Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, October 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday October 1, 2025, at 4:00 PM EDT here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8421487661839307358 

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for October 2025 and beyond, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, tariffs, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

 

9/25/2025: Dow 45947.32 | S&P 6604.72 | NASDAQ 22384.70 | Russell 2K 2411.04 | NYSE 21336.99 | Value Line Arith 11920.57

 

Seasonal: Neutral. Octoberphobia can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. October is also the last month of the market’s “Worst Months.” Over the recent 21 years, October has been a reasonably solid month for the market, ranking 4th best for DJIA, 5th for S&P 500 and Russell 1000, 6th for NASDAQ and 9th for Russell 2000. In post-election years since 1950, October ranks mid-pack with average gains ranging from 1.2% (DJIA) to 1.9% (NASDAQ).

 

Fundamental: Mixed. Some inflation metrics appear to be trending higher and are still above the Fed’s stated 2% target while the most recent PPI reading was negative. Q2 GDP was revised higher to a 3.8% annualized pace today and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q3 GDP has climbed to 3.3% as of its September 17, 2025 estimate. However, employment data has softened with monthly job gains slowing to just +22000 in August following sizable downward revisions to previous months while the unemployment rate is still just 4.3%.

 

Technical: Consolidating. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and at long last Russell 2000 logged new all-time closing highs. After defying typical weak seasonality in August and most of September, the indexes appear to be pausing to consolidate gains. First support levels are likely around late August highs, DJIA 45650, S&P 500 6505, and NASDAQ 21720. Russell 2000 could endure a deeper pullback, with support around 2300.

 

Monetary: 4.00 – 4.25%. As widely expected, the Fed did cut 0.25% off its key lending rate at its September meeting. Expectations for future cuts are not as clear with some expecting just one more cut before the end of the year and others looking for two cuts. The Fed has repeatedly stated its “data dependence,” but economic data has not been all the clear recently. Growth measured by GDP appears to be improving, some inflation metrics have moved higher, while the labor market has softened. Absent a “crisis” to fight, the Fed does appear to be leaning toward fewer rate cuts than many would like or expect.

 

Sentiment: Caution. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 58.5%. Correction advisors are down to 24.5% and Bearish advisors were at 17.0% as of their September 24 release. With the spread between the number of bulls and bears expanding above 40, advisor sentiment is deep into the caution zone. Patience appears to be the best course of action for now. Should the market’s current consolidation result in the mild pullback we have not ruled out, sentiment will likely become more favorable. 

 

Up until this week bearish seasonality has been non-existent this “Worst Six Months” period. After the tariff tantrum that sent the S&P 500 down 18.9% on a closing basis to the April 8 low, the market has soared for five months straight. So much for “Sell in May” this year. As we pointed out last month, “when bearish seasonality doesn’t transpire it is a bullish indication that more powerful forces are at play.” S&P 500 has logged eight new all-time highs since then in usually bearish September. This is also bullish. 

 

Looking back at past years when S&P 500 closed at new all-time highs five or more times in September, we see subsequent performance improve even further when compared to “All Years”. The biggest improvement was in full-month September performance, jumping from a 0.68% average loss in “All Years” to a 2.76% gain. Frequency of gains in September also improved significantly from just 44% to 87.5%. November’s results also show a sizable improvement in both average gain and frequency of advance. October and December were modestly softer however, remained bullish.

 

Q4 performance has historically been solid but it also improved following five or more new all-time highs in September with only one loss in 8 years. There was also a reduction in the maximum drawdown during Q4. The only Q4 decline was way back in 1967.

 

 

With valuations running hot, a few disappointments from the AI Tech camp and another looming government shutdown, the market has begun to correct a tad this week during the seasonally weak period after Triple Witching quarterly options expiration (week after TWW, S&P down 27 of 35), and end of Q3 when institutions tend to restructure and window dress portfolios ahead of Q4 and yearend. 

 

We still anticipate any pullback or retreat to be relatively brief and shallow. Afterwards the current bull market is likely to push higher adding more new all-time highs as yearend approaches. After this dip we expect a banner Q4 rally that should drive the S&P 500 up to 7100 by year-end for another 20% yearly gain right in line with our best case 2025 forecast scenario of 12-20%. It is for these reasons that we presented a basket of new stock ideas two weeks ago and are preparing for a potentially early start to the market’s Best Months.

