Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, December 2025 Outlook & Update on Tuesday November 25, 2025, at 4:00 PM EDT here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4856217855941100126   

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for December 2025, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

 

11/20/2025: Dow 45752.26 | S&P 6538.76 | NASDAQ 22078.05 | Russell 2K 2305.11 | NYSE 20912.89 | Value Line Arith 11418.47

 

Seasonal: Bullish. December is the third best DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ month of the year. It is Russell 2000’s second best month of the year. Average gains range from 1.4% by S&P 500 to 2.1% from Russell 2000. Post-election-year performance has been mildly softer but average performance remains respectable in a range of 0.8% (S&P 500) to 2.2% (Russell 2000). “Free Lunch” stocks are scheduled to be delivered via email before the market opens on December 22. Our first indicator for the new year, the “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on December 24 and spans seven trading days through January 5, 2026.

 

Fundamental: Mixed. A drought of economic data due to the Federal government shutdown is only further compounding concerns. Today’s release of September’s delayed employment report was better than anticipated with 119,000 jobs being added but it seems dated and irrelevant at this point. October’s employment report has been cancelled, and November’s has been pushed back to December 16. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q3 GDP is up to 4.2% and trending higher as of its November 19 update. GDP growth does not seem to align with employment data. Nonetheless corporate earnings were broadly better than expected during the current reporting period.

 

Technical: Pullback. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have all logged new all-time closing over the past four weeks. DJIA’s last all-time closing high was just last week while other indexes peaked right around the Fed’s October meeting. All have retreated below their respective 50-day moving averages but remain above their 200-day moving averages. DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are testing support around their October lows. Russell 2000 has already taken out its October lows and is currently trading around its highs from back in January and February. If current support fails, the market could quickly slip further and possibly into a correction (a 10% or greater decline from recent highs).

 

Monetary: 3.75 – 4.00%. It is all the Fed’s fault. Late to respond to surging inflation, late to recognize inflation’s retreat, and notoriously poor forecasters. There may never have been a promise of a December rate cut but there certainly were plenty of strong signals. In the absence of data, why not err on the side of easy monetary policy? The Fed’s target rate is a range and even with a 0.25% reduction the high end of the new range would still overlap with the bottom of the previous target range.  

 

Sentiment: Retreating. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 48.1%. Correction advisors are up to 35.2% and Bearish advisors were at 16.7% as of their November 19 release. Over the past two weekly readings, bulls have declined from their peak at 59.3% while the correction camp has swelled from 25.9% to its current level. Overall sentiment is essentially neutral but trending toward levels that have historically signaled reduced risk for new long positions. Historically corrections advisors tend to increase in number as the market corrects and generally peak around the time the correction has run its course. Current levels are not quite there yet but could get there soon.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!

 

This season always reminds us how fortunate we are to do what we do. It is a privilege to share our market analysis, outlooks, and recommendations with you — and we are deeply grateful for your trust. 

 

To our long-time members, thank you especially for your continued loyalty. Helping you navigate markets and manage your family’s wealth is an honor we never take for granted. 

 

We’re also thankful to those who join us each month on our members-only webinar. Your questions, insights, and candid conversations make the dialogue richer and help shape the work we do. That exchange of ideas is truly invaluable. 

 

Wishing you and your loved ones a happy, healthy, and peaceful holiday season.

 

Before we dive into this month’s outlook we wanted to share a few publication notes. As you can see, we are publishing the December Outlook today instead of the usual time on the last Thursday of the month as that is Thanksgiving this November. We pulled everything forward this month to work around the holiday. Last week we published the December 2025 Almanac and on Tuesday next week ahead of the holiday we will host the monthly members-only webinar. 

 

• December Almanac was published November 13

• December Outlook today November 20

• Monthly member’s only webinar Tuesday November 25, 4pm ET

• Office Closed Thanksgiving November 27

• ETF Issue December 4

• Stocks Issue December 11

• 2025 Annual Forecast/January Outlook December 18

• Free Lunch Stock Picks December 20

• January Almanac December 23

• Office Closed December 24 to January 1 

(Unless there is a major market or world event that warrants a Special Update)

 

We have heard a lot of complicated explanations for the recent decline. There was a Bitcoin automatic deleveraging (ADL) event that was triggered on October 10 by the US-China trade escalation generating the largest ever one-day forced liquidation event. Bitcoin is down over 30% from that day. But the bulk of that drop has transpired since a much more traditional finance event. After rallying back up to 115,000, BTC fell off a cliff following the now infamous October 29 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell’s presser that day where he flip-flopped from being dovish for many months and told the market no, I’ve changed my mind, no more cuts right now.

