Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, August 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday July 30, 2025, at 4:00 PM EDT here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/797730219678914651 

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for August 2025, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, tariffs, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

 

7/24/2025: Dow 44693.91 | S&P 6363.35 | NASDAQ 21057.96 | Russell 2K 2252.13 | NYSE 20853.42 | Value Line Arith 11673.05

 

Seasonal: Bearish. August is the worst DJIA and Russell 2000 and second worst S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 month over the last 37 years, 1988-2024 with average performance ranging from +0.1% by NASDAQ to a –0.8% loss by DJIA. In post-election years, Augusts’ rankings are little changed, but performance has been negative. Average declines in post-election year Augusts range from –0.5% by Russell 2000 to –1.5% by DJIA. Each index has also seen more declining post-election year Augusts than positive.

 

Fundamental: Mixed. The ultimate impact of tariffs on inflation is still unclear but most recent inflation metrics have ticked higher and are still above the Fed’s stated 2% target. Q2 GDP is expected to rebound after a negative Q1. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q2 GDP has retreated to just 2.4% as of its July 18 update suggesting the rebound may not be as strong. Employment data is fair with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.1% and 147,000 net new jobs added in June. Tariff deals are getting made but deals with major trading partners like the E.U. and Canada have not been reached yet. 

 

Technical: Breaking Out. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have logged multiple new all-time highs, DJIA has not. Technical indicators are getting stretched and the market could be due for a period of consolidation or a modest pullback. If DJIA makes a decisive move higher and joins the others at new all-time highs, its momentum could keep the rally going, but the clock is running.

 

Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. The Fed meets next week and is widely expected to announce no change to its key rate on Wednesday, July 30. Political pressure is mounting along-side calls to investigate the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project at its headquarters in Washington. Outside this D.C. drama, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently shows only a 60.4% chance of a rate cut in September.

 

Sentiment: Neutral. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 51.9%. Correction advisors are at 25.9% and Bearish advisors were at 22.2% as of their July 23 release. Bullish sentiment did ease in this report from 54.7% in the prior release. Current readings suggest there is some upside potential remaining in the market however, it is likely to be far less than the magnitude of gains over the past month.

 

Despite all the excitement this past month over tariffs, trade deals, the One Big Beautiful Bill, the Fed vs. Trump, a volatile earnings season and the march to new highs, market action has been rather calm. Today marks the 21st day of a low volatility streak for the S&P 500 where the index has not gained or lost 1% or more on any day. Since the U.S. carried out a major airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, the S&P 500 is up 6.8%. But it has not had a 1% move in either direction since June 24. 

 

NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally delivered Christmas in July once again with the NASDAQ Composite gaining 3.3% over the 12-day period that includes the last 3 trading days of June and the first 9 of July. For comparison, at today’s close NASDAQ is up 3.4% for the month of July so far. As you can see in the S&P Post-Election Year Seasonal Chart below, the midyear rally tends to run a bit longer through the end of July and even into early August in the post-election year, before the usual summer retreat in August and September. 

 

 

In fact, as you can see in the chart below comparing S&P 500 and NASDAQ seasonal patterns during the Worst Four Months July-October in all years vs. post-election years, the summer setback is steeper in the post-election year. 

 

 

Should this summer rally continue through the end of July it could create what we call a “Hot July Market.” The original research on this “Hot July Market” phenomenon was by our illustrious founder and creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the late Yale Hirsch, he defined a “Hot July” market as a gain of 3% or more for the Dow.

 

Every DJIA “Hot July” since 1950 was followed by a retreat that averaged 7.0% from July’s close to a subsequent low in the second half of the year. The worst decline was 32.4% in 1987 while the mildest DJIA decline was 0.1% in 1958. Historically, “Hot Julys” have led to better Autumn buys as many of the subsequent lows occurred in September and October. 

 

Last year’s Hot July was followed by a milder and shorter correction of 5.2% from the end of July to the summer low on August 5 (from the mid-July high it was 6.1%). The Dow is currently up 1.4% for July 2025. For the Dow to be up 3% for July it would need to log a net gain over the next five trading days of 1322.85, which is about 265 points per day. Not out of the question. Should the market rally enough to drive the Dow up 3% for the month of July it would increase the likelihood of a summer correction. 

 

 

Over the last 35 years, August and September have been the worst performing months of the year. Average performance has been mixed in August with DJIA and S&P 500 recording losses of 0.9% and 0.6% respectively while NASDAQ has eked out a meager 0.1% gain. September has been red across the board for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ.

