Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, September 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday September 3, 2025, at 4:00 PM EDT here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5336623071564496731  

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for September 2025, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, tariffs, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

 

8/28/2025: Dow 45636.90 | S&P 6501.86 | NASDAQ 21705.16 | Russell 2K 2378.41 | NYSE 21165.05 | Value Line Arith 12014.25

 

Seasonal: Bearish. September is the worst month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000. Average monthly declines range from –0.7% for S&P 500 to –0.9% by NASDAQ and Russell 1000. In post-election years, September’s ranking improves slightly, but average losses prevail. DJIA and S&P 500 have declined in 10 of the last 18 post-election year Septembers.

 

Fundamental: Mixed. Inflation metrics continue to tick higher and are still above the Fed’s stated 2% target. Q2 GDP was revised higher to a 3.3% annualized pace but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q3 GDP has slipped down to 2.2% as of its August 26, 2025, update suggesting US economic activity is slowing. Employment data has softened modestly with monthly job gains slowing yet the unemployment rate is still 4.2%. AI investment persists, supporting more than just the tech sector, for now. 

 

Technical: Broken Out. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have logged new all-time closing highs. Russell 2000 is outperforming in August but still has not closed at a new all-time high. Technical indicators are getting stretched and the market could be set up for a period of consolidation or a modest pullback which is something it has not done since the early April lows.

 

Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. It would appear that the groundwork for the next Fed rate cut has been put in place. Or has it? The CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently shows an 87.1% chance of a September interest rate cut which leaves a 12.9% chance of nothing changing. The Fed has resisted political pressure thus far and it would seem caving in now, with inflation metrics on the rise, would put its credibility at even greater risk than taking no action. Perhaps there is middle ground with a small 0.25% reduction in interest rates. Mark the calendar, as the next Fed announcement on September 17 could prove to be a pivotal one for the Fed, the market, and the US economy.

 

Sentiment: Cautious. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 51.0%. Correction advisors are at 31.4% and Bearish advisors were at 17.6% as of their August 27 release. With the spread between the number of bulls and bears expanding above 30, advisor sentiment has inched into the early stages of the caution zone. Overall sentiment suggests chasing the market now is not the best approach. There will likely be another pullback that could provide a more opportune time to establish new long positions.

 

Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 movie masterpiece, Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb, keeps coming to mind. Not the plot or storyline but the subtitle. To quip: Bearish Seasonality or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bull. Our 2025 forecast from the outset was rather bullish. Seasonally weak August logging a 2.6% gain for the S&P with one trading day left, 2025 tracking the upper end of our seasonal and 4-year election cycle patterns and the list of market risks growing thin puts our best case 2025 forecast scenario of 12-20% firmly in play.

 

We are also reminded of the wise words of the late Edson Gould: “If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods, it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say.” Conversely when bearish seasonality doesn’t transpire it is a bullish indication that more powerful forces are at play. Despite the tariff tumult earlier this year the AI Super Boom has proven to be quite powerful as evidenced by the resilient recent economic growth and employment numbers as well as the face-ripping rally since April.

 

Remember what we wrote in the 2025 Outlook, on pages 10-11 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac, and in the Best-Case Scenario in our 2025 Forecast last December. Post-election years are the best year of the 4-year cycle since 1985. S&P averages a gain of 18.1% in post-election years since 1985, up 9, down 1 (2001). So, with all the bullish market action over the past four months and the market continuing to log new all-time highs (except for Russell 2000 though its on the move lately) we have added post-election years since 1985 to our updated S&P 500 Post-Election Seasonal Chart Below. 

 

 

You can see how 2025 has started to track the post-election years since 1985 pattern. All these patterns are at or near their annual highs at the end of December, exhibit a Q4 rally and show a minor pullback in the August-October timeframe of about 1-5%. With the AI Super Boom in full force, we could easily see a stronger than average yearend rally that pushes S&P 500 up to 20% or more for the year in line with our best-case scenario. 

