are not what we consider normal.

 

Our current updated projection is illustrated in the red line in the chart. In keeping with the history of market performance in pre-election years and the current trajectory of the indices, it would not surprise us for the market to continue rising through April make new high here in Q2, then pause over the weaker summer months before hitting higher highs toward yearend. Next year promises to be an embattled election year and the likelihood of another significant correction or even a bear market are higher.

 

 

With jobless claims hitting the lowest levels in almost 50 years today and the ADP report coming in light and below estimates we would not be surprised if the employment report tomorrow also came in light and below estimates. Historically this has often been the case with the April employment report. As you can see in the table here, the major market benchmarks have not performed well on April jobs day, reflecting disappointment in April’s non-farm payroll numbers.

 

 

With the persistently super low unemployment rate and recent reports that there are more jobs than unemployed this suggests to us businesses are having a hard time finding skilled workers. We don’t think this indicates companies are being cautious due to a struggling economy, rather an economy in need of skilled workers. This could lead to more wage increases.

 

Part of the problem is that there are not enough skilled workers to fill the jobs that are available. Seems like an education gap. In light of the recent college admissions scandal, perhaps we should be focusing on what kinds of education folks need for the jobs that are out there instead of getting into a big name school. In the words of the controversial figure Malcom X, “Education is the passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to those who prepare for it today.”

 

But we are more focused on the technical picture for the market as well as market internals like the new high in the rising NYSE A/D line. Technically speaking things look rather encouraging. The major averages are once again flirting with higher resistance levels. 

 

As the accompanying chart illustrates S&P 500 is now flirting with 2875 resistance, which runs through several important points from the top of last October’s waterfall decline back to the old January 2018 high with the August gap and September consolidation in between. 

 

After battling with resistance at 2815 since mid-October that now becomes support. Below that is 2775. Tomorrow’s non-farm payroll number is less important to us than the market’s reaction to it and the rest of the economic and earnings data out this month. As long as any selling or corrections hold these levels that will be encouraging.

 

In the bottom pane you can see how the broad-based New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) cumulative Advance/Decline (A/D) Line has been rising sharply and steadily since December and continuing to log new highs. This shows that many stocks, not just the big stocks and major indices are participating in this rally. S&P 500’s A/D Line matches the NYSE while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are rising, but have not reached new highs yet.

 

NASDAQ and DJIA are also pushing on this new higher resistance while the Russell 2000 index of small caps is lagging, but it is normal historically for the Russell 2000 to trail large caps at this time of the year.

 

Finally, we have a new Dow Theory buy signal since both the DJIA and Dow Transports closed above their February 2019 highs, according to the Aden Forecast who took over Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters after he passed in 2015. We did not think the Dow Theory Sell Signal back in December when the DJIA and DJTA closed below the October lows was valid since the Dow Utility index did not confirm and the selling was so rampant. 

 

This was also when we ignored the flawed “Death Cross” that usually occurs near bottoms or low points. However, on the flipside the recent “Golden Crosses” in the S&P, DJIA and NASDAQ are bullish as we discussed on the blog last month. You can see the S&P’s Golden Cross in the chart with the pink 50-day moving average crossing above the red 200-DMA.

 

 

 

And of course there are the seasonals. April is the last of the Best Six Months so we are ready for our MACD Sell Signal that will begin our shift to seasonal defense. But let’s not forget the positive implications of our January Indicator Trifecta and bullish history of Pre-Election Year. Encouraging geopolitics and a dovish Fed should keep the rally rolling through April at least. And any constructive developments on a China trade deal or Brexit could easily vault the market to new highs.

 

 

April, the last month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months,” has gotten off to a respectable start this year with major U.S. indexes on track for gains during the first week. DJIA’s slower moving MACD indicator (lower pane of next chart) turned positive on the first trading day of April after spending a ll of March negative and trending lower. S&P 500’s MACD indicator turned positive on the second trading day of April and is trending higher, but at a modestly slower pace (lower pane of second chart below). Blue arrows in each chart point to the positive and expanding difference between the signal line and the difference between the exponential moving averages. An expanding gap typically accompanies a strengthening trend. Currently, the trend is higher, but resistance at previous all-time highs could prove formidable.

 

 

Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal. Based upon today’s close it would take a single day decline of nearly 1.8% by S&P 500 and over a 3.1% decline by DJIA to turn MACD negative.

 

 

March’s biggest winner was technology. NASDAQ lead the charge higher and finished March with a 2.6% gain. S&P 500 and its sizable tech exposure advanced 1.8%. DJIA and Russell 2000 were off that pace. DJIA advanced just 0.05% while small-caps slipped 2.3% lower. The distribution of gains and losses in March is reflected in the Sector Rotation portfolio. Technology related ETFs preformed the best.

 

Due to the mixed results in March, three open trade ideas did trade below their respective but limits and were added to the Sector Rotation portfolio. iShares DJ Transports (IYT) was the first to be added early in March. IYT was up 5.5% at yesterday’s close. SPDR Industrials (XLI) was next, added just ahead of mid-month. XLI also has a solid gain of 4.4%. Lastly, SPDR Financial (XLF) was added two days after the Fed announced a surprising dovish statement that sent bond yields and banks lower. However, the purchase of XLF at that time has resulted in a 3.5% gain. IYT, XLI and XLF are on Hold.

 

Two other trade ideas, SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Vanguard REIT (VNQ) did not trade below their buy limits. With the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500 coming soon, XLY and VNQ trade ideas are cancelled.

 

This leaves three open trades; SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP), SPDR Healthcare (XLV) and SPDR Utilities (XLU). Historically the sectors represented by these ETFs have performed reasonably well during the “Worst Six Months,” May through October. XLU’s seasonality does align well with the “Worst Months” while XLP and XLV have other seasonally favorable periods. Nonetheless, we still want to add all three positions to the portfolio due to their generally defensive nature. Buy limits for XLP, XLV and XLU have been adjusted and all can still be considered on dips.

 

Seasonal Sector Trades in copper and gold had a mixed March. Copper related trades in United States Copper (CPER) and Global X Copper Miners (COPX) had a fair month. COPX is up 19.1% and CPER is up 8.3% on modest gains by copper due to Chinese stimulus efforts and trade deal expectations. DB Gold Double Short (DZZ) is also modestly higher, but gold appears to be settling into a trading range. CPER, COPX and DZZ are on Hold.

 

All other positions in the Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio are currently on Hold.

 

 

 

In our February 7, 2019 ETF Portfolio Update Alert, positions in DIA, IWM, QQQ and SPY were adjusted to account for additional purchases that occurred in early January. This adjustment created unwanted confusion. In the table below this adjustment has been removed. Instead there are now two entries for each position. Positions dated 11/1/18 are the original positions added when our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal was issued. Positions dated 1/10/19 were additional buys from our January 10, 2019 Alert.

 

All positions in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Portfolio are on Hold. Our seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500 can come any day now. In preparation for that day and the corresponding transition to a more cautious position in the portfolio, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) appear at the bottom of the Tactical Switching Strategy portfolio. AGG and BND could be considered on dips or when our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal Alert is issued.