Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, May 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday April 29, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8436662026482509659      

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for May 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share assessments of the Iran war, economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events, gold, copper, energy, and relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

 

4/23/2026: Dow 49310.32 | S&P 7108.40 | NASDAQ 24438.50 | Russell 2K 2775.10 | NYSE 22952.74 | Value Line Arith 13120.69

 

Seasonal: Neutral. May is the first month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500, but NASDAQ’s “Best Eight” lasts until June. In midterm years, May has been tepid with only Russell 1000 eking out a 0.1% increase. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have all declined on average in past midterm year Mays. Instead of “Selling in May,” this year, a wait and see approach may be warranted as the Iran war appears to have pulled typical midterm year Q2-Q3 weakness into Q1.

 

Fundamental: Hazy. Despite tentative ceasefires, the Iran war is still ongoing. Economic data has softened and Q1 GDP is estimated at just 1.2% by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model as of April 21. Surging energy prices have pushed headline CPI to 3.3%, although there is still a possibility that energy prices can cool nearly as quickly as they rose. Thus far, the labor market has held up. Weekly initial jobless claims ticked slightly higher but remain at just 214,000 and the unemployment rate did decline to 4.3%. Q1 corporate earnings have held up. The concern remains the longer energy prices remain elevated, the more damage they are likely to cause.

 

Technical: Break out consolidation. From their respective late-March closing lows, DJIA is up +9.2%, S&P 500 +12.1%, NASDAQ +17.5%, and Russell 2000 +11.2% as of today’s close. S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have all closed at new all-time highs, DJIA has not. All four have reclaimed their respective 50- and 200-day moving averages. As a result of recent gains, technical indicators are at or near overbought levels. Some consolidation is likely as long as headlines allow. Levels to watch for the breakout to hold are S&P 500 around 7000, NASDAQ 23950, and Russell 2000 near 2700. For DJIA, staying above its 50-day moving average, currently near 47,900. 

 

Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. Fed interest rate policy appears be on hold as headline inflation remains stubbornly above target and possibly reaccelerating due to higher energy prices. The big question that remains is whether or not Kevin Walsh will be confirmed by the Senate to take over the top spot at the Fed when Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026. If confirmed, it appears unlikely there will be any major changes at the Fed however, we would welcome less “Fed speak” and forecasting.

 

Sentiment: Improving. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 48.1%. Correction advisors are at 30.8% and Bearish advisors were 21.1% as of their April 22 release. Bullish advisors have rebounded from just 33.30% in early April. Correction and Bearish advisors have seen a corresponding decrease. With the market hitting new all-time highs earlier this week, further gains in bullish sentiment are likely. As long as the increase does not reach extremes (Bullish advisors around 60%), overall sentiment appears supportive of further market gains.

 

The Iran war appears to have pulled the Worst Six Months soft patch and 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot (midterm Q2-Q3) forward. S&P 500 bottomed March 30 at 6343.72, down 9.1% from the January 27 all-time high, and has already erased the entire decline. As of the April 22 close at 7137.90 — a new record — the index is back at fresh highs, blowing through several resistance levels in the process after bouncing off technical support levels we highlighted. NASDAQ at 24,657 is also at a record and DJIA at 49,490 is just 1.4% below its February 10 ATH. The Best Six Months MACD Sell signal hasn’t triggered. As of today’s close, it would take a DJIA drop of over 6.7% and S&P 500 over 7.7% in a single day to trigger. 

 

The Iran ceasefire is holding up, yet the situation is fluid, as it appears there is a leadership vacuum in Iran and struggle for control. President Trump posted this morning that “Iran is having a hard time figuring out who their leader is!” He extended the U.S.–Iran ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, citing a “seriously fractured” Iranian government and a request from Pakistan, which continues to mediate. The original two-week truce brokered April 8 was set to expire April 22. It is extended without a new deadline, though the White House has signaled a small window for Iran to produce a unified proposal.

