9/23/2020: Dow 26763.13 | S&P 3236.92 | NASDAQ 10633.00 | Russell 2K 1451.46 | NYSE 12359.20 | Value Line Arith 6049.75

 

Fundamental: Stalled. Even though Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is estimating Q3 growth to be a massive 32%, weekly jobless claims and the number of people collecting unemployment benefits remains stubbornly high. Weekly claims continue to hover just under 1 million while over 26 million are still receiving benefits from all programs available. During the comparable period one-year ago, just under 1.5 million were receiving benefits from all programs. This is a significant gap that needs to close for the economy to truly recover. Without improvement, market gains are likely to be restrained.

 

Technical: Correcting. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all retreated back below their respective 50-day moving averages. Thus far, respective 200-day moving averages have held, but could be tested soon. With some rounding S&P 500 (down 9.6% as of Sept 23, close) and NASDAQ (11.8%) have both met the 10% decline to satisfy the common definition of a correction. DJIA has not with its 8.0% peak to recent closing low decline.

 

Monetary: 0 – 0.25%. Low rates are here again, and the Fed has committed to keep them low as long as needed and even longer to ensure its inflation objective is satisfied. The Fed is “all in” with its support for the economy and the market. From the post-financial crisis time of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), market pullbacks and corrections are likely to be limited and shallow when they occur as there is historic levels of liquidity available and few places for it to go outside of equity markets.

 

Seasonal: Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500 and the last month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months”. In election years, October ranks dead last, but excluding October 2008, ranking improves to mid-pack. Keep an eye out for our Official MACD Seasonal Buy Signal. It can trigger anytime on or after October 1.

 

Psychological: Still Elevated. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors have slipped back to 51.5%. Correction advisors stand at 29.1% while Bearish advisors stand at 19.4%. Compared to the late August Bullish advisors peak of 61.5%, bullish sentiment has retreated, but it has not pulled back enough to give a “all clear” signal for new buying.

 

Stock market seasonality has clearly been turned on its head this year. S&P 500 was down -4.1% during the Best Six Months (November-April) from October 31, 2019 to April 30, 2020, while it has been up 11.1% so far during the Worst Six Months (May-October) from April 30, 2020 through the close on September 23, 2020. However, with S&P 500 down -7.5% for September to date it appears seasonals are back in style again. 

 

The typical end-of-September weakness is priming a constructive set up for our next Best Six & Eight Months Seasonal MACD Buy signal. October is the last month of the Worst Six Months and Worst Four Months. So it is time to begin preparing for our Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Best Six/Eight Months MACD Buy Signal. It can come any time on or after October 1. 

 

When it triggers we will email all subscribers an Alert with instructions on closing out our Bond ETF positons and redeploying into Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 ETFs. The criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is a new buy signal using our 8-17-9 MACD indicator on or after the first trading day of October and DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ must be in agreement. Over the coming weeks we will be presenting a new basket of our top stocks and seasonal ETF sector trades poised to capitalized on our Best Months Strategies. 

 

Our stock selections will all come through our fundamental screens for reasonably solid valuations, healthy revenue and earnings growth, while exhibiting positive price and volume action as well as other constructive technical and chart pattern indications. The group generally covers a broad array of sectors and industries. It also runs the gamut of market capitalization with a mix of large caps with more than $5 billion in market value, midcaps in the $1-5 billion range, and small caps under $1 billion.

 

Our annual October ETF buying spree comes from the sector seasonalities in the Stock Trader’s Almanac on pages 92, 94 and 96. Every year while preparing the annual Almanac, we revisit and analyze our seasonal sector trades in depth in order to make adjustments for any new or developing trends. Years of sector research allows us to specify whether the seasonality starts or finishes in the beginning third (B), middle third (M) or last third (E) of the month based upon the number of trading days in the month.

 

 

There is no denying that market seasonality has not worked so well this year. But we have been here before and history is on our side. Over the long term, intermediate term and short term market seasonality has suffered brief periods when seasonality was overridden by more powerful forces. The COVID pandemic and economic shutdown certainly qualifies. But it is only a matter of time until repetitive human behavior patterns and people and institutions return to moving money around in the usual daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and seasonal patterns.

 

The return of perennial September weakness is emblematic of a return to normal market behavior and a reflection of the fact that despite the continuing concerns about surges in coronavirus cases life is beginning to return to normal. In our area, about 25-30 miles north of New York City, our kids are beginning hybrid learning, playing rugby, lacrosse and other sports (yes with some COVID protocols, but tackling and facing-off), golf outings are happening and people are going to restaurants and out and about.