 

However, there is still the potential for a September/October surprise pullback. But considering all the bullish indications and momentum and the robust macro backdrop it would require some unexpected catalyst to trigger even a mild selloff. 

 

The most obvious thing to us would be if the Fed does not cut interest rates at the September meeting. Q2 GDP being revised up to 3.3% today, weekly jobless claims falling and core inflation on the rise might provide cover for the Fed to rebuff the White House’s demands to lower rates. PCE tomorrow and Unemployment, PPI and CPI in early September should provide more clarity. The rise in the 30-Year Treasury and some AI Tech miss or surprise like Deep Seek back in January are also potential catalysts for a pullback.

 

 

With one day left in August S&P is up 2.6% month-to-date. Save a big bearish surprise tomorrow, this will make it four months in row of solid gains. Considering August’s notorious seasonal weakness history and July’s outperformance we tabulated all the years since 1949 when S&P was up more than 2% for each month. Of the previous eleven occurrences S&P was down eight times with an average loss of -1.0% in September and October was down seven of eleven times with an average loss of -2.9%. However, there are some notable selloffs in 1978, 1987, 2018, 2020 and 2021. 

 

 

September has been the worst month of the year. And in post-election years DJIA and S&P 500 have declined in 10 of the last 18 Septembers. And then there’s Octoberphobia. So, with the history of volatility toward the end of Q3 and into October there is the potential for some late summer/early fall selloff. We did experience the usual post-election year Q1 weakness a little later with the tariff tumble low in April, so perhaps the usual Q3 seasonal weakness with arrive a tad later. In any event we expect any pullback to be short-lived and shallow and we reaffirm that our 2025 Best-Case Scenario of 12-20% full-year gains is firmly in play.

 

 

It took DJIA over eight months, and some help from Fed Chair Powell, but it finally broke out to a new all-time closing high (1) on August 25, 2025, and again today. DJIA’s old all-time closing high was set on December 4, 2024. Whether or not this signals the “all-clear” ahead remains to be seen with DJIA doing some consolidating earlier this week. DJIA is on course to finish historically tepid August with a respectable gain, but September has also been a challenging month.

 

DJIA’s gains over the last three weeks have turned both the faster and slower moving MACDs positive (2). However, the faster moving MACD Buy appears to be responding to the slowing in DJIA’s upward momentum this week and is trending back toward a sell signal crossover. Successive new all-time closing highs will be needed to stave off any MACD sell crossovers. This is something DJIA has struggled with.

 

 

If DJIA can finish this week with a gain, it will be the fourth straight week (3) and a feat it has not accomplished since last October. S&P 500 (4) is also on the same path to four weekly gains in a row which has also not been achieved since last October. NASDAQ’s decline (5) during the week ending August 22, negated its attempt. Historically, weekly winning streaks have all ended. The current streak by DJIA and SP 500 will also end. We suspect any subsequent weakness will be brief as the market has proven resilient this year. 

 

Weekly market breadth over the last three weeks (6) has been solidly bullish with Weekly Advancers outnumbering Weekly Decliners by around 2-to-1 or better. With Russell 2000 up over 7% already in August, small-cap gains are likely enhancing the positive weekly breadth numbers. Small-cap outperformance ahead of and around Labor Day is visible on page 114 of the 2025 Almanac. But the small-cap advantage has tended to fade around mid-September.

 

One potential area of concern is the lack of New 52-week Highs (7). Despite recent strength and new all-time closing highs, New 52-week Highs have not eclipsed their 2025 peak of 273 set in the final full week of trading in July. Yes, the major indexes could continue to slowly grind higher but participation in the rally appears to be waning. Absent a breakout in New 52-week Highs, a pullback and/or consolidation is not out of the question.

 

The 30-year Treasury bond yield did pullback from 5% but that pullback could be over as it has begun slowly trending higher over the last two weeks (8). We still view 5% as a key level for the 30-year bond. Any brisk move above that level could test the stock market’s resiliency.