 

Crypto has clearly become a leading sentiment indicator for the stock market. But if we step back and look at the timing and nature of the market pullback and simplify our analysis it really looks like it’s all about the Fed. They may never have promised to cut more, but they sure led the market to believe that was the direction for a good part of the year, even as inflation metrics drifted higher, they began pointing to their concerns with the labor market. While the economy and the labor market may be on decent footing, the correlation of the Fed’s most recent waffling at their last FOMC meeting on October 29 with the current decline is undeniable. Look at the chart below of the NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Bitcoin since the October 29 FOMC line in the sand. NASDAQ hit its last all-time high (ATH) on October 28, S&P 500’s was reached on the 29th.

 

 

S&P 500 is now down 5.1% from its October 28 ATH. NASDAQ is down 7.8% from its October 28 ATH. Russell 2000 is down 8.5% from its October 27 ATH and the Dow is now off 5.2% from its November 12 ATH. The market has not had a pullback of this magnitude since April. While many AI tech stocks, cryptocurrencies and other highflyers are down more significantly, many other stocks and sectors are up over the past few weeks such as Walmart, Regeneron, Biotech and Healthcare. 

 

This pullback brings up questions about whether this is the start of something bigger. Our view is it’s a healthy pause after a long upside run without one, not a major correction or end of the bull market. November dips often precede year end seasonal strength and December is still one of the top three months of the year. Typical mid-November weakness has been exacerbated by the Fed’s waffling on rate cuts, short term overbought conditions, frothy sentiment, a bit too much leverage and some forced liquidation in the crypto markets. 

 

S&P 500 retested the October 10 lows today. But as you can see in the updated S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern chart, the blue-chip index is still above two of the three bullish post-election year lines and up 11.2% year-to-date though the rally has clearly stalled at the moment. Seasonals are in our favor, and the economy remains on solid footing, but if current support fails the market appears vulnerable to fall further into a 10% correction or a bit more on the S&P.

 

 

 

Despite today’s reversal and the pullback over the last few weeks, the S&P 500’s 11.2% YTD gain as of today’s close is bullish. Holding these double-digit gains into next week is important. When stocks logged double-digit gains YTD on the on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, in general market gains continued into yearend.

 

There are a few blemishes in the 36 previous years, but most importantly, there are no major selloffs on this list. The big December decline of -9.2% in 2018 came after the S&P 500 was down -1.2% at this point in the year. After double-digit YTD gains the S&P 500 was up 70% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to yearend for an average gain of 2.2%.

 

Also of note is that the Santa Claus Rally suffered only five losses in these years. But these five down SCRs in 1955, 1968, 1999, 2014 and 2023 were followed by flat years in 1956 and 2015, down years in 1969 and 2000, but solid gains in 2024. As Yale’s famous line states (2025 & 2026 Almanac page 118): “If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.”

 

 

 

December is the third best month of the year for DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ and #2 for Russell 2000 and yearend is frequently when the market hits new highs. December opens a little soft with zero clearly bullish days in the first week of the month often attributed to tax loss selling. This in turn sets up the early “January Effect” when small cap stocks tend to outperform large caps over the last two weeks of the year into mid-January. 

 

Small cap seasonality appears to be stirring and could be setting up for their annual yearend rally into Q1. As we point out on pages 112 and 114 of the Almanac, a significant amount of the “January Effect’s” small-cap outperformance actually takes place in the last half of December as tax-loss selling typically abates.

 

As you can see from the accompanying chart, small caps have been tracking the pattern reasonably well since July. August’s low was earlier than usual and strength lasted longer into mid-October, but July and October weakness were also present. This week’s spike lower and then back up appear to be aligning with November’s typical small-cap low. But small caps can exhibit some choppy trading from now through mid-December and patience has generally been rewarded with opportunities presenting through mid-December.