 

 

This current pullback is setting up for a timely “Best Six Months” MACD Seasonal Buy Signal. As a reminder the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is:

 

1. A new buy signal crossover using our 8-17-9 MACD indicator AND

2. The crossover must occur on or after the first trading day of October AND

3. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ MACD indicators must all agree.

 

In fact, this dip has already pushed our faster moving 8-17-9 MACD indicators applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ into negative territory setting up for a new buy signal crossover. 

 

 

 

As you can see from the updated S&P 500 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern Chart below, the modern history of post-election years being the best year of the 4-year cycle since 1985 powers ahead. S&P averages a gain of 18.1% in post-election years since 1985, up 9, down 1 (2001). Save a black swan event over the last few days of September S&P 500 remains on track to log its fifth consecutive monthly gain. A little late September/early October pullback could be just the pause that refreshes the bull for a substantial Q4 rally. 

 

 

 

Even more bullish is the stellar Worst Six Months we are having. As of today’s close, S&P 500 is up 18.6% for the Worst Six Months May-October, which is the third best WSM since 1950. Yes, there are still 26 trading days left in the WSM, and a lot can happen in a month, especially in October. But so far, the S&P is off just 1.3% since Monday’s newest all-time closing high. 

 

Three items stand out most in the table here of the S&P 500 Top 20 Greatest Worst Six Months. First, there are no losses in these 20 previous Q4s and the average gain is 6.64%. Then there is the yearly performance. Up 100% of the time with an average gain of 23.73%. Finally, the subsequent Best Six Months are substantially better, up an average of 9.57% vs 7.03% over the full 75 years since 1950. 

 

Of the last four BSM losses: interest rates were high in early 1990 ahead of the recession before the FOMC began cutting rates; early 1993 weakness was driven by post-election year uncertainty with the new Clinton Administration; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped trigger the bear market in 2022 and the April 2025 tariff tantrum put the 2024 BSM in the red.

 

 

Our sense is that bull market is taking a short breather now. We expect the government shutdown will get resolved as it has every time. This pullback is likely to be short lived, shallow and a buy-the-dip moment. We don’t expect any substantial correction or market weakness until next year when the midterm election battles heat up. So, for now, use this current pullback to get positioned and ready for a monster Q4 rally that drives the S&P up to the vicinity of 7100 by yearend.

 

 

DJIA continued to defy typical seasonal weakness throughout September right up until earlier this week. After closing at multiply new all-time highs (1) above 46000, DJIA has declined for three days straight. Declines have been relatively mild and DJIA is still up 0.9% this month as of its September 25 close. With a single trading day left in the historically dangerous, week after September Triple Witching options expiration, DJIA is down –0.8%.

 

Faster and slower moving MACD indicators applied to DJIA have been oscillating between positive and negative since September 3. The faster moving MACD Buy turned negative (2) on Wednesday September 24th. The is the MACD indicator that is used for our Seasonal MACD Buy signal. Today’s weakness has also turned the slower moving MACD Sell indicator negative, confirming DJIA’s loss of upward momentum and potentially signaling the start of the mild pullback we have been anticipating. 

 

 

From the first full week of trading ending August 8, 2025, through week ending September 19, 2025, DJIA has enjoyed five weekly gains (3) of around 1% or more and just two weekly losses each less than –0.4%. NASDAQ (5) has the same record with even bigger gains, while S&P 500 (4) has advanced in six of the last seven full weeks and its single weekly loss was just one-tenth of one percent. Catalysts for this solid summer trading remain AI, Fed rate cut expectations, and persistent government spending.

 

Over the last four full weeks, market breadth has been tepid and somewhat concerning last week (6). Despite solid across-the-board gains from DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ last week, NYSE Weekly Decliners outnumbered Weekly Advancers. This suggests that participation in the rally could be waning, which can lead to a pause or even modest market pullback. This week’s weakness appears to be the follow through.