 

 

In case you missed the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar we reviewed key seasonal pattern charts that we have been tracking throughout the year, current GDP and inflation trends, Fed interest rate expectations, and what we expect during the balance of the “Worst Months” which include historically weak August and September. We also provided an update to S&P 500’s current low volatility streak noting that how it ends could have an important impact on the subsequent direction of the market.

 

 

In the original research conducted by our illustrious founder and creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the late Yale Hirsch, defined a “Hot July” market as a gain of 3% or more for the DJIA. Although DJIA did not reach this level, up just 0.08% this July, NASDAQ did. With the lone exception of 1980, every NASDAQ “Hot July” since 1971 was followed by a retreat that averaged 5.8% from July’s close to a subsequent low in the second half of the year. The worst decline was 18.4% in 1973 and the second worst was in 2022 when NASDAQ retreated a further 17.6% before its bear market finally ended in December. 

 

What really stands out in the following table is NASDAQ’s average retreat after a 3% or greater gain in July is heavily influenced by four double-digit declines while in other years the retreat was actually rather mild. The mild NASDAQ retreats were frequently over quickly with eight bottoming/ending in August.

 

 

This does appear to align with our expectations for a relatively mild pullback or consolidation, most likely sometime during the next two or three months. Tariff uncertainty is easing as deals are getting done but more deals are still needed. The longer-term impact of tariffs is still unclear. Today’s slightly warmer than anticipated PCE reading (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) following a larger than expected increase in CPI earlier in July, suggests that price increases due to tariffs may just slowly bleed into prices instead of a single or quick jump higher. If this is the case, then Fed rate cuts are likely to be pushed back as well. 

 

As noted in our August Almanac and Outlook over the past two weeks and on yesterday’s webinar, notoriously weak August is historically weaker in post-election years. However, with the market tracking the more bullish post-election year seasonal patterns after straying off course earlier this year, we suspect only a modest pullback likely in the 5-8% range during the balance of the “Worst Months.”

 

 

Two new bullish sector trades begin in August, but we are going to take a guarded approach. New long trade ideas are suggested on dips. If they do not dip below their respective buy limits, that is fine as we can consider them again when the “Worst Months” end.

 

The biotechnology sector enters its historical favorable season in August. iShares Biotech (IBB) can be considered on dips below its buy limit of $128.75. A stop at $113.62 is suggested. The auto-sell price is $169.89 based upon historical average performance plus an additional 10%. A 19.96% average gain has occurred over the last 25 years while an average gain of 4.85% has occurred in the most recent 5 years (page 94 STA 2025) from the beginning of August through the beginning of March. Top five holdings are: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Amgen, Gilead Sciences, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.

 

 

A second choice to consider for biotechnology seasonal strength is SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI). Unlike IBB, XBI tends to hold more speculative stocks with smaller market caps and its holdings are not as concentrated. XBI could be considered on dips below $84.20. If purchased set an initial stop loss at $74.31 and an auto-sell at $111.11. Top five holdings are: Moderna, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Incyte, Halozyme Biosciences, and Insmed.

 

 

Over the last 25 years, Info-Tech has generated an average return of 10.73%, and for the last five years the average has been a solid 13.77% during its bullish season from mid-August to mid-January. Our top ETF within this sector is iShares US Technology (IYW). Set a buy limit at $176.15 and an initial stop loss of $155.45 if purchased. Should high-tech produce above average gains, profits can be taken at the auto-sell price of $214.56. IYW’s top five holdings are: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, and Meta. These five holdings represent a whopping 53.8% of IYW’s total holdings. 

 

 

August’s final seasonality is a short trade in the Semiconductor sector. We are officially going to pass on this setup. The sector is getting hit today, but the downside is likely to be brief and limited making the risk/reward less appealing.

 

 

Oil’s bearish seasonality comes to an end in August. We officially passed on trading this setup in early June due to crude oil’s resiliency and geopolitical risk that could potentially cause energy to spike higher. There is no corresponding position in the portfolio.