 

 

 

As noted earlier, today was the 21st trading day in a row where the S&P 500 failed to move 1% or more in either direction. The last time the market went through a similar low volatility streak ended on December 18, 2024, after 22 trading days with a loss of 2.9% on the day. Stocks struggled over the next several months, reaching a marginal new high in February before succumbing to a steep correction in early April on tariff fears. We did not take out those old highs until the end of June.

 

This low volatility streak would seem like a significant feat, especially this year. However, S&P 500 has matched or exceeded its current low volatility streak 130 previous times since 1950. The longest streak was an amazing 167 days from the end of February to late October in 1963.

 

On average, the S&P 500 did not fare well immediately after past low volatility streaks ended recording losses in the first two weeks (10 trading days) after (bright green “All” line in chart below). By one month (around 21 trading days) later S&P 500 had generally turned the corner and began its upwards march once again. On average performance remained positive 3, 6, and 12 months later.

 

Delving deeper into the data we found that the longer a historical low volatility streak persisted, generally the weaker S&P 500 was during the 3 months after the streak ended. Past streaks that lasted between 26 to 30 trading days, or longer than 40 trading days, were noticeably weaker.

 

 

When past streaks are separated by how they ended, the difference in S&P 500 performance is eye-popping. Streaks that ended with a gain were bullish while those that ended with a loss were generally bearish.

 

 

This rather orderly rise triggered our NASDAQ Best 8 Months Seasonal MACD Sell signal on July 14. Solid gains were logged in our QQQ and IWM positions from our reentry on April 17 after getting stopped out in the early-April tariff tumble. Over the roughly 3-month period our QQQ position was up 28.3% and IWM gained 22.1%. 

 

The weakest two months of the are around the corner and the market seems primed to take a breather. Whatever your politics are, you must admit the Trump administration has logged a series of wins on the geopolitical front, with tariff and trade deals and getting legislation through congress. So that begs the question, what’s next? We do not expect any major decline over the next few months, but we suspect a dearth of news from the White House and Wall Street will coincide with the usual seasonal slump. 

 

The market is somewhat overbought and appears to be running out of gas as the uptrend has been flattening out over the past few weeks. This is the time of the year many market participants, institutional and retail, tend to step away from the market and shore up positions, creating a trading vacuum that often results in a market slide. When they come back in September there is often a push to restructure portfolios and do some window dressing, especially at large institutions, that creates more selling pressure toward the end of Q3. So, enjoy your summer and keep your powder dry, we are likely to get a better buying opportunity over the next few months. 

 

 

DJIA did make a decisive move higher joining NASDAQ’s midyear rally. DJIA’s 50-day moving average also climbed back above its 200-day moving average on July 15 forming a traditionally bullish golden cross. However, DJIA has yet to close at a new all-time high. DJIA came within 3.75 points on July 23 (1). Should DJIA fail to break out soon, the summer rally could soon falter as historically weak August (and September) will be arriving soon.

 

Despite DJIA gains earlier this week, both the slower and faster MACD indicators are negative (2). Both turned negative around mid-July and only modestly improved earlier this week. Weakening technical indicators are also suggesting the wait for new all-time closing highs for DJIA could continue.

 

 

DJIA logged its fourth Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) of the year (3). Historically, DF/DM occurrences have been market inflection points (page 78 of 2025 Almanac) that have frequently been followed by weakness sometime during the next 90 calendar days. It is not uncommon for DJIA to bounce higher immediately after a DF/DM, like it did earlier this week, but the bounce has tended to be of brief duration. At a minimum it would appear traders’ market conviction may be waning even though S&P 500 (4) and NASDAQ (5) have repeatedly closed at new all-time highs in July. 

 

Weekly market breadth (6) favored Decliners last week, ending July 18, even as S&P 500 and NASDAQ both logged a weekly gain. Historically mixed readings like this have occurred due to sector rotation and/or waning participation in the rally. If participation is faltering the rally could be coming to an end. However, if Weekly Advancers can reclaim the majority and the indexes hold onto weekly gains, this week, it would be less of a concern.

 

Weekly New 52-week Highs (7) have retreated from their 2025 peak of 267 in early July while New 52-week Lows have increased. With S&P 500 and NASDAQ setting new all-time closing highs, we would expect Weekly New 52-week Highs to be increasing, not falling. This is another sign that participation in the rally is likely eroding. Should this trend persist, it would not be out of the question for the market to also begin to soften and consolidate and/or pullback.  

