Please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, July 2024 Outlook and Update on Wednesday July 3, 2024, at 1:00 PM EDT here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3262979316504626272   

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for July, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the Fed, inflation, NASDAQ’s “Worst Months,” the election as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

 

6/27/2024: Dow 39164.06 | S&P 5482.87 | NASDAQ 17858.68 | Russell 2K 2038.34 | NYSE 18009.09 | Value Line Arith 10124.26

 

Seasonal: Neutral. July is the #1 S&P 500 and NASDAQ month over the last 21 years, but July is the first month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Months” and election year performance has been softer. Election-year Julys rank #6 for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950, #9 for NASDAQ (1971) and #10 for Russell 2000 (1979).

 

Fundamental: Softening. Today’s third estimate of Q1 GDP was revised higher to 1.4%, but the improvement came with a downward revision to consumer spending. Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims have been ticking higher along with the unemployment rate. This all suggests that the labor market is softening. Interest rates are still elevated due to persistent inflation that has thus far refused to return to around 2%. If the consumer continues to retreat, it will not be long before corporate earnings could take a hit. 

 

Technical: Mixed. Fueled by AI enthusiasm, NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all-time highs in June, while DJIA has lagged behind. NASDAQ and S&P 500 remain well above their respective 50-day moving average, DJIA appears unable to break away from its 50-day moving average in either direction. Weekly market breadth and weekly New Highs/Lows data is currently signaling fading participation in the rally. Overlaid with seasonal factors that will turn more bearish in the second half of July, the market is suspectable to a mild single-digit retreat. Should that transpire, levels to watch are: DJIA’s 200-day moving average around 37150, S&P 500 5250 and NASDAQ 16700. 

 

Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. The best educated guess we can offer is for perhaps one, maybe two small 0.25% rate reductions later this year by the Fed. This is based upon current inflation metric trends and current economic data. The CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool is slightly more optimistic with a 64.1% chance of a cut at the Fed’s September meeting. Some of the stellar year-to-date market gain is surely in anticipation of the Fed cutting rates. Eventually something will give. Either inflation will retreat, and a soft landing will occur, or the economy has a hard landing and the Fed is forced to cut.

 

Sentiment: Frothy. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 61.5%. Correction advisors are at 20.0% while Bearish advisors numbered 18.5% as of their June 26 release. Bullish sentiment has soared to just below its recent peak of 62.5% at the end of March just ahead of April’s decline. A cautious stance is warranted at this time as better opportunities will likely arrive later this year.

 

Midyear Russell Index and institutional fund portfolio rebalancing, along with Q2 earnings season and the start of the second half of the year have made July the best month of the third quarter. We continue to expect the bull market to march ahead and achieve more new highs through yearend. But the outsized gains so far this year may have the market out a little too far over its skis. 

 

NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally over the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July discussed in the July Almanac is also likely due to all the late-June/early-July rebalancing and Q2 earnings reports. After this run, which usually peaks out near mid-month, a mild pullback in the 5-8% range would not be surprising. Affectionately referred to as “Christmas in July” this midyear rally is clearly visible here in the chart below. 

 

 

As a reminder we issued our NASDAQ Best 8 Months Seasonal MACD Sell signal on Tuesday, June 25. Considering NASDAQ’s historical Midyear Rally began the next day this was not the timeliest signal. Instead of outright selling QQQ and IWM positions we suggested one way to trade the Sell Signal along with the Midyear Rally would be to continue to hold the positions with a tight trailing stop loss of 1% or so, updated daily on the close. This way if the Midyear Rally takes place, additional upside can be realized while protecting existing gains.

 

 

Bullish election year forces have conspired with a generational technology macro trend from generative AI and all the related and ancillary industries to drive the market higher than anyone expected. In fact, we surmise that this AI may very well be the “culturally-enabling, paradigm-shifting technology” that fuels the next leg of our 2010 Super Boom Forecast we updated here in April. 

 

But looking at our updated Election Year Seasonal Charts below for S&P 500 and NASDAQ it is clear that the current 2024 market is tracking the trend, yet at least one, if not several standard deviations above the levels of the multiple election year and other seasonal scenarios we have mapped out. At this juncture S&P is even 5 percent points above the most bullish Top Q1 Election Years set up. The market has already reached and surpassed the 8-15% level of our 2024 Annual Forecast Base Case projection. While this brings our Best Case forecast of 15-25% gains for 2024 into play, the market looks like it’s due for some mean reversion. 