 

“Worst Months” defensive position in SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) can still be considered on dips below its respective buy limit. If the broader market does take a breather, XLP could see renewed buying.

 

SPDR Utilities (XLU) is on Hold. As of its close on July 30, XLU was up 14.0% and climbing closer to its auto-sell price of $88.93. AI and data center electricity demand has lifted XLU this year to above average gains.

 

FXE and FXF are on Hold. The US dollar has improved this week and reclaimed its 50-day moving average. It is currently close to breaking back above 100, a key level that was support during its retreat and could ultimately be resistance to additional gains. The rebound in the US dollar has come at the expense of other currencies weakening. Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY) was stopped out on July 30.

 

European ETFs, IDV, EFAV, EFV, and EZU are mixed and can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. All four of these offer reasonable dividend yields and potentially some diversification benefits.

 

Last month’s trades in gold and silver related ETFs, GLD, SLV, GDX, and GDXJ have retreated modestly as the US dollar has strengthened and interest rate cuts from the Fed keep getting pushed further away. GLD, SLV, GDX, and GDXJ can all still be considered at current levels or on dips below their respective buy limits.

 

 

 

In accordance with the July 14, NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell email Issue, QQQ and IWM have been closed out of the portfolio for gains of 31.0% and 21.2% respectively. As of today’s close, QQQ is just 1% higher than when it was closed out while IWM is actually lower.

 

Defensive positions in bond ETFs, TLT, AGG, BND, SHV and SGOV, are still flat to modestly negative. TLT, AGG and BND are on Hold. The performance of TLT, AGG and BND will likely depend greatly upon the timing of Fed rate cuts, which is not likely until later this year. Our preferred bond ETFs are SHV and SGOV as both exhibit relatively stable pricing and have yields exceeding 4%.

 

 

 

Typical seasonal weakness and associated volatility have arrived right on cue. Blame tariff uncertainty, the weak jobs report last Friday, geopolitics, elevated valuations, or whatever. There has been no lack of chatter about historically weak August and September this year and it seems that it may become self-fulfilling. After sinking on the first trading day of August, the market has rebounded but the bullish momentum it has exhibited since the April lows has faded.

 

 

Whether looking at the recent 21-year seasonal pattern, post-election years since 1950, or the above 35-year pattern, August has just been a meager month with a weak trend. The market’s rebound earlier this week is consistent with past post-election year early month strength, but it will likely struggle to produce and maintain across-the-board new all-time index highs. Based upon historical August patterns, more volatility is likely the path of least resistance for the market. And even if the market does shrug off historically weak August, even weaker September looms.

 

However, we still expect only a modest market pullback in the near-term of around 5-8%. Tariff deals are being ironed out or exemptions are being put in place to smooth over the most potentially painful ones. Tax cuts and deregulation are also likely to limit any market retreat while inflation is reasonably subdued and Fed interest rate cut probabilities are rising.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on August 6, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio was essentially unchanged, off – 0.01%, excluding dividends and any potential interest on the cash position, compared to a 1.3% advance by S&P 500 and a 1.4% decline from Russell 2000. Across the portfolio, the single small-cap stock was unchanged, mid-caps slipped 1.9% lower, while large-caps advanced 2.0% on average.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $1. Shares of HWAIF have settled into a relatively wide trading range centered approximately around its current price of $1.02. We suspect management is taking a cautious approach by placing more emphasis on the healthcare aspects of its business rather than its use and development of AI. With the broader healthcare sector struggling, it’s not all that surprising to see HWAIF in a rut as well. If its second quarter earnings do not disappoint on August 13, the upper bounds of the range could be broken.

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) can be considered near current levels with a buy limit of $47.00. Nvidia’s recent resurgence did translate into a respectable move higher by SMCI. However, SMCI failed to meet expectations earlier this week, missing both revenue and earnings estimates in its fiscal Q4. Management’s guidance was also somewhat disappointing as it forecast below expectation revenue and earnings numbers for the current quarter, but above expectations revenue for full fiscal year 2026. SMCI was down nearly 20% on the day. It appears more volatility is likely in the near-term for SMCI, but its longer-term prospects appear to be more favorable.