 

The blockade on Iranian ports remains in place. The Strait of Hormuz remains the leverage point. Hostilities have largely halted on the main front, with sporadic violations. The market has largely moved on and clearly expects a resolution at some point over the next few months, if not sooner. However, it is likely to mark time and move sideways, bouncing around through the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot and Worst Six Months as the conflict in the Mideast works toward a resolution with likely setbacks and the midterm election politicking ramps ups. 

 

 

Our bullish forecast for 2026 has not changed. Base case for 2026 remains 8-12% full-year gains. Typical midterm Q2-Q3 weakness likely came early in Q1 this year as the new Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle we discovered looks to be in play again. It’s uncanny how this seems to be a replay of not only last year, but a recurring pattern where President Trump has this penchant for stirring things up in Q1. Then negotiating and working the news flow to drive the market higher from Q2 through yearend. 

 

It was early in the morning on March 23 when the 5-day delay was announced that we had the epiphany to investigate this TACO Trade seasonal pattern of Q1 shock, Q2-Q4 awe. Five Trump presidency years — 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2025. Q1 turbulence, then a sustained rally into year-end. Art of the Deal, seasonal edition.

 

 

Adding the five Trump presidency years to our S&P Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern Chart below highlights the market’s strength and how we have so quickly come back in line with our STA Aggregate Cycle and 6th Year of Presidency trends, putting the old school bearish Midterm Election Year pattern that many were anticipating this year on the back foot.

 

 

Several positive market maneuvers happened in rapid succession. The December Low Indicator (DLI) which triggered in March on both DJIA and S&P 500 — a rare March trigger, has historically had a shallower follow-through when paired with a positive January Barometer. Prior March triggers averaged only –8.12% additional drawdown. This year's drawdown has been 9.1% on the S&P from peak to the March 30 low. Most importantly though, as you can see in the chart below is how DJIA quickly erased the loss and reclaimed the December Low Cross level and rallied to near record levels again. This fast recovery is precisely what we look for after a DLI trigger to signal a green light. The bullish history of a positive January Barometer lends further support to the bull case – S&P 500 is higher the next 11 months 87% of the time after a positive January, average gain 12.2%.

 

 

Trend is far more important than magnitude or level when analyzing and evaluating these seasonal charts and historical analogs. We have updated the S&P 500’s performance before and after the start of crises. The S&P’s quick recovery to pre-crisis levels and new all-time highs has been positive historically. But as this graph illustrates, after the initial shock and selloff, once the bounce back recovery occurs the market tends to mark time over the next few months as the crisis resolution plays out. This lines up with the seasonal weakness associated with the Worst Six Months and the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot.

 

 

This has also been one of the best April starts in history. S&P 500 was up 7.57% through the first 10 trading days of April — the 2nd best April start since 1950. When April started this strong the rest of the year was higher 20 of 24 years, 83.3% of the time, averaging +10.8%. Full years were positive 22 of 24, 91.7%, averaging +16.2%.

 

 

Current market action is reminiscent of last April when volatility receded after the Liberation Day tariff tumble and we began to get constructive on the market. In mid-May 2025 we deemed the technical breadth thrusts were verified and the market was off to the races. By the end of June we expected the rally to take us to new highs before a Q3 pullback. New highs were reached though the pullback came in early Q4. 

 

This year the market has reversed all the losses and moved to new highs even faster. Of the major averages only DJIA has not hit a record. But the stodgier old Papa Dow lagged the recovery last year as well. As you can see in the chart below DJIA bounced right off the 45000 support we noted that ran across the old highs from late 2024 and early 2025. 

 

S&P 500 found support in that 6300-6400 zone we noted last issue near last summer’s July peak and the late-August and early September lows. Now that we’ve cleared the January-February 2025 triple-top resistance at 7000 the new support zone is 6900-7000 between the late October 2025 high and the Q1 2026 highs. 

 

NASDAQ found support above the 20500 level around 20700 where that one-day correction transpired on August 1st last year. New support is around 24000 at the old highs from October 2025 and January 2026 that we just took out.