 

New 52-week Highs and Lows (7) have also been giving off mixed signals. Bullishly, New Highs reached a new 2025 peak of 364 last week, but the trend of New 52-week Lows also appears to be expanding after bottoming at just 25 during the final week of August. Some of these mixed signals could be due to moves made by interest rate sensitive stocks ahead of and after the Fed’s recent interest rate cut.

 

Treasury bond yields have declined in response to softer economic data and the Fed’s anticipated path for additional interest rate cuts. The 90-day Treasury yield (8) appears to have nearly priced in two more 0.25% reductions from the Fed by the end of the year. The 30-year Treasury yield has also moved lower. Lower rates have historically benefited stocks as long as other data does not turn clearly negative.

 

 

Meet Jeff in Orlando at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando where 100+ experts will join him to educate over 1,000 investors and traders. He will give you his personal important portfolio decisions for Q4 and the approaching political year ahead of 2026.

 

 

Join over 60+ exhibitors, 10 in-depth MoneyMasters classes, and get key economic, geopolitical, and financial market trends. You can choose from over 200 sessions and get actionable recommendations for your stock and bond portfolio. You will bring home great strategies for precious metals, real estate, options and trading skills to make you a more confident investor and trader. 

 

You won’t just LEARN a lot in Orlando, either. You’ll also have a GREAT TIME doing it! MoneyShow has several social activities and receptions planned for you – all of which will help you establish lasting, valuable connections with the experts and your fellow attendees. 

 

Here are the sessions Jeff will be taking part in at the October 16-18th event at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate:

 

October has earned its reputation as a Bear-Killer, Bargain Month, and Turnaround Month. Despite its spooky history of crashes—what we call Octoberphobia—it’s also the launchpad for the market’s strongest stretch: the Best Six Months. Discovered by Yale Hirsch and published in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac, this powerful seasonal pattern kicks off in late October, favoring tech stocks and small caps in particular. Join Jeff as he shows you how to capitalize on this proven seasonal trend with undervalued stock picks, tactical ETF plays, and his trusted MACD timing strategy to switch into offense just as Wall Street gets back on its heels. 

 

Discover how to capitalize on powerful seasonal trends, overlooked stocks, and top sector ETFs — just in time for the year’s most profitable stretch. Q4 is historically the strongest quarter of the post-election year — and October is the ideal time to position for gains. Join Jeff Hirsch as he walks you through how to take advantage of this seasonal sweet spot using his time-tested “Best Six Months” strategy, the MACD timing indicator, and smart screens to uncover undervalued, under-the-radar stocks and leading sector ETFs. You’ll also learn how the 4-Year Election Cycle, the AI tech surge, crypto, and commodities are shaping new opportunities — and how to position your portfolio for lower-risk, higher-reward outcomes in the months ahead. 

 

 

It's an incredible opportunity you won't want to miss. Which is why each year, hundreds of investors, traders, and financial professionals flock to MoneyShow events. Click here to download the event brochure with complete details. 

 

Then click here to register – or call MoneyShow’s customer service team at 1-800-970-4355 and mention priority code 065788. 

 

Jeff is looking forward to connecting with you in Orlando this October.

 

 

The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so keep this in mind as new all-time highs in September were historically followed by modestly softer performance in October when compared to all years. 

 

October can evoke fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point DJIA drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point DJIA drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, DJIA lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline, in percentage terms, in our database going back to 1901. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the largest DJIA weekly point decline.

 

However, October has been a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will, turning the tide in thirteen post-WWII bear markets: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%), and 2022. Only 1960 was an election year. While not in an official bear market this year, the possibility of some market weakness and headline induced volatility remains.

 

Over the last twenty-one years (2004-2024), the full month of October has been a fairly solid month for the market, ranking 4th best for DJIA, 5th for S&P 500 and Russell 1000, 6th for NASDAQ and 9th for Russell 2000. All have logged average gains ranging from 0.3% by Russell 2000 to 1.1% by DJIA and NASDAQ. But these gains have been accompanied by volatile trading, most notably during the early days of the month. 

 

 

October has historically opened softly with mixed performance on its first trading day. On the second day, all but Russell 2000 have been weak followed by a rebound on the third trading day before additional weakness pulled the market lower through the seventh or eighth trading day. At which point, the market has historically found support and begun to rally through mid-month and beyond. In post-election years since 1950, October has been stronger from the start with strength lasting until around the 15th or 16th trading days before weakening to close out the month.