 

Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is on hold. LOPE reported better than expected Q2 revenue and earnings just after the market close on August 6. Shares responded nicely today briefly topping $200.00, but broader market weakness appears to be weighing on today’s gains.

 

Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD) was stopped out on July 31 for just a 4% gain when it closed below $50.65. SKWD did modestly beat earnings expectations, but revenues were less than forecast. SKWD is still trading below its stop price and appears to still be searching for a bottom. 

 

Emcor Group (EME) is on Hold. Ahead of its earnings release, EME did enjoy a brisk rally to new 52-week highs and all-time highs. Earnings did not disappoint, but it does appear they were an opportunity to lock in some profits as EME has since retreated. Broad market chop is likely also contributing to some of EME’s modest pullback. 

 

All other positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent market moves.

 

 

 

In September and October, Jeff will be busy with presentations and events on both coasts. If you happen to be in the area or nearby, here is an opportunity to meet Jeff in person.

 

Friday, September 5th, 2025

Golden Gate University, San Francisco, CA

In-Person & Virtual (Via Zoom) Find out more and register here: https://www.tsaasf.org/

 

September 7-10, Huntington Beach, CA

Stop by and see me at the Wiley booth and check out the hot-off-the-press 2026 Almanac!

 

5,000+ attendees. Two iconic bands.

 

Future Proof Festival is where the wealth management community comes together - alongside live performances from Bush and Blues Traveler, plus content from 100+ speakers, 80% of whom are C-level leaders.

 

- 50,000+ Breakthru Meetings

- Immersive brand activations

- 98 Breakthru Experiences

- A four-day outdoor experience built for connection and momentum

 

Don’t miss your chance to be part of it: https://futureproofhq.com/festival/registration/

 

October 16-18, Orlando, FL

Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate

 

Meet Jeff in Orlando at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando where 100+ experts will join him to educate over 1,000 investors and traders. He will give you his personal important portfolio decisions for Q4 and 2026 midterm year ahead.

 

Here are the sessions he’ll be taking part in:

Friday, October 17, 2025, at 12:55 pm - 1:25 pm EDT

October: The Best Time to Buy Stocks

 

Saturday, October 18, 2025, at 11:15 am - 12:00 pm EDT

Riding the Q4 Wave: Timely Strategies for Profits in the Strongest Quarter of the Cycle

 

Saturday, October 18, 2025, at 1:45 pm - 2:30 pm EDT

10 Hot Sectors and Stocks for Your “Take Home” List Panel

 

Learn more and register here: https://orlando.moneyshow.com/?scode=065788

 

 

Fueled by the weaker than expected July employment report and a July CPI (consumer inflation index) reading that was essentially in line with expectations, S&P 500 has defied typical seasonal weakness, so far, in the first half of August and closed at multiple new all-time highs. At S&P 500’s high close today, August 14, it was up 9.98% year-to-date, exceeding every post-election year seasonal pattern we have been tracking this year at mid-August levels and full-year performance of all but our STA Aggregate Cycle.

 

 

However, today’s PPI (producer price index) report was not as sanguine, coming in with a 0.9% month-over-month increase compared to expectations of around 0.2%. Over the last 12 months, the index has increased 3.3%, well above the Fed’s stated 2% target. It would appear there are more price increases in the pipeline that are likely to show up, at some point, in consumer prices.

 

 

Above is a chart of the 6-month exponential moving average (EMA) of the monthly year-over-year change in CPI and PPI. If this chart looks familiar, it is. We have been using it in our annual forecasts over the years. We choose a 6-month EMA as it tends to work well at smoothing out monthly volatility in CPI and PPI while better capturing the underlying trend of each. The PPI used in this chart is not the same as the one making headlines today. The PPI Final Demand index only goes back to November 2009. The PPI we plotted has data available back to 1917 and saw a similarly large monthly increase.