 

 

Our Free Lunch strategy (2026 STA p 116) targets early-December tax-loss selling and year-end seasonal strength. The Free Lunch Basket will be compiled after the close on December 19, 2025, AKA Triple Witching Day, and emailed to subscribers over the weekend on Saturday, December 20. 

 

And of course, there’s the “Santa Claus Rally,” (2026 STA p 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” This is the first leg of our January Indicator Trifecta (2026 STA p 20) which includes the “First Five Days” (2026 STA p 16) and the full month “January Barometer” (2026 STA p 18), also invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972. This January Trifecta helps us affirm or readjust our outlook. When we hit this Trifecta and all three are positive S&P is up 90.6% of the time with an average gain of 17.7%.

 

Current support levels around today’s close appear crucial. If the current malaise and selling pressure do not abate shortly and the market fails to mount a comeback soon, it may be some time before we hit new all-time highs again. So, if the Fed doesn’t stay naughty and changes its hawkish stance stocks can resume their rally to year end and bring the Santa Claus Rally to Wall Street.

 

 

It was just one week and a day ago that DJIA last closed at a new all-time high above 48,000 for the first time ever (1). Celebrations were short-lived as DJIA has briskly retreated since then to fall below its 50-day moving average earlier this week. As of today’s close, DJIA was down 5.2% from its last high close. This is still in the range of a rather typical, and usually healthy, 5% pullback following a period of robust gains.

 

DJIA’s shift in momentum and quick retreat has been confirmed by both the faster and slower moving MACD indicators (2). Both MACD indicators turned negative on November 14 and remain so through today’s close. DJIA’s uptrend from its April lows remains intact as long as it does not break meaningfully below its October lows.

 

 

At the start of this week DJIA logged its sixth Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) of the year (3). Historically, DF/DM occurrences have been associated with market inflection points and/or shifts in sentiment (page 78 STA). Looking back at the five previous DF/DM’s this year, DJIA posted a weekly gain three times and a weekly loss twice immediately following the DF/DM. Odds for a typical year-end market rally would improve notably if DJIA can recover its losses from this recent DF/DM before Thanksgiving and/or the end of November.

 

Despite the recent pullback, the market’s weekly performance over the last five weeks still appears rather respectable. DJIA and S&P 500 (4) have both logged gains in four of the last five weeks. NASDAQ has been down two weeks in a row but was up over 2% per week for three straight weeks (5). S&P 500 and NASDAQ uptrends from April’s lows also appear intact as long as October’s lows are not decisively broken.

 

Market breadth remains an area of concern. Up until late October the concern was mostly due to concentration of Mag 7 stocks in major indexes. Since then, the Hindenburg Omen has triggered, and Weekly Decliners have outnumbered Weekly Advancers for three straight weeks (6). The Hindenburg Omen is rather nuanced and is based upon daily breadth data. There are apparently multiple ways to calculate the Hindenburg Omen as well as additional technical indicator requirements that must also be satisfied. It is also known for producing false positive readings and getting tripped up by sector rotation/changes in market leadership. With or without the Hindenburg Omen, there is plenty of room for improvement in market breadth data. But that is not going to happen until the major indexes find their footing and begin moving higher once again.

 

New 52-week Highs and Lows (7) are still providing mixed signals. Ideally, we would like to see the number of New Highs steadily expanding while New Lows declined and/or stabilized around a low level. However, over the last four weeks, the number of New Lows choppily increased while New Highs bounced between 229 and 293. And during the week ending November 7, New Lows outnumbered New Highs. The last time there was just a single week of more New Lows than Highs was back in August 2024. After that occurrence DJIA and S&P 500 enjoyed a streak of nine weekly gains in ten weeks.

 

Short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields have reversed course and have begun moving higher over the last three weeks (8). This reversal occurred during the week when the Fed last met and began casting doubt on another interest rate cut in December. A lack of economic data due to the Federal government shutdown also contributed to some degree. It will likely take yet another shift in Fed “speak” for Treasury bond yields to begin retreating again. Until then, the market is likely to remain choppy and volatile.