 

 

 

 

VIX closed at 19.31 today below the 20-30 nervous zone that concerns us. For context, VIX in the high teens to low twenties was normal throughout the 1990s bull market. And the direction is down from the 25–30 range that prevailed through March. Residual volatility here reflects headline uncertainty, not systemic stress. VIX is also non-directional and also implies upside volatility. We may not have reached extreme capitulation levels, though some other contrary indicator fear indexes did reach extremes such as the CNN Fear Index hitting 9 intraday at the end of March. Sustained bottoms don’t require complete market panic and the selloff itself has already been reversed.

 

 

Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal has not triggered yet. The Tactical Switching Strategy remains in force — we hold DIA, SPY, QQQ, and IWM until the Seasonal MACD Sell signal triggers. The criteria to trigger a sell signal is a 12-26-9 MACD crossover on or after April 1 on both DJIA and S&P 500, with both confirming. As of today’s April 23 close, DJIA would need a 6.7% single-day drop and S&P 500 a 7.7% drop to trigger a negative crossover sell signal. We are nowhere close. Continue to hold Best Months positions. We will send a Special Email Alert when the signal triggers.

 

The bearish narrative has been invalidated by powerful price action and strong market breadth. Recession calls, credit-stress calls, oil-shock-crushes-the-economy calls have all failed to materialize in the tape or the data. Our base case scenario for annual gains of 8-12% remains intact. Weak seasonal forces, uncertainty in the Mideast and surrounding the midterms are expected to weigh on the market for a few months before we hit the Sweet Spot of the 4-year cycle in Q4 and climb to significant new highs. Should the Iran conflict come to an expeditious resolution the market will likely be off to the races again.

 

(Disclosure note: Officers of Hirsch Holdings Inc held positions in DIA, IWM, QQQ, and SPY in personal accounts.)

 

 

In just a few weeks DJIA has nearly fully recovered from the losses inflicted by the Iran War. As of today’s close, DJIA is up 9.2% from its March 27, closing low, up 6.4% in April, and up 2.6% year-to-date. DJIA has also jumped back above its 50- and 200-day moving averages (1). The pace of the recovery has been brisk, but April is DJIA’s second best performing month of the year over the last 76 years.

 

DJIA’s sharp reversal in momentum has been confirmed by both slower and faster moving MACD indicators (2). Both MACD indicators were positive on April 1 and have remained so throughout the month. The strength and magnitude of DJIA’s gains have pushed both MACD indicators above the zero line. This is an encouraging setup for the Seasonal MACD Sell signal as new crossovers above the zero line have historically been more reliable indicators/confirmations. 

 

 

After declining during 10 of 13 weeks earlier this year, DJIA has logged three straight weekly advances of 3% or more (3). This is only the second time since 1950 that DJIA has achieved this and the last occurrence was in late May/early June 2020. After such a move, it would not be out of the question for DJIA to pause to consolidate the gains. This is likely what is happening this week in addition to the overall market digesting the latest Iran war headlines.

 

As impressive as DJIA’s recent gains have been, S&P 500 (4) and NASDAQ (5) have been even stronger. S&P 500 has been up 3.4% or more for three weeks in a row and NASDAQ has been up over 4.4%. Both have also closed at new all-time highs. Here again, some period of consolidation for S&P 500 and NASDAQ is likely. However, recent strength and the current trend suggest that the path of least resistance remains higher.

 

Market breadth over the last three weeks has been solidly positive with Weekly Advancers outnumbering Weekly Decliners (6) by over two to one. Should the market continue to consolidate this margin is likely to retreat, but as long as Weekly Advancers remain in the majority the market’s current bullish trend is likely to remain intact.

 

Bullishly, there has also been a corresponding improvement in the number of New 52-week Highs over the past three weeks. After falling to just 151 during the first week of April, New 52-week Highs nearly doubled to 284 last week (7). The retreat in New 52-week Lows has been even more impressive over the same period, dropping from over 300 to just 59. Looking ahead, a steady expansion in the number of New 52-week Highs would be supportive. New 52-week Lows are not likely to fall much further, but fewer would be welcome.