 

The 30-year Treasury bond yield reached 5% again (8). Recently this has been a level that has pressured stocks, and it is a level to keep an eye on. Thus far this week the 30-year bond yield has modestly retreated back below 5%. Any brisk move back above 5% could be a catalyst for some market weakness.

 

 

[Editor’s note: You are receiving the August Almanac email Issue early in order to move the August Outlook Issue to next Thursday and then have the members’ only webinar on Wednesday, July 30. A registration link for the webinar will be included in next week’s issue, after the market’s close on July 24.]

 

Agriculture and farming made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best DJIA month from 1901 to 1951. (See page 42 of the 2025 Almanac comparing the seasonal patterns of DJIA before and after 1950.) Now it is the worst DJIA and Russell 2000 and second worst S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 month over the last 37 years, 1988-2024 with average performance ranging from +0.1% by NASDAQ to a –0.8% loss by DJIA. In 2022, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 all declined over 4% in August and in 2023 they declined 1.8% or more. 

 

Contributing to this poor performance since 1988; the second shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998, with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Sizeable losses in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2022 of over 4% by DJIA have widened its August average decline.

 

 

In post-election years, Augusts’ rankings are little changed, but performance has been negative across the board. August is the worst month in post-election years for DJIA and Russell 1000 and second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Average declines in post-election year Augusts range from –0.5% by Russell 2000 to –1.5% by DJIA. Each index has also seen more declining post-election year Augusts than positive.

 

 

Historically, the first eight or nine trading days of the month have exhibited weakness while mid- and late month has been somewhat better. In post-election years, August has opened with strength, accumulating gains on average over the first and second trading days before reversing and sinking until shortly after mid-month. At which point, a bounce of varying magnitude and duration occurred before the major indexes slipped into a choppy/sideways trading path to close out the month

 

On Monday of monthly options expiration DJIA has been up 19 of the last 30 years with four days up more than 1%. Monthly expiration Friday has improved recently, up 14 of the last 22 years and up 6 of the last 7. In monthly expiration week, DJIA is down 21 times in 35 years since 1990, with some sizable losses; –2.6% in 1990, –2.3% in 1992, –4.2% in 1997, –4.0% in 2011, –2.2% in 2013, –5.8% in 2015, and –2.2% in 2023. The week after expiration has been stronger, DJIA up 21 of the last 34.

 

 

 

As of today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator applied to NASDAQ is negative. At the start of trading today, following Friday’s loss, NASDAQ needed to gain more than 73.41 points (+0.36%) today to keep its MACD positive. Today’s gain was not enough. NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” has come to an end. We are now issuing our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for NASDAQ.

 

 

 

Sell Invesco QQQ (QQQ). 

 

Sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM).

 

For tracking purposes, these positions will be closed out of the Tactical Switching Strategy ETF Portfolio using their respective average prices on Tuesday, July 15.

 

Existing positions in TLT, AGG and BND on are Hold. Cash, money market, and/or short-duration bond ETFs like SHV and SGOV are likely to be the least risky during the “Worst Months” this year. SHV and SGOV can be considered on dips below their respective buy limits.

 

As a reminder, traders/investors following the Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle switching strategy detailed on page 64 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025 should heed this Seasonal Sell signal and consider moving into suggested bond ETFs above or similar cash and cash equivalents.

 

 

 

 

As of the close today, July 10, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator was positive. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. It would currently take a one-trading-day NASDAQ decline of 111.73 points (–0.54%) for NASDAQ’s MACD indicator to turn negative. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to some existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio at that time.

 

 

With the home stretch of NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally quickly approaching, it has already exceeded its typical average gain of 2.5% since 1985, up 3.3% as of today’s close. Officially the rally ends on the 9th trading day of the month, July 14, this year. However, the recent 21-year seasonal pattern suggests it could run a bit longer until around monthly options expiration on July 18.

 

 

It is the latter days of July where the market can and historically has run into some weakness. This year we have been hearing a fair amount of discussion about a mid-July market peak followed by the elevated potential for a market retreat sometime during August, September, and perhaps into early October. To gain a better perspective on the potential magnitude of a summer market retreat we compiled two sets of data. In the following chart we present the average historical declines for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. 

 

 

Using each indexes respective July high close to its subsequent low close anytime during August, September, or October we found that DJIA and S&P 500 declined an average of 7.9%. NASDAQ declined a larger 10.7% on average. Of the 75 years of data examined for DJIA and S&P 500, there were 18 years each where the decline exceeded 10%. DJIA had two years (1950 & 1984) that did not have any decline while S&P 500 had three years (1950, 1958, & 1984). In 54 years, NASDAQ had 22 declines in excess of 10% and zero years without a decline.