 

Historically, lower interest rates have been positive for consumers and stocks. Interest rates may have also finally retreated sufficiently to revive the housing market with mortgage rates falling to the lowest level in about a year.

 

 

[Publishing schedule changes: Due to Thanksgiving Day holiday, we are sending December 2025 Vital Stats email Issue today. Next Thursday, November 20, 2025, December’s Outlook email Issue will be sent, and we will host the next member’s only webinar on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. The invite to the webinar will be sent out with the December Outlook Issue next Thursday.]

 

December is the number three Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. It’s also the third-best NASDAQ (since 1971) month. It is the second-best month for Russell 2000 (since 1979). The market rarely falls precipitously in December. In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks have consolidated in the first half of the month. A repeat of 2018 does not seem likely this year as economic growth (GDP) is accelerating, and the Fed is in an easing cycle (lowering interest rates).

 

 

In the last eighteen post-election years, December’s ranking changes modestly to #5 for DJIA and #6 S&P 500, NASDAQ eases to seventh place. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, tend to have a field day in post-election-year Decembers. Since 1981, Russell 2000 has lost ground three times in eleven post-election-year Decembers. The average small cap gain in all eleven years is a solid 2.2%. Russell 2000’s three post-election year December losses were –0.56% in 2017, – 0.60% in 2005, and –1.96% in 1981.

 

 

Trading in December has historically been holiday-inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month has been choppy as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. December’s first trading day leans bearish for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 over the last 21 years and has been outright bearish for Russell 2000. A modest rally through the around the sixth trading day has also fizzled going into mid-month. It is around this point that holiday cheer tends to kick in (and tax-loss selling pressure fades) propelling the indexes higher with a pause near month-end. Post-election year Decembers follow a similar path, but with noticeably better historical gains in second half of the month by Russell 2000.

 

Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of the month (early January Effect) and our “Free Lunch” strategy is served from the offerings of stocks making new 52-week lows on Triple-Witching Friday. An email Issue will be sent prior to the market’s open on December 22 containing “Free Lunch” stock selections. The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of 2026. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day period since 1969 are a respectable 1.2%.

 

This is our first indicator for the market in the New Year. Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. Seven of the last eight times our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015), two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008), a mild bear that ended in February 2016 and a near bear in 2025 triggered by tariffs. Santa’s no show in 2024 was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly faded as the AI-fueled rally resumed. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

 

December Triple Witching Week is more favorable to the S&P 500 with Monday up sixteen of the last twenty-five years while Triple-Witching Friday is up twenty-seven of the last forty-three years with an average 0.20% gain. The entire week has logged S&P 500 gains twenty-nine times in the last forty-one years. The week after December Triple Witching is the best of all weeks after Triple Witching for DJIA and is the only one with a clearly bullish bias, advancing in thirty-three of the last forty-three years. S&P 500 also shines bright with a string of bullish days that runs from December 19 to 26.

 

Trading the day before and the day after Christmas is generally bullish across the board with the greatest gains coming from the day before (NASDAQ up fourteen of the last eighteen). On the last trading day of the year, NASDAQ has been down in nineteen of the last twenty-five years after having been up twenty-nine years in a row from 1971 to 1999. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 have also been struggling recently and have exhibited a bearish bias over the last twenty-one years. Russell 2000’s record very closely resembles NASDAQ, gains every year from 1979 to 1999 and only seven advances since.

 

 

 

It has now been a little more than a week since DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 last closed at new all-time highs. As of today’s close, DJIA is the closest to its October high, off 1.7%. S&P 500 was 2.5% below its closing high while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are 3.8% and 4.0% below their respective highs. In the brief time since those highs, many have begun to wonder if that was the high for the year and whether or not the market has begun another correction.

 

First let’s take a look at the market’s historical distribution of annual highs by month using data for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950, NASDAQ since 1971 and Russell 2000 since 1979. The month with the most annual highs, and not by a small margin, is December. Over 40% of DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 annual highs have been in December. NASDAQ has had the largest percentage at 46.3%. Since 2003, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have all set their annual highs in December 11 times and in the same period there were three additional years when the annual highs were split between December and November.