 

Inflation expectations have moved higher as crude oil prices linger at between $90-100 per barrel. This has greatly dimmed the near-term prospects of a Fed interest rate cut, which has kept the 90-day Treasury yield anchored right around 3.62%. Thus far, it appears the bond market is viewing this inflation pressure as likely limited to the near-term as the 30-year Treasury yield (8) has stabilized around 4.90%. As long as yields remain relatively stable (or decline), then the stock market is likely to remain positive. A meaningful move higher in Treasury yields could have the opposite impact.

 

 

 

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive. DJIA would need to drop 4770.50 points (–9.82%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while S&P 500 would need to decline 941.01 points (–13.36%) to turn its MACD indicator negative. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue the Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

 

The criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA, and S&P 500 is a new sell signal on or after the first trading day of April and both DJIA and S&P 500 must agree. The confirmation by both DJIA and S&P 500 is part of the criteria. For example, if DJIA’s Seasonal MACD indicator turns negative on a given day on or after April 1, but S&P 500’s does not, then there is no signal on that day. Both must be negative. 

 

Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12 (days), a long ema of 26 (days) and a 9-day-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

 

 

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,316,635 for November-April in 75 years compared to just $4,253 for May-October (STA 2026, page 54). The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $1,147,286 for November-April in 75 years compared to a gain of just $16,592 for May-October.

 

May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” only reinforced. It used to be part of what we once called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and NASDAQ suffering two losses. 

 

In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up sixteen times in the past twenty-eight years (five of the years had gains exceeding 3.9%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down –11.9% in 2000, followed by sixteen sizable gains of 2.5% or better and seven losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010 followed by another substantial loss of 7.9% in 2019.

 

 

Since 1950, midterm-year Mays rank poorly, #8 DJIA, #9 S&P 500, #6 NASDAQ, #6 Russell 1000 and #7 Russell 2000. Performance ranges from a best of +0.1% by Russell 1000 to a worst of –1.0% for Russell 2000. With nineteen years of data, only DJIA and S&P 500 have recorded more positive midterm Mays than negative. Russell 2000 has been down in seven of the last eleven midterm Mays. 

 

 

Over the last 21 years, the first three days of May have historically traded higher, and the S&P 500 has been up 19 of the last 28 first trading days of May. Bouts of weakness often appear around or on the fourth, sixth/seventh/eighth, and after the twelfth trading day of the month while the last four trading days have generally enjoyed respectable gains on average, but the last day of May has weakened noticeably. In midterm years, May has generally opened with a gain, but by the third trading day broad weakness has set in and lasted until nearly the end of the month. 

 

Monday before May monthly option expiration has been stronger than monthly expiration day itself. DJIA has registered only eleven losses in the last thirty-eight years on Monday. Since 1990, monthly expiration day has been a loser nearly across the board except for Russell 2000 with a slight average gain (+0.03%). However, over the more recent 25 years, monthly expiration day has improved with DJIA up 17 times. The full week had a bullish bias that has been fading in recent years with DJIA down seven of the last ten and S&P 500 down six of the last nine. The week after options expiration week tends to favor tech and small caps. NASDAQ has advanced in 25 of the last 36 while Russell 2000 has risen in 26 of the last 36 with an average weekly gain of 0.70%.

 

 

 

In the April 2026 Outlook Issue and its associated member’s webinar we observed the market was at a seasonal crossroads. April is the final month of the Best Six Months for DJIA and S&P 500 and it is also the beginning of the Weak Spot of the 4-Year Cycle during midterm year Q2-Q3, but late-March to early April has also been where the seasonal low during Trump-presidency years has typically formed.

 

The announcement of a two-week cease fire between the U.S. and Iran earlier this week and the resulting surge higher by the market has potentially put in an early spring market low. Whether or not the S&P 500’s March 30 close at 6343.72 is the final low of the year remains to be seen, but in the near-term the path of least resistance for the market does appear to be higher.

 

 

While geopolitical risks and energy markets remain key variables, the market appears to be absorbing these shocks more efficiently than many expected. If that continues—and especially if uncertainty continues to ease even modestly—the backdrop appears to be in place for the market to continue to push higher in the weeks ahead. Economic growth is still holding up, the labor market still appears to be on reasonably solid footing and although the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts is shifting, the Fed is still effectively neutral with monetary policy.