 

 

The chart here shows the historical One-Year Pattern of the S&P 500 Since 1950 versus 2020. The black line shows the seasonal pattern since 1950. The blue represents the pattern since 1988. We use 1988 as it is the first year after the 1987 Crash when the market underwent a major systemic change with the implementation of downside protection circuit breakers and collars. It is noteworthy how the seasonal pattern persists during both the 70-year and 31-year timeframes. 

 

2020 is plotted on the right axis due to the magnitude of the move this year. The yellow box highlights the rebirth of seasonality this September, especially during this notoriously negative Week After Triple Witching Week as detailed page 108 of the 2020 Almanac, indicated by the two black arrows 

 

Years like 1980, 1982, 2009 and 2016 with unseasonably early weakness and bear markets like 2020 returned to normal seasonal patterns in short order. And years like 1954, 1958, 1980, 1982, 1995 and 2009 that exhibited double-digit gains in the Worst Six Months still proceeded to deliver further sizable gains in the subsequent Best Six Months (page 52, STA 2020). We believe the return of market seasonality is upon us. So remain cautious through the end of September and be alert to Octoberophobia, but remain ready to pounce on our Best Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal, when it triggers.

 

 

September and the third quarter will come to an end in just four trading sessions. Excesses accumulated in July and August are being worked out in rather typical September market trading. Seasonality is not dead after all. September is DJIA’s worst month going back to 1950 and as of the close on September 23, DJIA is down 5.9% this September and 8% off its recovery high. Broad weakness was observed ahead of Rosh Hashanah and around quarterly options expiration. During DJIA’s retreat it closed below its 50-day moving average (1). Next key support is the 200-day moving average which is currently just under 26300. Should this level hold, DJIA will narrowly avoid the 10% decline threshold that is commonly used to define a correction.

 

Recent weakness has also turned both the faster and slower moving MACD indicators applied to DJIA negative (2). MACD indicators for S&P 500 and NASDAQ are also negative. This pullback appears to be setting up our Seasonal MACD Buy signal nicely. As a reminder, the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is a new buy signal using our 8-17-9 MACD indicator on or after the first trading day of October and DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ must be in agreement. 

 

DJIA’s streak of winning first trading days of the week did come to an end in August at thirteen in a row and since then four of the last six Mondays have been losers. Two of the Down Mondays were preceded by Down Fridays triggering the sixth and seventh Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) warnings of 2020 (3). Weakness on Fridays and Mondays has historically signaled waning investor and trader confidence which was frequently followed by further market weakness sometime in the next 90 calendars. Declines were not always immediate and tended to be milder when the Fed was aggressively supporting the economy and market.

 

Following six straight weeks of gains, S&P 500 (4) and NASDAQ (5) have declined the last three weeks and are currently on track for a fourth week of losses. Technology shares enjoyed the greatest gains on the path higher and have also suffered a larger share of the declines. It will likely be tech that finds support first and leads the broader market higher when uncertainty around the economy and the election begins to fade.

 

Market breadth measured by NYSE Weekly Advancers and NYSE Weekly Decliners (6) has favored decliners in two of the last three weeks. Breadth was positive last week even as DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all posted modest weekly losses. This would suggest an attempt at rotating out of mega-cap, index components and into other areas of the market was underway. Considering the appeal (and returns) of mega-cap tech this year, it is likely this rotation will not persist.

 

Weekly New Highs (7) have also slipped modestly lower in each of the last two weeks while Weekly New Lows have begun to tick higher. This is reasonable within the context of the current market pullback. A bounce in New Highs and/or pause and retreat in New Lows could be an indication the pullback has run its course. A clear indication of this is currently lacking. 

 

Even after the Fed announced that it expects interest rates to remain low, longer than previously thought, the 30-year Treasury rate has remained relatively stable just above 1.4% for the last five weeks (8). Apparently, bond traders and investors are skeptical the Fed will be successful in achieving its inflation objectives. Low rates are giving the housing market a boost and have historically been beneficial to stocks as well. 

 

 

October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens.

 

But October has become a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%). However, eight were midterm bottoms. Over the last 21 years, October’s performance has been solid. Average gains over the last 21-years range from 1.3% by Russell 1000 to 2.4% by NASDAQ. Small caps have still struggled though with Russell 2000 gaining a modest 0.5%

 

 

Election-year Octobers rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1980). Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a moderate amount of relief, as rankings climb to mid pack. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.