 

October has hosted a few years of annual highs, but the only year when all four indexes peaked in October was 1989. At that time, the market corrected and the economy entered a recession in July 1990, one month before Iraq invaded Kuwait, kicking off the first Gulf War. Based upon the number of annual highs in October, it ranks fourth in frequency. However, October’s total number of index annual highs is just 19 times compared to 108 times for December. Although there is never a guarantee, market history suggests, and the calendar still permits, the market could still climb higher before year end to set new all-time and annual highs.

 

 

As for the beginning of a correction, or even a new bear, market history suggests the bulls may not be ready to surrender just yet. Based upon S&P 500 bull and bear markets along with corrections (defined as a decline from peak to trough in the range of 10-19.9%), the current bull market is only slightly above half the S&P 500 average bull market since 1949. At S&P 500’s October 28, high close, it was up 92.6% compared to its historical bull market average of 177.4%. The current bull market is also below average in duration, 1112 calendar days versus an average of 1863.

 

Even a correction (10 to 19.9% decline) now appears somewhat out of line with market history. Since 1948 there have been 27 corrections during S&P 500 bull markets. On average they have occurred around once every 522 calendar days. The last correction ended 251 days ago (based upon an October 28 high close) plus two corrections starting in the same year has only happened one previous time, midterm year 2018.

 

 

While it is somewhat unsettling to see the market struggle during historically favorable periods like now, it did rally substantially from its early April lows, pushing valuations in some areas of the market to lofty levels. The federal government shutdown drags on with no clear end in sight and inflation is still elevated, likely souring consumer sentiment. However, the shutdown will end at some point, inflation is not spiking higher, the Fed is cutting interest rates and quantitative tightening is scheduled to end later this month while AI development and infrastructure spending is boosting economic activity.

 

In the near-term, some additional market volatility and choppiness are likely as the market consolidates its gains, but the rally is likely to resume and lift the market to new highs by year end. 

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on November 5, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 1.4% lower, excluding dividends and any potential interest on the cash position, compared to a 0.6% advance by S&P 500 and a 0.8% decline by Russell 2000. Across the portfolio, small-cap positions were best on average, advancing 0.7% while mid- and large-cap positions declined on average.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can be considered at current levels up to a buy limit of $1. Q3 financial results were reported today. Revenue increased 354% year over year largely due to its acquisition of Orion Health. Management is working to narrow the company’s focus through strategic divestments, acquisitions, and joint ventures. Shares have been stuck right around $1 per share for most of the year and are likely to continue to bounce around this level as management continues to develop and market its AI-driven healthcare solutions around the globe.

 

EZCorp (EZPW) still has not been added to the portfolio and it has not run too far away. EZPW can be considered on dips with a revised buy limit of $17.45. EZPW owns and operates pawn businesses in the US and in Latin American. Valuations remain attractive and it is likely to benefit (at least indirectly) from higher precious metal prices.

 

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) reported financial results today and they did not disappoint. Shares of COLL closed today up over 13%. Revenues jumped over 30% compared to a year ago resulting in solid beats on the top and bottom lines. Today’s gains are not reflected in the table below. COLL can still be considered on dips. 

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) quarterly results were a disappointment, and shares took a hit. SMCI’s decline since last update was responsible for about half of the entire portfolio’s decline. Revenue and profit were below estimates. This miss was likely further compounded by broader weakness across the AI sector. One potential positive for SMCI was the misses were apparently the result of changes in delivery schedules. If this holds, then the expected revenue and earnings could show up in the next earnings report. We have taken profits on SMCI twice already at much higher levels. SMCI is on Hold.

 

Grand Canyon Ed (LOPE) has been hammered over the last two weeks. It did settle some legal matters but at a lofty $35 million price tag. This hit, combined with quarterly results that were just in line with expectations, triggered waves of selling and LOPE closed below its stop loss today. LOPE will be closed out on Friday November 7. The final price will appear in the next Stock Portfolio update.

 

TBBK, CVLT, and HESM have also been stopped out of the portfolio. TBBK missed both revenue and earnings estimates and lowered full-year guidance. CVLT collapsed on an earnings miss that triggered some analysts to lower their price targets. CVLT is growing revenues, but margins are apparently shrinking. Broader energy market weakness and earnings expectations were the main catalysts for HESM closing below its stop loss.