 

How high in the near-term? Depending on news headlines (and earnings results), S&P 500 could find its way back to around its old all-time closing highs reached in mid-February, which would be around 2-3% higher than its current level. Ride the rally and we will wait until the Seasonal MACD Sell signal to consider taking additional portfolio actions.

 

 

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive. DJIA would need to drop 5544.66 points (–11.51%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while S&P 500 would need to decline 733.05 points (–10.74%) to turn its MACD indicator negative. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue the Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

As a reminder to long-term and a refresher for new members, the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA, and S&P 500 is a new sell signal on or after the first trading day of April and both DJIA and S&P 500 have to agree. The confirmation by both DJIA and S&P 500 is part of the criteria. For example, if DJIA’s Seasonal MACD indicator turns negative on a given day on or after April 1, but S&P 500’s does not, then there is no signal on that day. Both must be negative. 

 

Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12, a long ema of 26 and a 9-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

 

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on April 8, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio advanced 0.7%, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, versus a 0.1% increase by S&P 500 and Russell 2000 over the same time. Based upon average percent, Small-caps performed the best, up 8.9%. Large-caps were second best, climbing 2.2% while Mid-caps retreated 1.0%. 

 

In accordance with last month’s Stock Portfolio email Issue, all seven stocks from the Utilities sector were added to the portfolio on March 13. As of the close on April 8, the seven new Utility stocks were up an average of 1.9%. Four are higher and three are modestly lower. Entergy (ETR) was the best performing position of the seven, up 9.0%. Exelon (EXC) was the weakest, down 1.7%. All seven utility stocks (shaded in gray in the table below) can still be considered at current levels or on dips.

 

Three positions were stopped out of the portfolio during March when the market was in retreat, Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT), Rambus (RMBS), and Amphenol (APH). BOOT is still trading below the price it was stopped out at while RMBS and APH have already rebounded back above their respective stop loss prices. We suspect there will be more market volatility later this midterm election year so we will move on from these three stocks. Getting whipsawed out of positions happens, but it is still disappointing.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) remains on Hold. Despite reasonably good earnings being announced back in March, there was little improvement in share price. Management reported revenue was up and adjusted EBITDA was positive. These are signs that management is potentially steering the company in the right direction, although slowly. 

 

On March 23, StoneX Group (SNEX) completed a 3-for-2 stock split for the purpose of making its shares “more accessible to employees and investors” (additional shares now available at a lower price). As a result of the split, SNEX’s Presented Price and stop loss have been adjusted. SNEX is on Hold. 

 

All other positions in the portfolio are on Hold.

 

 

 

If you were unable to attend this Wednesday’s member’s only webinar, April 2026 Outlook & Update, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar Jeff provided an update to the Iran war within the context of past geopolitical and oil shocks, reviewed the history of midterm-year conflicts (page 28 of STA 2026), discussed how this year’s Iran war is not analogous to 1966 Vietnam war escalation or Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, covered the Trump presidency seasonal cycle (including its early April low) and recapped the implications of DJIA closing below its December closing low in March.

 

There were also updates for select commodities and bitcoin seasonalities with a focus on the likely formation of a double top in gold and a potentially similar topping pattern in crude oil. In conclusion, the Base Case 2026 Forecast for 8-12% full-year gains remains in play. The Iran war may have pulled typical Q2/Q3 midterm year weakness forward to a degree while the lingering effects of higher crude oil prices could still lead to some typical midterm-year market volatility during the next two quarters, but the market is still likely to finish out the year on a positive note.

 

Risks to the Base Case outlook are numerous, but the market’s resilience suggests that once some resolution to the Iran war becomes clear, the path of least resistance is most likely higher. Economic growth is still holding up, the labor market appears to be on reasonably solid footing and although the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts has changed, the Fed is still effectively neutral with monetary policy.