 

 

Post-election year October’s are neither great nor bad since 1953, ranking mid-pack across DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 with average gains ranging from 1.2% (DJIA) to 1.9% (NASDAQ). DJIA has the best historical odds for gains having advanced in 13 of the last 18 post-election year Octobers. Despite the best average gain, NASDAQ actually has the weakest record based upon frequency of advances, declining in 6 of the last 13 post-election year Octobers. A 12.8% gain in 2001 boosts its average. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.

 

Monthly options expiration week in October provides plenty of opportunity. On the Monday before monthly expiration DJIA has only been down 10 times since 1982 and the Russell 2000 is up twenty-six of the last thirty-five years, seventeen straight from 1990 to 2006. Expiration day has a mixed record while the week as a whole has been improving with S&P 500 up fifteen of the last seventeen with an average gain of 1.05%. Historically, after a market pullback in October, the week after monthly options expiration has been more bullish, otherwise it is susceptible to downdrafts.

 

 

October is also the end of the Dow and S&P 500 “Worst 6 Months” and NASDAQ “Worst 4 Months.” Remain attentive for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal which can occur anytime beginning October 1 (the first trading day of the month this year). We will email all members after the market’s close when the seasonal buy triggers.

 

 

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August showed inflation is still above the Fed’s stated 2% target but does not appear to be accelerating much beyond expectations. With inflation metrics failing to show any troubling increases due to tariffs, focus has shifted to the labor market where data has been weakening. Earlier this week, non-farm payroll data for the 12-months ending in March was revised lower by 911,000 jobs, suggesting job growth was much slower than initially reported. Today’s seasonally adjusted weekly jobless claims also accelerated to 263,000, their highest level since 2021.

 

Soft labor market data and seemingly under control inflation metrics kept expectations of a September Fed interest rate cut alive and well today. DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all closed at new all-time highs while Russell 2000 jumped over 1.8% higher to close less than 22 points from its all-time high set way back in November 2021. Prior to today, S&P 500 had already closed at new all-time highs in September, historically the worst month of the year since 1950.

 

 

All-time closing highs are generally bullish, even in September. Looking back at past years when S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high one or more times in September, we see subsequent performance generally improve when compared to All Years. The biggest improvement was in full-month September performance, jumping from a 0.68% average loss in All Years to a 1.15% gain. Frequency of gains in September also improved significantly from just 44% to 68.2%. November’s results also show a sizable improvement in both average gain and frequency of advance. October and December were modestly softer however, remained bullish.

 

Performance from October through December has historically been solid but it also improved following new all-time highs in September with only two losses in 22 years. There was also a reduction in the maximum drawdown during the October to December period. The only double-digit decline was in 2018 when the Fed upset the market by pushing interest rates too far.

 

In the near term, we still cannot completely rule out the possibility of some market weakness and headline induced volatility. But we still anticipate any pullback, or retreat to be relatively brief and shallow, likely in the low to middle single digit range. Afterwards the current bull market is likely to propel the market to more new all-time highs as yearend approaches. It is for these reasons that we present to you today a basket of brand new stock recommendations.

 

 

This basket is being presented in advance of the “Best Months” of the year (November through April/June) for stocks. We will look to add these 16 stocks, in the table below, near current levels or on minor to modest dips. Many of the positions did strengthen in today’s solid trading session but there is no need to rush. As a reminder, the buy limit is our suggested maximum price to pay. For tracking purposes, we will allocate a hypothetical $3000 from the cash position in the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio to each position. When considering your own allocation, please consider these stocks to be a portion of the growth equity in your portfolio.

 

For each stock we have provided the ticker, name, sector, general business description, PE, price-to-sales ratio, market value, current price, a dividend yield and a suggested buy limit and stop loss. There is also a link above the table to download the table in an Excel file (.xls format). This should aid importing and researching these stocks as most trading platforms and research software have support to import a stock list.