 

We have added the brown line showing the average seasonal pattern of the 7 years in the table shown below these charts in which bullish April was down followed by both May and June being higher as that looks like the case this year with one trading day left in June. This brown line seasonal pattern shows a 9% pullback from the August high to the October low. Only three of these 7 years are election years: 1952, 1960 and 2004. 5 of the 7 years suffered a 2.3-7.8% correction in Q3, 1987 was hammered -23.2% in Q4 due to the ’87 crash and 1993 was barely bruised off -0.3% in Q2. 

 

 

 

 

Unless something dramatic transpires this evening in this unprecedented Presidential Election debate and barring any major surprises over the next two weeks, look for the Midyear Rally to pull the market higher into mid-July. After that the market will be susceptible to election campaign and political missteps, Fed jawboning, economic data disappointments and the Summer Market Volume Doldrums (2024 STA page 50). Beware of the Summer Rally hype (2024 STA page 74), as it is the weakest rally of all seasons and can suck you in to a dull market environment where market participants have shifted their focus to the Presidential campaigns and debates and summer activities.

 

Almanac Investor subscribers have been enjoying the market’s handsome gains since going long last October, so sit tight take some profits, tighten up stops, generate some cash and hold some short-term bonds paying 5%+ while we wait for the fatter pitch. Have a happy and safe Independence Day Holiday!

 

 

NASDAQ and S&P 500 surged in June to new all-time highs, but DJIA did not. Instead, DJIA has been marking time oscillating around its 50-day moving average (1). Bullishly, DJIA support around 37,700 has held and DJIA has been making a series of higher lows, but also the beginning of lower highs. Thus far the positive impacts of the AI-fueled technology-driven rally have not boosted DJIA. Absent catalyst, DJIA could be slipping into a “Worst Months” trading range.

 

DJIA strength during the holiday shortened week ending June 21 and earlier this week was sufficient to reverse both the faster and slower moving MACD indicators to their current modestly positive state (2). Due to the limited duration of gains, both MACD indicators have already begun trending back toward a negative crossover. DJIA has lagged NASDAQ and S&P 500 throughout the year and there still is no sign that this will change.

 

 

Much of DJIA’s lagging performance can be seen comparing weekly results over the last 20 weeks. The gap has only grown larger since the week after mid-May, ending May 24. DJIA (3) has declined in three of the last five weeks compared to just one weekly loss for S&P 500 (4) and NASDAQ (5). Although DJIA has been down on a Friday or a Monday during six of the last seven weeks, DJIA has not recorded a Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) since mid-April. Should DJIA record a DF/DM in coming weeks, it may be prudent to closely review market conditions and remaining portfolio holdings.

 

Market breadth in June was not as solidly bullish as month-to-date gains would suggest. Last week (ending June 21) was the only week (6) in June where Weekly Advancers outnumbered Weekly Decliners and even then, NASDAQ was essentially unchanged, up just 0.003%. In the prior two weeks, S&P 500 and NASDAQ had solid gains while Decliners handily exceeded Weekly Advancers. Concentrated gains, those made by a handful of stocks or a narrow sector, are fine as long as they remain gains. However, should the appeal fade, losses could also be just as spectacular.

 

In concert with concerning market breadth metrics, Weekly New Highs and New Lows have been heading in the wrong direction since mid-May (7). New Weekly Highs have retreated while New Lows have expanded. With S&P 500 and NASDAQ setting new all-time closing highs, broader participation would be expected. Instead, it would appear that the market may be in the process of forming an interim top.

 

Economic data has continued to show signs of slowing growth. This has supported the existing trend in the 30-year Treasury bond yield lower (8) (and the 10-year Treasury bond yield, not shown). Q1 GDP was revised slightly higher today but remains at its slowest pace since 2022. This will likely only make the Fed’s job all that much more challenging as the slowing growth has yet to result in a meaningful retreat in inflation readings.  