 

 

As a reminder the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500 is a new sell signal after the first trading day of April and both DJIA and S&P 500 have to agree. The confirmation by both DJIA and S&P 500 is part of the criteria. For example, if DJIA’s Seasonal MACD indicator turns negative, but S&P 500’s does not, then there is no signal on that day. Both must be negative. Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12, a long ema of 26 and a 9-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

 

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive. DJIA would need to drop over 2088 points (–4.49%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while S&P 500 would need to decline over 159 points (–2.42%) to turn its MACD indicator negative. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

 

 

 

The Iran war, Strait of Hormuz, surging crude oil and slipping stock market were the dominate themes in headlines throughout March. As a result, multiple positions in the Sector Rotation ETF portfolio were stopped out in March. EZU, XLP, XLV, XLI, XLB, CPER, and COPX were all closed out with gains. IYW, XLY, XLF, XLK, and VNQ however were closed out with losses. The weakest positions were technology, consumer discretionary, and financial related. Many of these positions did rebound modestly this week but with no clear end to the Iran war in sight they struggled to maintain that positive momentum today.

 

Per last month’s update, positions in biotech, IBB and XBI were closed out on March 5, using their respective average prices on that day. The average gain for IBB and XBI was a respectable 17.2% excluding any dividends and fees.

 

SPDR Energy (XLE) is the best performing position in the portfolio, up 33.9% as of the close on April 1. On March 30, XLE came within $0.21 of its auto sell price but has since pulled back even as crude oil has moved higher. XLE’s pullback could be due to some profit taking or it could be an early indication that traders and investors think crude oil’s surge higher is nearing its end. Regardless of the precise reason, XLE’s stop loss has been increased to $55.55 and it is on Hold.

 

February’s new trade ideas targeting natural gas, FCG and UNG, have produced mixed results. FCG was added to the portfolio on March 5, and due to it also having exposure to crude oil, was up 5.8%. UNG, however, is down 7.2% as ample domestic supply and limited export capacity have contained its price. It will likely take an early spring cold snap or heat wave (that triggers an increase in electrical demand from air conditioning) to boost its price in the near-term. Longer-term, the current disruptions to international supplies of LNG could spur investment and renewed interest in export of natural gas. FCG and UNG can be considered below their respective buy limits.

 

Last month’s trade idea, SPDR Utilities (XLU) was added to the portfolio on March 5 and is currently fractionally lower. XLU can still be considered at current levels up to its buy limit. 

 

All other positions in the portfolio not previously mentioned are currently on Hold.

 

 

 

As of yesterday’s close, the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio had an average loss of 1.1% excluding dividends and fees. iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is the sole position still in the green, up 1.7%. SPDR DJIA (DIA) was down 0.2% while SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) were down 2.3% and 3.6% respectively. 

 

Prior to the start of the Iran war and its resulting surge in crude oil price as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz essentially came to a halt, positions had been on track for approximately average “Best Months” gains. Despite the nearly doubling of crude oil’s price, the prospects of relatively brief interruption to energy supplies appear to be keeping the market’s retreat from accelerating. Should shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz resume soon, the odds of a relief rally, that push the Best Months positions back into the green, would improve. However, the Weak Spot of the 4-year cycle, Q2 through Q3 of this year still looms. Beyond the usual midterm year politics, the market could be challenged by the lingering aftermath of higher energy prices and other supply chain disruptions that have resulted from the Iran war.

 

In preparation for the upcoming “Worst Months,” five bond ETFs appear in the table below. AGG and BND are multi-duration bond ETFs and generally exhibit less price volatility than TLT. Short-duration Treasury bond ETFs, SHV and SGOV offer relatively stable prices with respectable yields around 3.5%. With money market funds and CD’s also yielding up to around 3%, cash is another reasonable option to consider for the upcoming “Worst months.” When the Seasonal MACD Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggers we will look to move into some combination of these bond ETFs and cash.

 

As a reminder, positions in the Tactical Switching Strategy portfolio are intended to be held until we issue corresponding Seasonal MACD Sell Signals after April 1 for DJIA and S&P 500 and after June 1 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000. For this reason, there are no stop losses associated with these positions. If you are trading the Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle strategy outlined on page 64 of the 2026 Almanac, midterm-year signals should be heeded as well.