 

These 16 stocks all have reasonably solid valuations relative to the major indexes and corresponding sectors as well as revenue and earnings growth potential. Most also exhibit positive price and volume action as well as other constructive technical and chart pattern indications. The group of 16 covers a broad array of sectors and industries. It also runs the gamut of market capitalization with a mix of large caps with more than $10 billion in market value, midcaps in the $2-10 billion range, and small caps under $2 billion. There may even be a name or two that you are already familiar with.

 

To arrive at this list of 16, we first sifted through the universe of U.S. traded stocks for those with a market cap of at least $100 million and average daily volume of 50,000 shares or more on average over the past fifty trading sessions. Then we trimmed the list down to only those stocks with relatively low price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios with some limited exceptions.

 

We then dug into numerous individual company charts before settling on these final 16 stocks. Our underlying theme was to find reasonably priced stocks that appear to be growing sales and earnings while flying somewhat under the radar with only a limited number on The Street paying close attention to them. As market valuation goes higher, this becomes increasingly challenging, and a history of earnings surprises and positive estimate revisions becomes even more important. 

 

At the end of the screening process, we were left with a reasonably diverse basket. We did not search specifically for top-performing stocks within any specific sector; this just happens to be what remained after our selection process was completed.

 

 

 

Over the past five weeks, through the close on September 10, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio was up 0.9%, excluding dividends and any potential interest on the cash position, compared to a 2.9% advance by S&P 500 and a 7.1% surge by Russell 2000. Across the portfolio, mid-cap positions were best on average, advancing 6.9% followed by large-caps, up 2.5%.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $1. Despite reporting record revenue growth and generating a profit in Q2, shares continue to languish around the $1 price. Potentially of greater interest is the company also announced that it is seeking strategic alternatives to its clinical research and patient services businesses so it can focus on its data science and AI offerings. This could take time, but if successfully completed, HWAIF could finally breakout out of its current trading range.

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) can be considered with a buy limit of $45.00. Volatility persists with SMCI but it appears to have begun to recover losses from its poor, early August earnings release. The recent announcement that SMCI entered into a strategic partnership with Nokia shows that they are still in the AI business. It could also open the door to additional partnerships.

 

Interdigital (IDCC) is on hold. Shares jumped over 8% higher today to new 52-week and all-time highs on news that it was awarded an injunction against Disney. Without going too deep, Disney is likely going to have to pay up to continue using IDCC technology that is patented. This additional revenue will likely flow straight to IDCC’s bottom-line. 

 

All other previously held positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent market moves.

 

 

 

If you missed the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar we reviewed key seasonal pattern charts that we have been tracking throughout the year, current GDP and inflation trends, Fed interest rate expectations, and what we anticipate during September and beyond. 

 

In the near term, we still cannot completely rule out the possibility of some market weakness and volatility. However, given the reasonably firm economic data thus far and the market’s resiliency, any pullback or retreat is still likely to brief and shallow, likely low to middle single digits. Afterwards, Fed interest rate cut expectations and AI fueled growth and spending are expected to propel the market to more new all-time highs in Q4.

 

 

Market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut later this month have risen to 99.4% according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool (as of September 4, 2025). Recent inflation metrics have ticked higher and remain above the Fed’s stated 2% target, but the real focus of the Fed appears to be on employment data. Today’s ADP National Employment Report signaled further softness as private payrolls increased by just 54,000 compared to consensus forecast for 75,000. Tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely be even more closely watched. Any substantial deviation from the current estimate of around 75,000 new jobs could trigger further market volatility.

 

Historically, the market has been mixed with a bearish lean on employment report day in September over the last 21 years. Only S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have seen more positive days than negative while average performance is negative across the board ranging from –0.38% by NASDAQ to –0.20% from DJIA. NASDAQ has the weakest record of all. After enjoying gains in the majority of years from 2008 to 2017, losses have been most prevalent the last seven years since 2018. Last year, expectations were missed and all five indexes declined by over 1% with NASDAQ dropping 2.55%.

 

 

Barring a major miss, or even a negative jobs number, we still think the Fed will most likely remain on course for just a 0.25% interest rate cut at its upcoming September 16-17 meeting and perhaps another one 0.25% cut before year-end. The Fed has a track record of not taking aggressive action until clearly needed and despite recent labor market data softening, the economy does not appear to be heading into a recession or facing an imminent crisis.