 

Next, we looked for the maximum drawdown during the months July through October. Sometimes the drawdown did begin in July, but it could also begin in August, September or even October. Maximum drawdowns were larger on average with DJIA and S&P 500 declining 9.4% while NASDAQ declined 12.6%. Drawdowns exceeding 10% occurred in 23 years for DJIA, 25 for S&P 500 and 26 for NASDAQ. The average start date of the drawdowns was between August 8 to August 13 with NASDAQ being first and S&P 500 last. The drawdown typically lasted until around September 23 or 24.

 

The market still has some room to run ahead of this historically weak period. When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative, we will review market conditions and make any necessary adjustments in the portfolios.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on July 9, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio advanced just 0.3%, excluding dividends, compared to a 4.0% advance by S&P 500 and a 4.9% gain by Russell 2000. Overall performance is still limited by the sizable cash balance in the portfolio. However, each market-cap slice of the portfolio was positive reflecting the broad strength exhibited by the market. Our Large Caps were the best advancing 2.5%, followed by the lone Small Cap which gained 2.0%. Lastly, Mid-Caps advanced an average of 0.4%.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $1. When first presented back on December 12, 2024, HWAIF was a highly speculative trade and it remains so today. Management has made some solid progress by closing deals and expanding their market. HWAIF did enjoy a brief rally in late June that fizzled out in early July. We suspect that rally may have been a preview of what is likely to transpire as HWAIF continues its work toward profitability.

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is on Hold. With Nvidia reaching new all-time highs and becoming the first company to exceed a $4 trillion market cap, SMCI has climbed back above $50 per share. Demand appears to be rising for SMCI’s products as it plans to expand production in Europe and in Asia. SMCI does have close ties with Nvidia, but it also has a storied history. We have taken profits twice, fully recovering the initial investment and more. Taking this into consideration, we are willing to wait and see if SMCI’s relationship with Nvidia can push it back toward all-time highs.

 

Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD) is on Hold. Shares of SKWD have been in retreat since topping $65 in early June. Quarterly results released in May were better than expected, which triggered numerous analysts to bump up their price targets. As long as shares can hold support around their stop loss of $50.65, we suspect that SKWD may beat estimates again when it releases its next earnings report in August.

 

Emcor Group (EME) is on Hold. After briefly pausing during late-May into early June, shares of EME closed out June with a decisive move higher that culminated with new 52-week and all-time highs earlier this week. EME appears to be consolidating those gains now. Earnings are anticipated later this month and could serve as the next catalyst to continue higher.

 

All other positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent market moves.

 

 

 

In case you missed the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, July 2, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar Jeff reviewed key seasonal pattern charts that we have been tracking throughout the year, current GDP and inflation trends, Fed interest rate expectations, and the status of NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator which has NOT triggered yet. More detail on the current status of the signal is below.

 

In addition, Jeff also reviewed the history of the S&P 500 following a positive Q2 after a negative Q1. The historical results were somewhat mixed but potentially more encouraging was when S&P 500 gained 10% or more in Q2 after a down Q1 like it did this year. In the past five occurrences (1968, 1980, 2003, 2009, 2020), since 1950, S&P 500 always advanced in Q3, Q4, the second half of the year, and the full year. The data and tables can be viewed on slide 6 of the webinar’s deck.

 

Due to lingering tariff uncertainty, mixed economic data, and geopolitical concerns, our 2025 Forecast odds are still 50/50 between our Base and Worst case scenarios. Should the current rally and breakout to new highs by S&P 500 and NASDAQ pull DJIA to new record highs and fundamentals show some modest improvement, the odds of our Base case scenario playing out would likely improve. Until then, continue to ride the midyear rally, likely until around mid-July, and then remain on the lookout for a possible pullback sometime in typically weak August and September.

 

 

As of the close today, July 3, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator was positive. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. It would currently take a one-trading-day NASDAQ decline of 564.81 points (–2.74%) for NASDAQ’s MACD indicator to turn negative. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD registers a new negative crossover, we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to existing bond ETF and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio and will also consider adding additional positions in the stock portfolio.

 

 

Three new sector seasonalities begin in the month of July. Bearish seasonalities for Industrials and Transports have historically begun around mid-July and lasted until the first two thirds of October. Technically, both sectors currently look strong with corresponding strength in iShares DJ Transports (IYT) and SPDR Industrials (XLI). At this time, we are going to pass on trading these bearish seasonalities. However, should they begin to falter, we may consider a trade then.