 

 

As of today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator applied to NASDAQ is negative. At the start of trading today, following the previous session’s loss, NASDAQ needed to gain more than 274.23 (+1.57%) today to keep MACD positive. Today’s gains on turnaround Tuesday were simply not enough. NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” has come to an end. We are now issuing our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for NASDAQ.

 

 

 

Sell Invesco QQQ (QQQ). 

 

Sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM).

 

For tracking purposes, these positions will be closed out of the Tactical Switching Strategy ETF Portfolio using their respective average prices on Wednesday, June 26.

 

Existing positions in TLT, AGG and BND on are Hold. Cash, money market, and/or short-duration bond ETFs like SHV and SGOV are likely to be the least risky during the “Worst Months” this year. SHV and SGOV can be considered at current levels.

 

 

Sell the SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) position in the Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio established last October. For tracking purposes, we will also close out the position in SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) from last October. There is a separate XLP trade associated with the “Worst Months” that was presented on May 9, which can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $76.20. XLY will be closed out using its average price on Wednesday, June 26.

 

iShares US Technology (IYW) was closed out of the portfolio on June 12 when it first traded above its auto sell price of $146.54. If you have not already closed out IYW, you may consider doing so now that NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD signal has triggered.

 

 

Today’s NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell signal is not timely considering NASDAQ’s historical Midyear Rally begins tomorrow and usually runs until July 12 (ninth trading day of July). One way to trade the Midyear rally would be to continue to hold QQQ with a tight trailing stop loss, perhaps 1%, updated daily on the close. If the Midyear rally takes hold, additional upside will be enjoyed, but if the rally fades then existing gains will still be protected.

 

As a reminder, members following the Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle switching strategy on page 64 of the 2024 Almanac need not heed this seasonal sell signal as the strategy is still in its holding period and remains so until post-election year 2025.

 

 

NASDAQ’s June surge ran into a bump today, falling 0.79%, but NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator remains positive. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM. It would take a single day decline exceeding 499.75 NASDAQ points (–2.82%) to turn NASDAQ’s MACD negative.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to existing bond ETF and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter, however the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. “Hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% combined with strong performances in 2013, 2018, and 2022 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 have been up nine straight Julys (2015-2023). Russell 2000 has been up seven times in the same period (down in 2015 and 2021). Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2024).

 

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the sixth best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed second half. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a bearish bias over the last 21 years. In election years since 1950, July has tended to be a dull month filled with choppy trading.

 

 

July’s first trading day is the third best performing first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 1679.02 points since 1998. Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 81.0% of the time with an average advance of 0.38%. S&P 500 has advanced 90.5% of the time (average gain 0.46%). NASDAQ has been similarly bullish advancing 85.7% of the time (0.51% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength, which supports the case for declaring the first trading day of July the most consistently bullish day of the year over the past 21 years. Although, the third from last day of August is rising to challenge for this title.

 

Trading on the day before and after the Independence Day holiday is often lackluster. Volume tends to decline on either side of the holiday as vacations begin early and/or finish late. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have recorded net losses on the day after.

 

 

Election-year July rankings are something of a mixed bag, ranking #6 for DJIA and S&P 500, averaging gains of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively (since 1950). For NASDAQ (since 1971) election-year Julys rank #9 with an average loss of 0.1%. Despite a modest average gain, election-year Julys rank #10 for Russell 2000 with six losses in eleven election years since 1979.

 

 

 

In the mid-1980s tech’s influence in the market began to grow and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 30 of the past 39 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. Look for this rally to begin around June 26 and run until about July 12.

 

After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last fourteen years, up twelve times with two losses. After struggling in the bear market of 2022, NASDAQ resoundingly rebounded last year to gain 4.1% compared to a total July gain of 4.0%.

 

 

Our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD Signal remains positive keeping the portfolios positioned to benefit from the Midyear Rally. The best scenario would be for NASDAQ to quickly shake off today’s weakness and resume its June surge higher.