 

 

No Sector Seasonalities from page 94 of the 2025 Almanac begin or end in September. However, back in 2023, Jeff Hirsch teamed up with Adrian Zdunczyk, CMT, Founder and CEO of THE BIRB NEST® (@Crypto_Birb) to create “The Seasonality of Bitcoin” report. The original report is available here or by copying and pasting this link into a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/UploadedDocument/Seasonality _of_Cryptocurrency_Report.pdf. In the report Bitcoin demonstrated a seasonal tendency to bottom or hit a low in September followed by a solid rally into yearend. This was certainly the situation last year when Bitcoin hit an early September low just above $50,000 prior to taking off and racing above $100,000 by mid-December. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to be setting up for a potentially similar September low.

 

 

The above chart is iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), our preferred ETF to trade the seasonal setup in Bitcoin. It is highly liquid, easily accessible and has relatively low fees. There are other ETFs available that also track Bitcoin, which are also perfectly fine options, but IBIT is the one we will use. We strongly encourage taking a moment and visiting www.ishares.com to review all relevant documents and information prior to executing any trade in IBIT.

 

After reaching an all-time high earlier in August, Bitcoin and IBIT have retreated back below their respective 50-day moving averages. Stochastic, relative strength and MACD are all currently negative but are beginning to hint at a possible turnaround. IBIT can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $61.40. This price appears to correlate to a Bitcoin price of around $108,000. If purchased, consider setting an initial stop loss at $58.15. This trade will be tracked in the Almanac Investor Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio.

 

 

The market’s resilience during its historically weak period has put modest pressure on defensive positions in the portfolio. SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) was down 1.4% as of the close on September 3 and SPDR Utilities (XLU) has also pulled back slightly but is still up 12.1% since being added to the portfolio back in March. XLP and XLU are on Hold.

 

Gold mining positions in VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) got off to a slow start but jumped higher as physical gold surged to new all-time highs. GDX and GDXJ both traded above their respective auto-sell prices during the past week and have been closed out of the portfolio for an average gain of 20.4%. If you have not closed out your positions in GDX and/or GDXJ, a trailing stop loss can also be considered to preserve gains. SPDR Gold (GLD) jumped to a gain of 7.2% and is on Hold. 

 

Currency ETFs, FXE and FXF are on Hold. After a respectable rally in July, the US dollar has been under renewed pressure which has lifted FXE and FXF. A Fed interest rate cut could further pressure the US dollar especially if longer term interest rates also begin to decline.

 

iShares Biotech (IBB), SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI) and iShares US Technology (IYW) have not been added to the portfolio yet as no meaningful dip or retreat materialized in August. IBB, XBI, and IYW can all still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. If not added beforehand, we will likely consider adding them when the Seasonal MACD Buy signal triggers.

 

DBA, IDV, EFAV, EFV, and EZU can also still be considered on dips. These positions are a hedge against the possibility of a weaker US dollar and slowing US economic growth. Plus, they come with the added benefit of paying a reasonable dividend, with the exception of DBA.

 

 

 

Although the Fed is widely expected to cut rates later this month, it appears the bond market is not fully onboard yet. Longer dated Treasury bond yields have retreated modestly but not nearly as much as near-term yields. Shares of TLT, AGG and BND did move modestly higher today, but as of their respective closes on Wednesday, September 3, just BND was fractionally positive excluding dividends. Continue to Hold TLT, AGG, and BND.

 

After paying their respective dividends, short-term bond ETFs, SHV and SGOV were fractionally negative as of their September 3rd closes. SHV and SGOV are on Hold. We anticipate holding all bond ETFs until our Seasonal MACD Buy signal triggers. As of September 3, 2025, SHV and SGOV have 30-day SEC yields of 4.01% and 4.22% respectively.

 

As a reminder, the earliest our Seasonal MACD Buy signal can trigger is the first trading day of October (10/1/2025). The criteria to be satisfied is a new positive crossover on MACD (8-17-9) and DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ must all agree/confirm. If two are positive and one is not, the criteria are not satisfied. We expect to delve deeper into our Seasonal Buy Signal setup later this month.