 

Another interesting aspect of election-year Octobers is the propensity for S&P 500 gains when the incumbent party ultimately retains the White House. Of the ten incumbent victories since 1944, the S&P 500 has advanced seven times, declined twice, and was unchanged in 1944 with an average October gain of 1.4%. Of the nine occurrences since 1944 when the incumbent was defeated, there were six S&P 500 declines and three advances in October. The average October decline when incumbents were defeated was 2.1%. Even excluding the S&P’s 16.9% plunge in 2008, incumbent defeats were still preceded by an average October loss of 0.3%. 

 

 

Options expiration week in October provides plenty of opportunity. On the Monday before expiration the DJIA has only been down nine times since 1980 and the Russell 2000 is up twenty-two of the last thirty years, seventeen straight from 1990 to 2006. Expiration day has a spotty record as does the week as a whole. After a market bottom in October, the week after is most bullish, otherwise it is susceptible to downdrafts.

 

October is also the end of the Dow and S&P 500 “Worst 6 Months” and NASDAQ “Worst 4 Months”. Remain attentive for our Seasonal Buy Signal that can occur anytime beginning October 1. An email Alert will be sent when it triggers.

 

 

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement. 

 

The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there. 

 

Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months. 

 

 

Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%. 

 

This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

 

After months of above average gains, the market has run into some trouble in what has historically been the worst month of the year, September, going back to 1950. As we noted in our September Outlook, in late August, the market was ripe for a pause and a corresponding pullback. Sentiment had reached lofty levels, valuations were at a minimum stretched and covid-19 was and still is depressing the economy. With numerous parts of the economy still restricted and/or completely shut down, unemployment has also remained persistently elevated while Congress continues to flounder with the next round of fiscal support.

 

We do not expect the current weakness to manifest into another bear. Most likely this current rout will be limited to a more typical pullback/correction that have occurred in past bull markets. For S&P 500 the average correction in a bull market since 1948 has been 14.3%. NASDAQ had soared highest and could slide furthest. DJIA and Russell 2000 lagged during the rally and are likely to retreat the least. Low rates, ample Fed liquidity and the high probability of additional government stimulus (most likely more targeted than previous rounds) will likely provide the support to stave off a deeper market retreat.

 

 

This week’s Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) is the first since March and is some cause for concern, but the fallout could be contained to September or possibly September-October. One potentially beneficial side effect of the current pullback is visible in the charts above. Technical indicators have retreated to levels that have not been seen since June or even late March depending on index and MACD has turned negative. Should the market retreat further, find support and consolidate, our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal could be well setup. The earliest our Seasonal Buy Signal can occur is October 1. Until then, caution is in order as the market works off its accumulated excesses. 

 

 

Over the last four weeks through yesterday’s close, S&P 500 climbed 0.6% and Russell 2000 dropped 3.6%. During the same time period the entire portfolio slipped 1.7% lower excluding dividends and any trading fees. Our Large-cap stocks weighted heavily on overall performance as defensive names, for the most part, failed to participate in August’s market rally and were down 7.3% collectively since last update. The Small-cap portion of the portfolio also drifted modestly lower with a 0.9% loss. Mid-caps were best, up 0.4% on average.

 

Once again overall performance lagged the broader indexes due to being concentrated in generally defensive positions (shaded in grey in the table below) – specifically a sizable number of utilities and a significant percentage of the portfolio in cash. It has been a challenging year for seasonality, but September appears to be getting seasonality back on track and we will continue to maintain a defensive posture in the Almanac Investor Stock and ETF Portfolios until we issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on or after October 1.

 

Aside from general weakness in defensive positions, falling crude oil also weighed on positions in the Large-cap section of the portfolio. BP p.l.c. (BP) was the first to close below its stop loss on August 21 and get closed out for an 11.4% decline. Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed below its stop today and also has been closed out of the portfolio for an 8.5% loss. Persistent weakness in the energy sector is most likely the result of tepid growth forecasts, an abundance of supply and a broad and expanding interest in and use of alternative energy sources.

 

Zto Express (ZTO), one of just two positions to survive March’s bear market, was also stopped out today. Second quarter earnings, released in mid-August, were a soft miss. Shares appear to have stalled out ahead of earnings and have been trending lower since. If ZTO can get expenses reined in and get gross margins heading in the right direction again, it would be worth another look. Until then we will let it go.