 

 

 

Fueled by softer than expected CPI and PPI readings, NASDAQ continues to charge higher. As of today’s close, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator remains positive and is trending higher. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM. It would take a single day decline exceeding 846.72 NASDAQ points (–4.79%) to turn NASDAQ’s MACD negative.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to existing bond ETF and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

June is the final month of NASDAQ’s Best Eight months (2024 STA pages 60 & 150) and our Seasonal MACD indicator is working as intended keeping us in associated long positions established last October as NASDAQ continues to push higher and higher into record territory. As of the close on June 12, NASDAQ was up 5.2% with more than half a month of trading remaining. That performance alone is sufficient to rank this June as NASDAQ’s 10th best June ever. Should NASDAQ continue to climb, this June could quickly break into the top five or possibly better with 10 trading days remaining.

 

 

We have compiled the table above consisting of all positive Junes since 1971. At the bottom of the table relevant summary statistics for All Positive Junes, >5% Junes, and All Years are presented for comparison. Shaded years are past election years. The first observation about positive Junes is they have not frequently been followed by entirely smooth sailing for the remainder of the year as there is plenty of red throughout the table. It is also not surprising to see numerous down months during NASDAQ’s Worst Four Months, July through October with September and October performing the worst on average.

 

Compared to All Years, the biggest change following any positive June occurred in October with sharp drops in Average, Median, and % Higher figures. October’s average All Year gain of 0.7% became an average loss of 1.4%. Median performance fell from +2.2% to a loss of 1.1% and the percentage of positive Octobers dropped from 54.7% to 43.3%. September’s poor All Year performance remained nearly the same. July’s performance softened in All Positive Junes, but then strengthened in >5% Junes. August performance improved as did November, December and Q4. Full year performance improved as well especially following a >5% June.  

 

NASDAQ’s historical performance after a positive June is similar to S&P 500’s performance following a Down April with chop and weakness in Q2 and Q3 followed by respectable gains in Q4. Barring a major economic or geopolitical event, we continue to anticipate choppy trading through the Worst Months with no significant gains after NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD signal triggers.

 

 

Over the past four weeks through yesterday’s close (June 12), S&P 500 rose 2.1% while Russell 2000 slipped 2.5% lower. Over the same period the entire stock portfolio declined 1.1% excluding dividends, interest on cash and any trading fees while the cash balance increased further. Within the portfolio, Small Caps were the only group to advance, up 6%. Large and Mid-Caps declined 1.3% and 5.3% respectively.

 

A significant portion of the portfolio’s total decline was the result of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) retreating from over $900 per share to $774.74 as of its close on June 12. SMCI is the largest stock position in the portfolio by value even after taking profits twice. Its volatility will impact overall performance more heavily than any other position. Bullishly, SMCI did gain over 12% today, nearly $100 per share. SMCI is on Hold.

 

Last update Mama’s Creations (MAMA) was a source of outsized gains. MAMA’s pace of gains has slowed, but not before triggering an automatic sale on May 30 when it traded at and above $7.18, double its original price. Per standard trading guidelines, noted at the bottom of the portfolio table, half the original position in MAMA was sold. MAMA shares have softened since reporting earnings on June 11, but this weakness is likely profit taking as we did. Reported revenues surged 29%. This is a solid number for a consumer staples stock. MAMA’s relationship with Costco also appears to be going well. MAMA is on Hold. 

 

After surging to new all-time highs in April, Reliance (RS) began to struggle as commodity prices began to soften and earnings missed analyst estimates. RS was stopped out of the portfolio on June 11 when it closed below its stop loss at $282.21. Excluding dividends and trading costs, RS was closed out for a 42.4% gain.

 

All remaining positions not mentioned above are on Hold. Please see table below for updated stop losses. Please note, the high level of cash in the portfolio is the result of market conditions and our seasonal based overlay we apply to the portfolio that is consistent with our Seasonal Switching Strategy for the major indexes. We are not targeting a specific percentage of cash allocation.

 

 

In case you missed the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, June 5, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar Jeff reviewed key seasonal pattern charts that we have been tracking throughout the year, current GDP and inflation trends, Fed interest rate expectations, and the status of NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator which has NOT triggered yet. More on the signal below.

 

Jeff also reviewed the history of the S&P 500 following a strong May performance (>3% advance in May) and the general market strength that historically followed. This strength is in stark contrast to the historical market weakness that followed a down April. With the aid of a keen Almanac Investor member (hat tip to Mike) we are going to delve deeper into the combination of an S&P 500 down April followed by a positive May, including those up >3%.