 

July’s final new seasonality is for gold & silver mining stocks. This seasonality is based upon strength in the Philadelphia Gold & Silver index that typically begins in late July and lasts until late December. Over the past 10 years this trade has struggled, but more recently in the last 5 years it has averaged 9.99%. With ballooning Federal debt and deficits, a weakening U.S. dollar, and Fed interest rate cuts still on the table for later this year, gold, silver and the stocks that mine and produce them could easily extend their recent bullish streaks. We will take a two-pronged approach by considering the miners and the metals.

 

VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) is our preferred ETF to take advantage of seasonal strength in gold and silver miners. As of the close on July 2, GDX had over $15 billion in assets with a gross expense ratio of 0.51%. Top five holdings of GDX include: Newmont, Agnico Eagle Mines, Wheaton Precious Metals, Barrick Gold, and Franco-Nevada.

 

 

Year-to-date, GDX is up over 50%. It appears to have spent the last month consolidating those gains. GDX was modestly higher today and its Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators are improving and trending in positive directions. GDX can be considered on dips below $52.50. If purchased, set an initial stop loss at $46.33 and an auto sell at $62.85.

 

 

Next, we will also look to establish a position in SPDR Gold (GLD). Unlike the miners, physical gold was lower today. Since surging to new all-time highs in mid-April, GLD has also been consolidating. Stochastic, relative strength, and MACD indicators were set back today but still appear to be trending favorably higher, suggesting some new attention as tariff deadlines loom. GLD can be considered on dips below $307.10. If purchased, consider a stop loss at $275.00. There is no auto-sell price at this time.

 

 

VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) is the small-cap version of GDX. The holdings of GDXJ are generally smaller market cap and early-stage miners. GDXJ has over $5.5 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 0.51%. Top five holdings are: Alamos Gold, Pan American Silver, Harmony Gold Mining, B2gold, and Evolution Mining. GDXJ can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $68.20. If purchased, set an initial stop loss at $60.19 and an auto sell at $81.64.

 

 

Lastly, we will consider a position in iShares Silver (SLV). Unlike its “big brother” gold, silver has not traded at a new all-time high and is trading near a historical discount to gold. SLV did post a solid gain in June, and its technical indicators have softened since momentum eased, but early signs of improvement exist with Stochastic and relative strength improving recently. SLV can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $32.50. If purchased a stop loss at $29.70 is suggested.

 

 

Five sector seasonalities come to an end in July but there are no associated positions currently held in the Sector Rotation ETF portfolio. A complete rundown can be found on page 94 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac and a quick list is available at the top of the July 2025 Strategy Calendar.

 

“Worst Months” defensive positions in SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) and SPDR Utilities (XLU) can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. XLP and XLU have respectable track records for providing modest average gains from May through October along with a fair dividend yield.

 

 

FXE, FXF, and FXY can also still be considered on dips. Aside from a few failed rally attempts, the U.S. dollar index has been in retreat since mid-January. Support around 100 has been broken. Tariff uncertainty and mixed fundamental data are likely responsible for its decline. As the U.S. dollar weakens, FXE, FXF, and FXY are likely to continue to benefit.

 

Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) is another weak(er) U.S. dollar trade. As the U.S. dollar weakens, it can make U.S. agricultural products more affordable to foreign buyers which in turn can result in higher demand and potentially higher prices. DBA was added to the portfolio on June 10 and can still be considered on dips below its buy limit.

 

As noted in this week’s member’s webinar, we are going to cancel the trade in iShares Bitcoin (IBIT). Unfortunately, we missed its race back to all-time highs and now Bitcoin’s momentum appears to be fading. We will await a better opportunity to trade IBIT later this year, likely in September or October.

 

All four of last month’s new foreign market-based ETFs have been added to the portfolio. IDV, EFAV, EFV, and EZU are all fractionally higher and can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. Again again, tariffs and US market volatility were the driving factors for seeking out foreign market exposure.

 

 

 

Continue to Hold QQQ and IWM. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal has NOT triggered.

 

Defensive positions in bond ETFs, TLT, AGG, BND, SHV and SGOV, are still flat to modestly negative. TLT, AGG and BND are on Hold. The performance of TLT, AGG and BND will likely depend greatly upon the timing of Fed rate cuts, which is not likely until later this year. Our preferred bond ETFs are SHV and SGOV as both exhibit relatively stable pricing and have yields exceeding 4%. We will consider adding to SHV and SGOV positions when NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal triggers, but they can be considered at current levels up to their respective buy limits.