 

Note the clear relationship between PPI and CPI in the chart. PPI generally leads CPI higher and lower with peaks and troughs usually occurring within a few months of each other. This relationship does persist back to 1917 as well, but we started in 1949 to create a reasonably sized chart with adequate resolution for the more recent timeframe. Focusing on the last couple of years of data, PPI bottomed in February 2024 and has been trending higher while CPI has continued its trend modestly lower. It seems reasonable that if PPI continues to climb, CPI will also do the same. 

 

Surprisingly, expectations for a September Fed interest rate cut are essentially unchanged as this is being written. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds are 92.6% today versus 94.3% yesterday, August 13. It would seem nearly certain the Fed will be cutting its key interest rate in September or perhaps the market is overly optimistic. Afterall there will be another CPI (September 11) and PPI (September 10) release before the Fed’s next meeting along with the August employment situation (September 5) report. Potentially of even greater importance will be PCE (personal income and outlays) on August 29. If inflation fails to ease in any of these upcoming reports, the odds of a September cut are likely going to retreat.

 

In addition to inflation data that looks like it is turning and beginning to head in the wrong direction, economic growth also offers little support for a Fed interest rate cut in September. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, is forecasting Q3 GDP of 2.5% as of its August 7 update. There is another update due on Friday, August 15 that could impact Fed rate cut expectations. Anything that reduces the likelihood of a cut in September could also result in a typical seasonal retreat by the market. Typical post-election year Q1 weakness began a few weeks later than usual in the second half of February. Perhaps Q3 weakness will also be tardy. Should this be the case, we still suspect it will be a mild pullback that will likely clear the path for a Q4 rally.

 

Portfolio managers back after Labor Day have tended to clean house in September. Since 1950, September has been the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com madness. More recently, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have been down seven of the last eleven Septembers and four of the last five. Average losses over the last eleven years range from –1.2% by DJIA to –2.4% from NASDAQ and Russell 2000.

 

In post-election years, September’s overall rank improves modestly in post-election years going back to 1953 (third or fourth worst month depending on index). Average losses are little changed. Although September 2001 does influence the average declines, the fact remains DJIA and S&P 500 have declined in 10 of the last 18 post-election year Septembers. Russell 2000 has the best post-election year record, up seven times in 11 post-election years.

 

 

Although the S&P 500 has advanced 18 times over the last 30 years on September’s first trading day, strength has faded more recently with average performance over the last 21 years turning negative. With fund managers tending to sell underperforming positions ahead of the end of the third quarter there have been some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. Recent substantial full-month declines occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (DJIA: –11.1%), 2002 (DJIA –12.4%), the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (DJIA: –6.0%), U.S. debt ceiling debacle in 2011 (DJIA –6.0%) and during the post-covid bear market in 2022 (DJIA –8.8%).

 

 

September Triple Witching week has been generally bullish with S&P 500 advancing three times for every two declines since 1990, but it has suffered some sizable losses, and weekly performance has deteriorated noticeably since 2018 with NASDAQ declining in six of the last seven. Triple-Witching Friday was essentially a sure bet for the bulls from 2004 to 2011 but has been a loser nine, ten, or eleven of the last thirteen years, depending on index with S&P 500 weakest, down 12 of the last 13. The week after Triple Witching has been brutal, S&P 500 down 27 of the last 35, averaging a loss of 1.05%. In 2022, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all dropped 4% or more.

 

Labor Day has become the unofficial end of summer, and the three-day weekend is prime vacation time for many. Business activity ahead of the holiday was more energetic in the old days. From 1950 through 1977 the three days before Labor Day pushed the DJIA higher in twenty-five of twenty-eight years. Bullishness has since shifted to favor the Wednesday after the holiday as opposed to the days before. DJIA has advanced on 22 of the last 30 Wednesdays following Labor Day. Tuesday after Labor Day also leaned bullish, but DJIA has declined 12 of the last 15 (down the last 8 straight).