 

 

Going back to 1950, a S&P 500 April decline followed by a May gain has happened 10 other times prior to this year. Of the 10 previous occurrences, three transpired in presidential years (shaded rose/orange in all tables). When combined the results are better than just a down April, but still not as solid as the positive May table suggests. Q2 performance remains reasonable firm, up 80% of the time with an average gain of 1.2% while Q3 performance weakens substantially from an average gain of 2.3% following just a strong May to an average loss of 3.2% when the positive May followed a down April. Q4 and full year performance also weakened noticeably. All three tables are below for quick, direct comparison.

 

 

In conclusion it appears that the negative implications of a down April have a greater impact than the positive implications of a strong May. This is supported by the fact that the majority of strong Mays came after positive Aprils. This does not change our outlook. We still anticipate full-year gains in line with our 8-15% annual forecast, and for the market to bounce around and gain little ground over the next couple of months.

 

 

As of today’s close, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator is positive and trending higher, continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM. It would take a single day decline exceeding 270.30 NASDAQ points (–1.57%) to turn MACD negative. As a reminder, the criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to existing bond ETF and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

There are two new Sector Seasonalities that begin in June, a bearish period for natural gas stocks that is based upon the NYSE ARCA Natural Gas index (XNG) and a similarly bearish seasonality in oil stocks based upon NYSE ARCA Oil index (XOI). We are going to pass on both trade setups. Natural gas prices have been kept in check by domestic inventories that are above the 5-year average for this time of the year due to a mild winter and adequate supply. While natural gas prices could go lower, the risk of a spike higher during hurricane season due to supply disruptions outweighs any potential reward of a short position. Geopolitical instability and OPEC+ confirming supply cuts will remain in place suggesting that crude oil has likely reached a floor after retreating the last two months.

 

 

Three bullish and one bearish Sector Seasonalities come to an end in June. Starting at the top of the table on the bottom of page 94 in the 2024 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the bullish trade based upon XNG comes first. Our correlating ETF position, presented on February 1, First Trust Natural Gas (FCG), was up 17.6% as of its close on June 5. FCG is modestly higher today but has been exhibiting some weakness since peaking in April. Sell FCG. For tracking purposes FCG will be closed out of the portfolio using its average price on June 7.

 

The next seasonality to end is a bearish period for gold and silver stocks based upon the Gold and Silver index (XAU). We passed on trading this seasonality earlier this year and there are no correlating positions in the portfolio to close out.

 

Lastly, bullish seasonalities associated with Consumer Discretionary and Staples come to an end in June. The position in SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was up 9.0% as of its close on June 5. We will continue to hold XLY until the NASDAQ Seasonal MACD Sell triggers. There are currently two open positions of SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) in the portfolio. The oldest XLP position from last fall is up 15.4% and will also be closed when the NASDAQ Seasonal MACD Sell signal triggers. The newer XLP position is a defensive position for the “Worst Months.” Older members can consider adding to their existing position in XLP while newer members can still consider XLP on dips below its buy limit of $76.20. We have split the two positions solely for tracking purposes.

 

Recent technology sector strength resulted in above average gains and the triggering of an auto-sell in late-May. SPDR Technology (XLK) traded above its auto-sell price of $214.18 on May 20 and was sold for a gain of 26.2% excluding dividends and trading fees. As a reminder, alternate profit taking strategies are acceptable if you continue to hold XLK. One could wait until NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell signal and/or utilize a tight trailing stop loss.

 

Positions in other sectors that have historically performed well during the “Worst Months,” XLV and XLU can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits.

 

 

 

Continue to Hold QQQ and IWM. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal is positive and trending higher. The strategy does not utilize a stop loss on these positions, but should this approach exceed your risk tolerance a trailing stop loss can be considered at this time.

 

Defensive, partial positions in bond ETFs, TLT, AGG, BND, SHV and SGOV, are flat to slightly positive. TLT, AGG and BND are on Hold. The performance of TLT, AGG and BND will likely depend greatly upon the timing of Fed rate cuts, which remains highly uncertain. Our preferred bond ETFs are SHV and SGOV as both exhibit relatively stable pricing and have yields exceeding 5%. Our plan is to add to SHV and SGOV positions when NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal triggers, but they can be considered at current levels up to their respective buy limits.