 

AT&T (T) was stopped out on October 23 when it closed below its stop at $24.82. T was the oldest holding in the portfolio and was originally added for its sizable dividend. If you had purchased it for its dividend, it is likely perfectly acceptable to continue holding it.

 

Please see table below for most recent advice. Note some stop losses and buy limits have been updated to account for recent market moves.

 

 

 

For those who were unable to attend the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In addition to the seasonal pattern charts we have been tracking and presenting throughout the year, Jeff reviewed the numerous seasonal indicators and patterns that occur in November, December and carryover into January.

 

The Q4 rally we have been looking for is underway and S&P 500 is well on its way to 7100 (or possibly even a bit higher) by year end. Seasonality has become favorable and the Best 3 consecutive month span will begin next Monday. November is the best month of the year, and it begins this year with a streak of 6 straight bullish days that could extend the historically bullish Halloween trade an additional two days. We do not expect S&P 500 to be up on each and every day, but this cluster certainly highlights historical market strength at the beginning of the “Best 3/6/8 Months.”

 

Despite some weakness today triggered by apparently disappointing earnings from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), the AI-fueled Super Boom, that has driven the market higher in recent years, is highly likely to continue. Substantial investments in AI have been and are being made, and like or not, AI is likely here to stay. Investors may occasionally grow impatient waiting for a return on all the investment but they keep coming back. META’s earnings miss due to a one-time tax charge is likely a perfect example of the frustration however, when you look at their revenue numbers, investors and traders will likely return once again.

 

There has also been some progress with trade policy and tariffs. Granted much work remains to be done, but there does seem to be a general framework in place, and this does bring at least a small fraction of some much-needed stability. Plus, the Fed is also in an easing cycle. Regardless of the market’s initial response to Fed Chair Powell’s comments about another December rate cut, it really remains the Fed’s only course of action at its next meeting in December. In fact, if you look back at Fed action throughout history, lower rates (and then QE) have been their only real moves in response to a weaker labor market and/or slowing economic activity. Being “data-driven,” the Fed’s reluctance to commit to the next cut is understandable. Absent data due to the federal government shutdown, the odds for a December rate cut are likely much higher than the market currently thinks.

 

Speaking of the shutdown, it appears the situation is nearing a boiling point. From air traffic control to SNAP benefits, patience is wearing thin. We suspect things will begin to move once the results start coming out following Election Day next week. The reopening of the federal government could be the next catalyst for the Q4 rally to begin its next leg higher.

 

Copper’s Bullish Seasonality 

 

Copper tends to make a major seasonal bottom in November/December and then tends to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. This pattern could be due to the buildup of inventories by miners and manufacturers as the construction season begins in late winter to early spring. Auto makers are also preparing for the new car model year that often begins in mid- to late summer. After getting hit by a 50% tariff at the end of July, copper has rebounded and appears to be beginning its historically favorable season early this year. 

 

Futures traders can consider going long a May 2026 futures contract on or about December 12 and hold until around late February. In this trade’s 53-year history, it has worked 35 times for a success rate of 66.0%. The average gain in all years is 5.4%. After four straight years of declines from 2012 to 2015, this trade has been successful in seven of the last nine years with respectable theoretical gains based upon trading a single contract. Last year, copper did hit a seasonal low in November, bounced and retested the low in January before shooting higher until the end of March.

 

Cumulative profit, based upon trading a single futures contract excluding commissions and fees, is a respectable $109,775. A little less than one-fifth of that profit came in 2007, as the cyclical boom in the commodity market magnified that year’s seasonal price move. However, this trade has produced other notable big gains per single contract, such as the $16,350 gain from December 2020 to February 2021, and even back in 2011, it registered another substantial $14,475 gain. The worst loss occurred from December 2014 to 2015 when copper declined 11.8%, generating a theoretical loss of $8,625. These numbers show this trade can produce big wins and big losses if not properly managed. A basic trailing stop loss may have mitigated many of the historical losses while also allowing the trade to run longer if copper continued to gain in price beyond February.