 

Small-caps and Mid-caps are barely represented in the portfolio as both have been unable to maintain positive momentum. Small-caps typically do lag during the summer months and this is one seasonal pattern that has held this year. KB Home (KBH) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU) are too bright spots in the Small- and Mid-cap portfolios. KBH is modestly lower over the past four weeks, but is still up 67.2% while JBLU was up 5.5% over the same period and is up 43.3% since addition in April. KBH and JBLU are on Hold.

 

One Gas Inc. (OGS) was also recently stopped out. Shares of OGS have been trending lower since sharply rebounding in April. Second quarter earnings were fair with a bottom-line beat however, a decline in revenues was not well received. If shares can find some price stability and stop their slide lower, its forward dividend yield over 3% would be even more attractive. 

 

All positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please see table below for specific buy limits, stop losses and current advice.

 

 

Seasonally speaking in a typical year, crude oil tends to make significant price gains in the summer, as vacationers and the annual trek of students returning to college in August creates increased demand for unleaded gasoline. The market can also price in a premium for supply disruptions due to threats of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. However, towards mid-September, we often see a seasonal tendency for prices to peak out, as the driving and hurricane seasons begin to wind down. Crude oil’s seasonal decline is highlighted in yellow in the following chart.

 

 

Last year this trade did not work out all that well. Crude oil did reach a peak in September and pullback into early October, but then quickly reversed and trended higher into early January of this year. Then as covid-19 began to spread, crude oil began to decline and eventually collapsed in March and April as economies around the globe shutdown in an effort to slow the spread of covid-19. As economies have reopened, to various degrees, crude oil has recovered, and the front month contract is currently trading just above $40 per barrel.

 

 

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) is one vehicle to take advantage of seasonal weakness. SCO’s benchmark is the Bloomberg Commodity Balanced WTI Crude Oil Sub index which is comprised of crude oil futures contracts. SCO is designed to return 200% of the inverse of the daily move of this index and has just over $100 million in assets. Its expense ratio of 0.95% is about average for a leveraged, inverse ETF.

 

Crude oil’s recovery from May’s lows has caused a corresponding decrease in SCO. Currently crude oil has weakened modestly and stochastic, relative strength and MACD Buy indicators applied to SCO have begun to improve. SCO could be considered at current levels up to a buy limit of $15.75. SCO will be tracked in the Almanac Investor Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio. If purchased, an initial stop loss at $14.90 is suggested.

 

 

Even as the S&P 500 enjoyed the best August performance since 1986, defensive positions in the portfolio held up well. Historically dull, SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) continued its advance and was up 18.3% at yesterday’s close. Technology has led the market higher since the March low and it was responsible for a substantial portion of August’s 7.0% S&P 500 advance (NASDAQ climbed 9.6%). Biotechnology however did not participate in August’s tech rally. iShares NASDAQ Biotech (IBB) and SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI) both slipped lower in the month as traders’ and investors’ focus shifted away from covid-19 vaccines and toward the momentum in other technology shares.

 

The second of July’s short trade ideas, SPDR Industrials (XLI) traded up to resistance and was shorted on August 7 but was stopped out on August 11 when it closed above its stop for a modest loss of 3.8%.

 

Last month’s two new trade ideas in technology and biotech have both been added to the portfolio. XBI was modestly lower at yesterday’s close and slipped another 3.7% lower today. iShares DJ US Tech (IYW) was added on August 7 and was up 12.2% at yesterday’s close. Even after today’s 5.9% decline the position is still up nicely. XBI and IYW are on Hold.

 

After reaching new all-time highs in early August, SPDR Gold (GLD) did pullback and surrender some of its gains. Gold’s gains were fueled by ultra-easy monetary policy, deficit spending and a weakening dollar. All that appears to have changed since gold reached its record high and the pace of dollar weakening has slowed. GLD is on Hold.

 

iShares Silver (SLV) was added on August 7 when it opened below its buy limit. Like gold, silver has been modestly weaker and SLV was lower by 1.5% at yesterday’s close and another 3.2% today. Should gold regain traction and breakout to new all-time highs again, silver and SLV are likely to move higher as well. SLV is on Hold.

 

 

 

The second month of the worst two-month span (August-September) has arrived. September had gotten off to a strong start until today. September is the worst month of the year for the market since 1950 and bullish election-year forces have only had limited effect on past Septembers. Even though the market has enjoyed a stellar summer rally this year, it is not impervious to a pullback, correction or even a sizable one-day selloff.

 

Defensive, “Worst Months” positions in the portfolio continue to perform. AGG and BND are positive with gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively excluding dividends and trading costs. AGG and BND on Hold.