 

Link to full table, click here… [note: it is a long table and it was intentionally NOT included]

 

In the following chart, the front-month copper futures weekly price moves (top pane), and seasonal pattern (bottom pane) are plotted. Typical seasonal strength in copper is depicted by a blue arrow and yellow shading in the lower pane of the chart. Last year’s seasonal period is visible in the top pane of the chart. Since copper’s late July plunge its trend has been steadily higher, and dips have been brief, and relatively shallow. Interest rate cuts by the Fed could also boost copper demand due to potentially lower interest rates for autos and houses.

 

 

One option that provides exposure to the copper futures market without having to have a futures trading account, is United States Copper (CPER). This ETF tracks the daily performance of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return less fund expenses. Due to renewed interest in copper, CPER’s daily volume has improved, and it frequently trades in excess of 500,000 shares per day. Stochastic, relative strength and MACD technical indicators applied to CPER are all positive and trending higher. 

 

A position in CPER can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $31.75. If purchased an initial stop loss of $28.02 is suggested. This trade will be tracked in the Almanac Investor Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio. For tracking purposes, CPER will be added to the portfolio should it trade below its buy limit.

 

 

Another way to gain exposure to copper and its seasonally strong period is through the companies that mine and produce copper. Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) holds shares of some of the largest copper miners and producers from across the globe. Its top five holdings as of October 29, 2025, are: Lundin Mining, Hudbay Minerals, Antofagasta, First Quantum, and KGHM Polska Miedz SA. COPX could be considered on dips below a buy limit of $62.50. If purchased, an initial stop loss of $55.16 is suggested. This trade will also be tracked in the Sector Rotation section of the ETF Portfolio. For tracking purposes, COPX will be added to the portfolio when it trades below its buy limit.

 

 

 

The Sector Rotation ETF portfolio has improved to an average gain of 3.1% as of the close on October 29. Our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal was early this year, but market weakness ahead of mid-October provided ample opportunity to establish positions at better levels. SPDR Gold (GLD) is still the best performing position in the portfolio, up 18.6% (and more including today’s gains). Historically, seasonal strength in gold (and silver) has lasted until the end of December, but with gold briskly retreating from all-time highs in mid-October, the highs of the current seasonal period could be in. GLD is on Hold, and its stop loss has been raised. 

 

Although only a modest factor in gold’s price now, the U.S. dollar index has begun to show signs of a bottom. It has quietly climbed back to nearly 100 after hitting a low in mid-September. As a result we are going to close out positions in Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (FXE) and Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc (FXF). Sell FXE and FXF. For tracking purposes they will be closed out using their respective average prices on Friday, October 31.

 

Per last week’s email Issue, November Outlook: Octoberphobia Sets Up Q4 Rally & Best 3 Months, iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) has been added back to the portfolio using its average price on October 24 of $62.78. The previous IBIT position was stopped out after bitcoin’s failed breakout. IBIT can still be considered at or near current levels up to its buy limit of $62.56.

 

Tech, biotech, and semiconductors are all performing well in the portfolio with IBB, XBI, IYW, and XLK up an average of 6.5% since being added the day after the Seasonal MACD Buy signal triggered. IBB, XBI, IYW and XLK can still be considered on dips.

 

Looking at consumer related ETFs, XLY and XLP, they have not moved much, yet. The federal government shutdown, softer employment indications, and tariffs are likely weighing on retailers and consumers. We suspect the consumer is waiting for holiday sales to begin in earnest and for the Fed’s most recent interest rate cut to provide some modest relief. XLY and XLP can be considered at or near current levels.

 

All other positions in the Sector Rotation portfolio can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits or at current levels. Some buy limits have been adjusted, where applicable, for recent gains in the table below.

 

 

 

The “Best Months” are essentially here with November arriving next week, the market has been rallying, and we remain bullish as post-election year 2025 approaches its end and on into early 2026. This has been our stance since our Seasonal MACD Buy signal criteria was met earlier this month and it has been paying off thus far with the Tactical Seasonal Switching portfolio gain climbing to 2.5% as of the close on October 29. 

 

Tech continues to lead with QQQ up 4.8%. Small-caps have been in and out recently and could continue to bounce around and move sideways until around mid-December when the “January Effect” has historically begun early, pages 110 & 112 of the Almanac. “Best Months” positions, QQQ, IWM, DIA and SPY can still be considered at or near current levels up to their respective buy limits.